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Blessed Weather

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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13 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Ummm...

The ICON has gone off on one tonight and gives the whole region a snow event, home counties in the pivot zone, although the front does weaken fairly quickly from that point onwards.

I'll wait and see what the high resolution ICON shows, however it is certainly one of the most south runs xompared to every ensemble/operational run of all models (probably top 10 lowest out of probably 110 ish).

Begun the nowcasting has

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2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I just to add to my post above (almost as if I'm giving my old sports commentary on The Day Today) that 'Bluearmy' has taken up the cold batten and refuses to lose. 🙂

Fair play to BA, Dog with bone springs to mind. 

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4 hours ago, Surrey said:

Well.. 

We not currently starring down the barrel of an Atlantic onslaught. 

As predicted end of Jan beginning of Feb turning colder (already is) 

Snow prospects for many of us over the coming days.. Not just our part of the island 

Second winter in a row that a "delayed" winter.. 

Is seasons shifting associated with climate change? 

Can we expect our seasons to move around further? 

 

I think seasons can often be a bit topsy-turvy in this corner of Europe. The second half of winter is generally colder here than the first and it’s much more likely to have cold and snow in February and even March than it is in December. That fact often seems to be forgotten, for some reason. 

As you say, it’s great to see some decent potential for snow this week and no major signal for an upcoming Atlantic bore-fest. There are signs that February may turn out to be very cold 🥶 (my Mum even did a snow dance last night!).

I await you posting more charts and your analysis of them, I (and I’m sure many others) enjoy reading your thoughts (and those of other posters) even though I may not agree 100% of the time. 

Edited by stainesbloke

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The latest Beeb forcast at 21:25 had Paris and most of France expecting 10-20 cms of OUR SNOW! 😡

However there was also a large area of snow over the entire SE and EA for tomorrow so maybe we will see something a little decent 🤷🏻‍♂️

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Cant wait for brexit,then we wont have to give europe our snow

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13 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Guys

I want to get in early and try to stop the doom and gloom posts that are going to happen around 4-7pm tomorrow in this Regional Thread. Why are these posts going to happen I hear you say ?? Well simple, it will RAIN first before the precip turns to snow. You might see, WHAT A BUST, You might see, WHAT A PATHETIC COLD SPELL, You might see, WE ONLY GET SNOW FROM EASTERLIES

Please Please Please watch the Video Dan has posted up, and please watch all nearly 7 minutes of it, you might learn something, you might already know what he is describing, but more importantly it lays out what is expected to happen and why some places have people swinging from the Chandeleers with Heavy snow whilst others have a wintry mix

Thanks to Dan (Staplehurst) for putting this Video together

Very informative but hardly exciting regarding snow prospects. Nothing particularly significant unless we get lucky on Thursday.

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8 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Cant wait for brexit,then we wont have to give europe our snow

Works both ways, they won’t give us their easterlies 😥

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1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Ah the same question we have had for the past 15 years.

We tried a 3 counties and a Norfplk/Suffolk Group before but then those regionals went dead and everyone went back in with the SE & East Anglia around 9 years ago so there you have it. If you want to frequent the East Midlands, Lincs threads then by all means be my guest

I think where to stick Essex was the problem.  But that’s far wider than weather, I guess.

in fairness I didn’t know what thread to choose, I mean our neck of the woods is much closer to Kent than Norfolk.

So, anyway, Crown Hill on Thursday, I’ll beat ya ?

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3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

But hopefully it shows people just how hard it is to predict wether its going to be Snow/Rain/Sleet/Pellets etc on an Atlantic Front. The good thing it shows is the Milder air around late afternoon which should hopefully stop all the crying posts saying "But its 5c It;s never gunna snow" And also shows the Colder Uppers undercutting into the front turning the rain to snow.

I just wanted to hilghlight the fact to people on how things could/should play out

I never said it was exciting.

I thought it was a brilliant post and a very informative video.  Certainly cleared up a few questions for me 😊

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Can't wait until spring so that the daft bickering is over.

No one season brings out the morons like winter. There are no cold v hot, or wet v dry arguments in the summer, yet this time of year brings all the nutters out of the woodwork.

True, the days have probably gone of deep snow drifts I had back in the 80's & 90's. Winters aren't what they used to be, and probably never will be again, but it's been chuffin freezing last week, and this, we've had some snow last week, and are due some more tomorrow, Thursday, and maybe Friday and Saturday.

And it's not even February yet, where we statistically get our coldest weather. 

This weeks snow has came along very quickly, from nowhere, so how anyone can assume what will happen in 7 days time, let alone what will happen in a months time, is beyond me.

 

I come on these boards to learn about the weather, but I spend most of the time sorting out the wheat from the chaff.

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18z Pub run is already upgrading tomorrow...Yes I know, I know...But it has been drinking Carlsberg...

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2 minutes ago, Vesuvius said:

I think where to stick Essex was the problem.  But that’s far wider than weather, I guess.

in fairness I didn’t know what thread to choose, I mean our neck of the woods is much closer to Kent than Norfolk.

So, anyway, Crown Hill on Thursday, I’ll beat ya ?

Haha Crown Hill around 9pm on Thursday could be an evacuation route downhill only, certainly the 5 bus routes wont attempt to get up it if the ICON is correct for Thursday.

