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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

So the 18z suite are nearly all in, just waiting for the 18z ECM.

GFS OP holding firm on its less favourable track for the south, the ensembles are also broadly going with the op, though more are snowy for the south than the OP.

ICON is way south, maybe too far IMO, though total snow event if right.

GFSP has come a fair way south with the snow with snow for pretty much the whole region, but maybe turning sleety/rainy right at the back end for the far south. It has 5-6cms quite widely from this front on Thursday.

Lets see what the 18z ECM has in store for us tonight!

Where can I find the ECM 18z Kold?

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4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Strange I know, the northerly was not very cold at all in the end. These sort of little lows moving down the north sea used to produce snow showers in April, even early May, now it's rain even in late January. Just don't seem to get that cold any more unless its a beast from the east set up and -15c uppers!:olddoh:

It seems to be quite hard to get snow in Southern England compared to the rest of the British Isles, maybe its the reality of the climate.

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I thought it was supposed to get colder as we head into February, the BBC is adamant that it will be milder next week 

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4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Where can I find the ECM 18z Kold?

Its part of a paid subscription so not free to hand out unfortunately. I'll call it a night after the 18z ECM, tomorrow is going to be a long day I feel for good or ill.

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Just now, Nqp15hhu said:

It seems to be quite hard to get snow in Southern England compared to the rest of the British Isles, maybe its the reality of the climate.

Well they have been moaning even in the north and the west country people have said that they have only has a bit of frost so far. It just seems to me that we can't achieve a period of prolonged cold any more, like a couple of weeks worth in mid winter, strange really. I can't remember the last cold northerly for example with -10c air flooding south and snow showers with troughs moving inland, we just get the wishbone effect of flurries and rain on the coasts. ohhh well, maybe it will be all change from tomorrow.

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5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Well they have been moaning even in the north and the west country people have said that they have only has a bit of frost so far. It just seems to me that we can't achieve a period of prolonged cold any more, like a couple of weeks worth in mid winter, strange really. I can't remember the last cold northerly for example with -10c air flooding south and snow showers with troughs moving inland, we just get the wishbone effect of flurries and rain on the coasts. ohhh well, maybe it will be all change from tomorrow.

Well I have been in Norwich for almost 4 years for University, and every year it is mostly just frosts and a few slushy deposits. Bar last year, it doesn't snow too often here. 

 

Edited by Nqp15hhu

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4 hours ago, Weather Wonder said:

Another 50-100 miles further south and you can guarantee no where in the south east will have bread or milk for sale, that’s if there any left after tomorrow’s event 😂

 

Edit: this is my first post in the SE thread for a couple of years, this is a pic of the beast from the Scottish borders last winter, I hope we get to see similar In the snow starved south this winter.

87027BF6-FB1F-4438-8F66-73FFBA671927.png

Lol that happened here, while we were under the high, just because it was cold lol, god knows what the shops will be like now pmsl.

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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Lol that happened here, while we were under the high, just because it was cold lol, god knows what the shops will be like now pmsl.

Closed I think

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A rather sobering post from @Catacol in the mad thread... lets hope tomorrow/Wednesday and Thursday give us our snow fix because as it stands the prospects for February are not great... all subject to change though obviously. 🤨 

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@TEITS in the mad thread on the other hand has shifted to being more inclined to interesting developments 

Edited by Swave Snow

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Only because the ec46 has jumped to less cold for Feb some posters are giving up on this winter now, like catacol etc which is frankly unbelievable when you consider how awful the ec46has been, in its forecasting this winter and we still have the METO going for very cold weather in feb, but that seems to have been ignored. 

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2 hours ago, snowrye said:

Cant wait for brexit,then we wont have to give europe our snow

Lol if only brexit could fix, that, and also the other problems we have.

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Interesting catch up from my Reading Travelodge. None the wiser about Tuesday, but there are snow symbols back in the MO forecast, so I'll go with that. I have plenty of lamp posts outside the window here. 

