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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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just looked in the model waffle discussion thread and the low is too far north and too far south and not low enough for snow lol

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3 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Wish someone would make a diagram of predicted snow. I don't trust the Met Office, they're not likely to produce a map of realistic predicted snowfall. 

they are probably best placed to - you trust them less than some of the rampers on here ??

Edited by Badgers01

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4 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

have to agree, so many factors come into play, despite what some of the rampers will say

Yes. I’ll be very surprised if I am not able to get to work in East Grinstead on Wednesday despite having to drive through Turners Hill. But I will have my winter gear in the car because you never know!

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Just now, Nqp15hhu said:

Wish someone would make a diagram of predicted snow. I don't trust the Met Office, they're not likely to produce a map of realistic predicted snowfall. 

No one can make a realistic map of predicted snow fall.  It's a hard thing to predict and depends on so many things.  I would love some snow on weds though.

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15 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

I like this.  Just been in mad thread and according to cherry picked charts you could be forgiven thinking us in the south/se will miss out and get rain. I do feel sorry for newbies looking at that thread.

Lol was thinking exactly the same. Some people get immense pleasure from trying to show charts that show the S.E. missing out, time and time again. It’s the small penis, chip on shoulder, inferiority complex syndrome . I just have to chuckle 

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1 minute ago, Badgers01 said:

they are probably best placed to - you trust them less than some of the rampers on here ??

It's difficult to get a picture of what to expect here due to the large variation in the charts. I have noticed that the met Office under predict snowfall amounts, it would be nice to see what we could realistically expect. 

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Lol Canadiancoops.  At least being on Blue  ell Hill gives you a great chance for the white stuff when I get sleet.  Let's hope all the northerners will be looking at our part of the world with snow envy come Friday 😀

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52 minutes ago, Nick F said:

12 EC for 6pm Tues, midnight and 6am Weds. Nowt too heavy generally, apart from Essex and Suffolk coastal areas. Again, not to taken literally in what is a dynamic and fluid situation liable to change.

88C030B5-8946-4EEB-9FD8-17DA453F7769.thumb.png.34edc33906512c5ec75c111a783b0c7c.png74C52176-36AB-4C6E-9DC1-61EB0D511265.thumb.png.35868e42a6c036a2ff45f2a3d6fd4a6f.pngB72106BD-1221-4DEB-AAB6-C7D36133492B.thumb.png.04b834b76832ae903df30fba59267730.png

 

Interesting that N&W Kent and some of Essex and SE/E London have snow already at 6pm on this.

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Just now, Nqp15hhu said:

It's difficult to get a picture of what to expect here due to the large variation in the charts. I have noticed that the met Office under predict snowfall amounts, it would be nice to see what we could realistically expect. 

Problem is there not even agreement between various models at less than 48 hours out. It’s a ‘nowcast’ type with many variables and being quite marginal. Tough one 

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Just now, Snow Queen one said:

Lol Canadiancoops.  At least being on Blue  ell Hill gives you a great chance for the white stuff when I get sleet.  Let's hope all the northerners will be looking at our part of the world with snow envy come Friday 😀

I’ll blow some your way. Good thing is it’s not an easterly where we take all the snow out the air before it gets you. Think you’ll do ok being further from the coast this week 😁

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Good evening, just popping in to wish you all luck with the Tuesday snow. I hope it comes off for you lot. I have mates in Cambridge and Canterbury and I really want snow there so they can send me some good photos as I've only ever visited in the summer. This week is a bit of a nightmare forecast wise, it reminds me of 'slidergate' last year here in the north west (amber warning to yellow to nowt) but hopefully the powers that be can forecast this one a bit better. It's radar/lampost watcher for sure!

Edited by Mark88

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1 minute ago, CanadianCoops said:

Problem is there not even agreement between various models at less than 48 hours out. It’s a ‘nowcast’ type with many variables and being quite marginal. Tough one 

😣 there wouldn't be any marginal cobblers if this was Canada 😣

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2 hours ago, jright35 said:

It was Tom who carried this out

how long ago was that, i cant remember, but it was a laugh

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11 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

No one can make a realistic map of predicted snow fall.  It's a hard thing to predict and depends on so many things.  I would love some snow on weds though.

UK Weather Updates on Twitter posted a map. He says he will update also.

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13 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Lol was thinking exactly the same. Some people get immense pleasure from trying to show charts that show the S.E. missing out, time and time again. It’s the small penis, chip on shoulder, inferiority complex syndrome . I just have to chuckle 

It’s ironic they moan about not mentioning their back yards up north, everyone is guilty of location bias and so what, if model related Tuesday puts the southeast in firing zone not them, Thursday, they have their go! I think they think we have a vendetta against them, funny that we seem to be more on the receiving end! 

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Just now, Hammer said:

UK Weather Updates on Twitter posted a map. He says he will update also.

I have not got Twitter so didn't know.  Maybe someone can post it on here

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18z Euro4 is in, low further south but band of heavy looking snow moving our way. Probably start off a rain/drizzle Tuesday afternoon then turning to snow late evening.

19012918_2718.gif

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18z suite showing a bit of a downgrade on both potential and more of a risk of marginality this run. This is due to the LP weakening quicker than expected which also starts to weaken the front and thus reducing totals. 

Thursday still up in the air, and if I was north of the Thames (can't bare to say that moterways name!) I'd be getting more interested. Exact angle and location is key. South of the Thames, especially further west are at the moment low risk of snow unfortunately. Still more than enough time for change however!

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I want all snow,is it too much to ask for,6 bloody years for a decent snowfall,and even this event looks like it will go out on a whimper

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

18z suite showing a bit of a downgrade on both potential and more of a risk of marginality this run. This is due to the LP weakening quicker than expected which also starts to weaken the front and thus reducing totals. 

Thursday still up in the air, and if I was north of the Thames (can't bare to say that moterways name!) I'd be getting more interested. Exact angle and location is key. South of the Thames, especially further west are at the moment low risk of snow unfortunately. Still more than enough time for change however!

Yeah, it looks like it's gone from a SE event to a more Midlands event on Tuesday and Thursday on the latest models. In fact, the front on Tuesday basically fizzles out as it heads SE. Interesting changes and see whether they continue tomorrow. 

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snowrye  dont just look at  tue and wed keep a eye on  the rest of the week, but i would not like to call it  as snow is nowcast weather. slight change and no snow

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2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Should i start panic buying mushrooms yet?

Love a good mushroom 🤣

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1 hour ago, Jayces said:

 

Just after reading through 12 pages of content, and now it seems like Tuesday will be a non event. It all loooked so promising on page 152.

It will be a real kick in the teeth if we don't see snow at some point during the week. I could live with Tuesday being a non event, if Thursday delivered.

Actually, I would  get over missing out on both if we ended up with a raging blizzard, due to a channel low, on the 16th of February, that dumped a foot and a half snow widely across the region.

 

 

Edited by Bricriu

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