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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


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1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Touch and go 1-3cm looking at PPN totals taking away 25% ish 

Cheers for that @Surrey

got a feeling Thursday may prove better for our neck of the woods

although saying that tonight looked good on sunday

you just never can tell until it’s happening

everyone will be watching the rain for those first sleety bits waiting for the turn

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Best of luck to the SE gang tonight ?

Evening All, I hope other Members have no objection but just wanted to post up a Wintry Slideshow, for our Kentish Members. But I hope all Members will enjoy these very Wintry photos, from around

Best of luck yo you guys and girls in the South. Don't give up hope if it starts as rain. It rained here for about 2 hours now it's heavy snow. You should be good for a few cms also as it's very heavy

Posted Images

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

no? you mean high levels of no snow, high levels of nothing or high levels snow lol

It’s an old Netweather phrase when snow was expected but all we get is ‘no’ (no snow!)

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looks like we have to wait until valentines day for proper cold now lol until then more marginal crap off the Atlantic

1 minute ago, Great Plum said:

It’s an old Netweather phrase when snow was expected but all we get is ‘no’ (no snow!)

so no snow expected?

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Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Thursdays looking good for everyone even had some wet snow this morning. 

It can’t be good for everyone jay! 

I would still be cautioning too high expectations ....I think this evening will be pretty localised re settling away from elevation and Thursday needs watching as still no solid agreement on the trough - our area sits at the mercy of higher dp’s off the channel if the flow swings to s or sw 

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1 minute ago, smith25 said:

i have a good feeling about today!.  i think (hope) the totals will be 5+ cms in my neck of the woods...

Let's hope so, but reading the latest forecast on the met office site, it doesn't sound too promising for us. Let's just hope for a nice surprise!

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2 minutes ago, smith25 said:

i have a good feeling about today!.  i think (hope) the totals will be 5+ cms in my neck of the woods...

I wouldn't pay any attention to either to MO or the bbc at this point. Just keep looking at the radar !! It's a nowcasting event in my opinion, anything from nothing to 5+cms as you said depending on specific timings and trajectory etc.

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It was -3.7c when I left the house and a hard frost on the ground, which is like concrete.  Judging by the last few days I suspect this will last most of the day in the shadier parts of the garden, so hopefully as cold Base for any snow to settle on. Fingers crossed

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Just now, lassie23 said:

Lot's of blocking in the model waffle discussion thread this morning, mostly of other net weather members and people's post?

Cold weather and snow always brings the best and worst out of people..

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4 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Let's hope so, but reading the latest forecast on the met office site, it doesn't sound too promising for us. Let's just hope for a nice surprise!

To be fair I'll be happy with just a covering of it at this point.

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13 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Let's hope so, but reading the latest forecast on the met office site, it doesn't sound too promising for us. Let's just hope for a nice surprise!

What? This forecast? We've had several years in a row in the past when never had a forecast like this. It's as good as it gets given the marginal situation. 

Screenshot_20190129-073624.png

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21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It can’t be good for everyone jay! 

I would still be cautioning too high expectations ....I think this evening will be pretty localised re settling away from elevation and Thursday needs watching as still no solid agreement on the trough - our area sits at the mercy of higher dp’s off the channel if the flow swings to s or sw

With regards to Thursday, I think we are probably 12-24hrs away from having good confidence about Thursday. Certainly for those close to the coast it's very marginal indeed on most models.

I am encouraged though that the UKMO and ECM are near clones for our neck of the woods for Thursday, but the GFS solution can't be totally ignored, even when taking into traditional bias.

My personal confidence is somewhere around 85% right now for Thursday giving some settling snow.

Edited by kold weather
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I posted up a photo of my daughter's snow covered car, yesterday and here's a few of the young lady, herself. Hayley my daughter, is on the left with my son Antony, next to her. Their English Cousin, next to them and the other three, are their Italian Cousins.

gallery_2739_1518_418737.jpg

Hayley and Antony, outside Naples Airport.

gallery_2739_1518_347024.jpg

Finally, Antony and Hayley either side of their friend at the V Festival in Chelmsford, I believe.

gallery_2739_1518_1478.jpg

So Lassie, there's your Racing Competition "Nemesis" and all you Arsenal fans out there, fellow Gooners!!

But for all you Tottenham fans (Pete, Hotspur and Kentspur), you can throw plastic darts at them, if you like!! :oldgrin:

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Edited by TomSE12
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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

With regards to Thursday, I think we are probably 12-24hrs away from having good confidence about Thursday. Certainly for those close to the coast it's very marginal indeed on most models.

I am encouraged though that the UKMO and ECM are near clones for our neck of the woods for Thursday, but the GFS solution can't be totally ignored, even when taking into traditional bias.

How is the Icon looking for Thursday Kold, been quite impressed with that.

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