Yh I seem to remember the North part of Essex wanted to be with the East Anglians and the Southern Parts of Essex wanted to be with London and the Home Counties, then we had the problem of where Cambs, Beds and Bucks was put.

Cant please everyone

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28 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Guys

I want to get in early and try to stop the doom and gloom posts that are going to happen around 4-7pm tomorrow in this Regional Thread. Why are these posts going to happen I hear you say ?? Well simple, it will RAIN first before the precip turns to snow. You might see, WHAT A BUST, You might see, WHAT A PATHETIC COLD SPELL, You might see, WE ONLY GET SNOW FROM EASTERLIES

Please Please Please watch the Video Dan has posted up, and please watch all nearly 7 minutes of it, you might learn something, you might already know what he is describing, but more importantly it lays out what is expected to happen and why some places have people swinging from the Chandeleers with Heavy snow whilst others have a wintry mix

Thanks to Dan (Staplehurst) for putting this Video together

Thanks for posting that. I found it very useful. A great explanation of the situation.

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1 minute ago, Bogman said:

Can't wait until spring so that the daft bickering is over.

No one season brings out the morons like winter. There are no cold v hot, or wet v dry arguments in the summer, yet this time of year brings all the nutters out of the woodwork.

True - but haven’t you seen the wrath that ensues when a MCS comes up from France in the summer only to veer off to the east at the last minute, giving a classic Kent clipper? 😳

Currently -0.8c DP -4.8c and clear...lots of stars tonight 

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GFS 18z has the precip coming later in the day and staying longer. An all round upgrade but only one model.

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-01-28 at 21.53.23.png

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Dry and clear, -2.9C.

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6 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

True - but haven’t you seen the wrath that ensues when a MCS comes up from France in the summer only to veer off to the east at the last minute, giving a classic Kent clipper? 😳

Currently -0.8c DP -4.8c and clear...lots of stars tonight 

Ha ha, true. 

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7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Haha Crown Hill around 9pm on Thursday could be an evacuation route downhill only, certainly the 5 bus routes wont attempt to get up it if the ICON is correct for Thursday.

Yh I seem to remember the North part of Essex wanted to be with the East Anglians and the Southern Parts of Essex wanted to be with London and the Home Counties, then we had the problem of where Cambs, Beds and Bucks was put.

Cant please everyone

Yeh, things can be so localised. Even in our area.  I’ve seen it both ways.  Snow clipping Southend, Leigh, but ignoring Rayleigh to the north and vice versa. Let’s hope we all see something soon, good to speak again Paul, best, David 

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So tomorrow, the fun starts and sets the theme for the rest of the week. Thursday/ Friday look tasty for heavier snowfall and lets see where our winter train keeps going. Admit ! "yes" not been a fruitful Winter so far and what a roller coaster with prozac for many getting of the ride....but ! its not over by along shot and just getting interesting.  

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16 minutes ago, Bogman said:

Can't wait until spring so that the daft bickering is over.

No one season brings out the morons like winter. There are no cold v hot, or wet v dry arguments in the summer, yet this time of year brings all the nutters out of the woodwork.

True, the days have probably gone of deep snow drifts I had back in the 80's & 90's. Winters aren't what they used to be, and probably never will be again, but it's been chuffin freezing last week, and this, we've had some snow last week, and are due some more tomorrow, Thursday, and maybe Friday and Saturday.

And it's not even February yet, where we statistically get our coldest weather. 

This weeks snow has came along very quickly, from nowhere, so how anyone can assume what will happen in 7 days time, let alone what will happen in a months time, is beyond me.

 

I come on these boards to learn about the weather, but I spend most of the time sorting out the wheat from the chaff.

i hear that and endorse you. Problem is that forums allow trolling, bad behaviour never gets penalised apart from deleting something. There will always be chaff,  therfore, its a free for all and thats how it is, lot more amatuers than profesional forecasters on here (hazarding a guess 😉), me included in the former. But i do fluid mechaics for a living and that involves mathmatical models.... shame i stil dont understand the weather. Havent got time. if i did,  I'd read some decent books 😉. Im interested in LRF as it affects my work. But im not getting far...

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28 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Works both ways, they won’t give us their easterlies 😥

Putin will be kind

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2 hours ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Perhaps I need to brush up on my chart reading skills because I still think tomorrow evening looks alright but the general consensus says otherwise. 

From reading the last 10 pages, It depends on what your expectations are, and your location.

I will be satisfied if we get a couple of hours of snow and a dusting- like we did last week.

 

Ah who am I kidding! I want 60 cms of snow, everytime, but i doubt we would get that even with the perfect easterly setup, so i must adjust my expectations accordingly!

 

1-3 cm tomorrow night into Wednesday will do nicely!

 

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2 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Putin will be kind

i think that his lot are patrolling this site...! i had a post removed from the hunt for cold thread for daring to say that the thread was becoming an embarrassment to the forum....

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1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

From reading the last 10 pages, It depends on what your expectations are, and your location.

I will be satisfied if we get a couple of hours of snow and a dusting- like we did last week.

 

Ah who am I kidding! I want 60 cms of snow, everytime, but i doubt we would get that even with the perfect easterly setup, so i must adjust my expectations accordingly!

 

1-3 cm tomorrow night into Wednesday will do nicely!

 

for starters I agree 

thursday a big top up would be nice

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