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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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Brighton is under yellow warning today, it wasn’t yesterday. I’m not really expecting much but still looking forward to watching the lamppost. Just in case!

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1 minute ago, Sharpedge said:

Daniel, if you live in Strood, why would you want that feature to go south?  Really interested to know, assume your Strood is just east of London.

So that it brings this region into the "sweet spot". Largest accumulations still look likely to be well North of here 

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Still hoping for something tomorrow night here with the elevation I have, time will tell as always!

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Tuesday and into Wednesday is looking less exciting on the latest model output for our region with a thin slushy covering a more likely outcome. Saying that, last Tuesday gave many of us a wonderful surprise snowfall, so who knows. 

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Just now, Nqp15hhu said:

We have the NW wind. I think the atmosphere is just saturated.

Yes, Dps still to high in Norwich and Weymouth at around 2c, just down the road out of the North Sea flow they are more like -2c

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As of the 9:56 BBC forecast, 3-6cm still expected down to low levels in essex/Kent maybe a little further north too.

 

Edit: I'm talking about Tuesday.

Edited by Jackski4
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5 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Yes, Dps still to high in Norwich and Weymouth at around 2c, just down the road out of the North Sea flow they are more like -2c

Surprised by that as the EURO4 showed the showers turning to snow at 3am-6am. 

Edited by Nqp15hhu

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nothing any of us can do about it so best not to speculate and just wait and see what happens. 

que sera sera

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1 minute ago, username home said:

nothing any of us can do about it so best not to speculate and just wait and see what happens     que -sera sera

ok Doris, I suppose "whatever will be will be"  😁

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Forgive the terrible map, it's surprisingly hard to find a map that shows the SE and East Anglia

istockphoto-670756860-1024x1024.thumb.png.58e62442c7ffbebdfa82dc5e3922ad62.png

Red zone has highest potential for seeing an all snow event - Elsewhere likely to see rain > snow.

South coast likely to see falling snow with intensity/any altitude but rain/sleety/snow mix more likely so lowered accumulating snowfall here. Red zone 3-4cm widely, 6-10cm with any higher ground/heavier bursts.

FAX chart shows the front pivoting a little over our region which could give an hour or two of extra snowfall, worth watching!

FAX.thumb.gif.72d2ea833c9dff553b52557e746e04d6.gif

Edited by Daniel Smith
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7 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

As of the 9:56 BBC forecast, 3-6cm still expected down to low levels in essex/Kent maybe a little further north too.

 

Edit: I'm talking about Tuesday.

I can see the MO warning has been updated. The expected amounts haven't changed but the warning area has been expanded a bit.

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Forgive the terrible map, it's surprisingly hard to find a map that shows the SE and East Anglia

istockphoto-670756860-1024x1024.thumb.png.58e62442c7ffbebdfa82dc5e3922ad62.png

Red zone has highest potential for seeing an all snow event - Elsewhere likely to see rain > snow.

South coast likely to see falling snow with intensity/any altitude but rain/sleety/snow mix more likely so lowered accumulating snowfall here. Red zone 3-4cm widely, 6-10cm with any higher ground/heavier bursts.

Brilliant Daniel, I know it’s imby, but for the layman that is nice and clear.  Thanks for taking the trouble to produce that.

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8 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Surprised by that as the EURO4 showed the showers turning to snow at 3am-6am. 

Must say i was fully expecting reports of a dusting in places this morning, seems we are going to have to fight for it.

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6 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Must say i was fully expecting reports of a dusting in places this morning, seems we are going to have to fight for it.

Norwich doesn't do well with snow. Just a slushy covering most winters.

Edited by Nqp15hhu

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Just a word of caution for any newbies that visit the MO thread during a build up like this, you get a lot of negative posts just because it doesn't show what that persons backyard is going to expect, you always get a fee ramps when it does show favoured situations for that person. The problem is people read that then pop into the region threads and spread the doom, gloom and the ramps.

Luckily in this thread everyone is pretty level headed.

 

 

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I think this is called hedging your bets..

Screen Shot 2019-01-28 at 10.24.43.png

Edited by onepingonly
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2 hours ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Not looking particularly great this morning. Wonder if those warnings will he removed at all?

Warnings look better?

Wonder what they are seeing, that we are not. May be they expect the low to swing northeast, off the southeast, like some models have shown, but that seems to be the outside chance.

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I thought there would be a bit more enthusiasm and excitement on here? Finally get a yellow warning of potential snow which most of us have been waiting for and it seems like most are trying to find a reason why it shouldn't happen?

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32 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Is it?

ICON

ICON.thumb.jpg.d5e040a6c0a5282cc8e11ac706e3c21f.jpg

HIRLAM

HIRLAM.thumb.jpg.a3acc06cd404e9666666b84e24b470a8.jpg

GFS

GFS.thumb.jpg.af06b18423b0a321d875d64598cd0ccd.jpg

Euro 4 (note, doesn't cover the entire duration yet)

EURO4.thumb.gif.43e3c87dfdc45ad11bd438200970a364.gifEURO42.thumb.gif.ba968e2e6d14a3560e18cc5ee2867bf5.gif

Nothing has changed really. 2-3cm quite widely, 5-10cm possible over the hills/where heavier bursts develop along the frontal boundary.

Just my tuppence worth, all looks very close to marginal to me and I’m not a fan of slush. But the Met Office are still expecting some snow cover for most of our region, that’s positive. 

Edited by stainesbloke
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Breezy, very dark, and sleeting...2C. It's coming!:yahoo:

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06Z is a sidegrade if anything, still showing the 12ish hours of snow over Medway but in a slightly different pivot. 

What I would give for an Easterly, the past few years anything coming in from the NW has been a bit of a washout for us. 

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I think there isn't that much excitement because this winter has been abysmal for us down here with so much potential which just hasn't materialized. Even now the long term view from the Met office is for it turn colder in early Feb etc, but the Models don't appear to be picking this up, does that mean another false dawn? It could well be!

As for tomorrow night the parameters needed for snowfall look to be marginal, so it's entirely possible that people will wake up Wed morning and not find any settling snow. Hopefully not because the way this winter has gone, this week could be our best chance of lying snow until next Winter.

I'd take lying snow for 24 hours from this awful Winter right now! 

As you can tell, I'm a bit peeved about this Winter, I think it was the background signals (let alone the SSW) which peaked my interest and raised my expectations. However, to finish on a more positive note I'm hopeful that we will see some snow in Feb/March. El Nino type winters favour back end Winters for us and traditionally it seems we get our best chances later in Feb/March for snow!

 

 

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