Unfortunately I'll be at the mercy of TFL on Thursday afternoon, which is frustrating as I normally work from home, but hopefully it'll be nice to be out in it, even if it's a slow journey home. Everything crossed 🙃

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The latest Regional Met Update still gives us all some hope it mentions rain probably turning to snow this evening and then says about a thaw of lying snow on Wednesday (suggesting it could settle) talk of more sleet and snow after this too Thursday to Saturday 🙂🤞☃️

Edited by Kentspur

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I will take a few hours of snowfall with a dusting later tonight. Thursday there will be probably be disruptive snow, i can predict this because i won't be in the region - sod's law!

Edited by Bricriu

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4 hours ago, lassie23 said:

I thought it was supposed to get colder as we head into February, the BBC is adamant that it will be milder next week 

"For a short while" I believe PS Thin cloud cover here.

Edited by Biggin

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Tonight will be a nowcast situation for sure, but the latest run of the UKV has pepped up the back edge of the snow-band across London, Kent and Essex. Heaviest looks likely between 21Z and 00Z with the last clearing the extreme east of Kent around 01Z.

Thursday is complicated, too complicated to look into until a few more model runs are out!

Good luck tonight if you're hoping for snow 😄

Edited by essexweather

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Live SLP

Incoming.. 

eur_full.thumb.gif.6e3264f4280238daa3ffbcd2531330b6.gif

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lol  i think  after looking  at the radar  and what in coming it could  be  fun getting  home later   this  place  will go wild!!:cold:🏂

Edited by tinybill

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Wonder what carol is going to make of all this👀👀

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5 hours ago, Icebox said:

A rather sobering post from @Catacol in the mad thread... lets hope tomorrow/Wednesday and Thursday give us our snow fix because as it stands the prospects for February are not great... all subject to change though obviously. 🤨 

It's been the most frustrating winter I can remember with so much promise all the way back from December. Since the end of the first week of January the models having been promising cold snowy weather with the beast that always fails to appear. Even today's event for us according to the BBC weather just now has downgraded the snow to rain and just the very back edge giving what they said "patchy snow but some in the SE missing it altogether "

They do however think we will get heavier snow come Thursday down here but no doubt that will get watered down nearer the time.

Really hoping Febuary delivers for everyone .

March is always are best chance these days but it's just a shame we can't get it in the peak time of Jan,Feb when the days are shorter .....

 

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Carol showed it as rain predominantly for tonight. Not taking her too seriously as it's a nowcasting event and high res graphics always underplay it.

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Morning all,

It looks like the Models have finally agreed with the track of this small feature, running to the south of us, today.

image.thumb.png.aa070a3f09d8923e5a04930bb3e8cab5.png

It tracks down into France. There's likely to be an initial period of rain but hopefully that will turn to snow, as colder air digs back down from the N.W., as we go through the evening. Some of us could get lucky and see a few cms, especially over high ground.

image.thumb.png.398a998fc9f2dbe1b76896a6ee638c3b.png

Then our attention turns to the track of Thursday's Low. This a much more potent feature and we just have about enough "wiggle room", for this to be a little further South but at the moment, this could be a snow to rain event but who knows, we may get lucky. The main snow risk still looks to be to our N/N.W, over the Midlands and Wales, at the moment.

image.thumb.png.b5e0a0618a6bd4f2afa8288d18640c05.png

image.thumb.png.2bf0061d6b192b285aabcf4c678606f3.png

As you can see from the above 850 chart, the upper air temps start to lift out, especially in the South of our Region. It's not out of the question that we could see the unusual prospect of a snow > rain and back to snow event, as colder air starts to dig back down, from the N.W., overnight Friday, into Saturday.

image.thumb.png.b72c1b6e18137377d28414c3c3a49bd5.png

Thereafter, it does look to turn milder for the first full week of February. Having just seen a recording of MeteoGroup's, Weather For The Week Ahead (with Matt Taylor). He did mention that there could still be some colder snaps, as weather systems, clear through.

It still looks as if some Models are "sniffing out" some tentative height rises to our N/N.E, as we head towards, mid-February. But that's a long way off, still.

I really hope some around our Region get to see some decent snowfall, in the next few days. Should that happen, I'll look forward to seeing your snow "pics".

Good luck to all.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

 

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