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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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Think im in the sweet spot, also every time we always get a few cms more in my location than foretasted so hopefully in for a good dumping. 

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Just now, Hammer said:

Would be nice but tempering expectation a little.

I'm just going by the latest UKMO PPN charts 

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Here is our little fella moving into Cornwall @T48 on the 12z Euro4 thats just come out. Looking very good indeed, lets hope it moves east through the channel though and not SE into France. Still lots of PPN though to the north of the low so looking odds on now that most of us will see some snow on Tuesday night I would think.

19012912_2712.gif

All models show the actual low moving in to France. Some less deep further south those deeper further north.

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3 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

Think im in the sweet spot, also every time we always get a few cms more in my location than foretasted so hopefully in for a good dumping. 

I hope you're right, I'm not far from you 😊

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1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Once it becomes conductive of snow it will settle very quickly. 

Remember you can have settling snow on wet ground.. 

I've seen the switch take place within 5 minutes it's quite a sight and only seen it a handful of times... 

All noted but those MO precipitation charts only really show one very heavy 6 hour period the rest is quite light - temps will only be just around 0c not below like March will be very drippy if precipitation rate is not intense. Also location of 528 DAM line should temper expectations a bit it’s behind the front that is bringing the precipitation at midday Tuesday ..

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never really that cold this week 5c mostly not far off the average 

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UKMO is very snowy indeed BUT it is worth remembering it is very much at the extreme end of the suite of 12z models at the moment. not to say it can't happen, but most runs are still keeping this as a frontal system crossing the UK, rather than the jackpot that the UKMO has.

What a jackpot that would be.

I've tracked the 6hr mean and it is NOT a new low, but the same low pressure system, very close to a technical channel low, but not quite!

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Possible adjustment of Met Office warning then. Amber maybe for parts of Kent, Sussex, Essex. Then yellow still for similar area to before is my thinking. 

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6 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

I'm just going by the latest UKMO PPN charts 

They are just precipitation charts though - uppers / thicknesses / surface temps all still look marginal at given time frames ... could be a boom or a bust still ..

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

UKMO is very snowy indeed BUT it is worth remembering it is very much at the extreme end of the suite of 12z models at the moment. not to say it can't happen, but most runs are still keeping this as a frontal system crossing the UK, rather than the jackpot that the UKMO has.

What a jackpot that would be.

I've tracked the 6hr mean and it is NOT a new low, but the same low pressure system, very close to a technical channel low, but not quite!

UKMO normally prerry good at this range though?

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4 minutes ago, Hammer said:

All models show the actual low moving in to France. Some less deep further south those deeper further north.

I know, but it would be nice if it did stay further north, never know could get lucky.:oldrolleyes:

 

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1 minute ago, Hammer said:

UKMO normally prerry good at this range though?

My money is on the UKMO. Surely can't be wrong 48 hours out?

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3 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Possible adjustment of Met Office warning then. Amber maybe for parts of Kent, Sussex, Essex. Then yellow still for similar area to before is my thinking. 

Agreed it will certainly have adjustments made before Tuesday.

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

I know, but it would be nice if it did stay further north, never know could get lucky.:oldrolleyes:

 

Sure it may well be further North, no question. But it looks like consensus currently takes it in to France not up channel.

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Excess of 20+cms perhaps even a red warning especially as this is around London. Who knows ? Guess we'll see soon 

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Everything's looking very exciting for our part of the world, wouldn't get too bogged down with how much snow we'll get, will chop and change between now and Tuesday - in general it looks like we'll all see something though 

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1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

My money is on the UKMO. Surely can't be wrong 48 hours out?

I think that the worse that can happen now is that they downgrade the intensity of PPN, thats my only worry. So instead of 3-10cm+ we end up with 1-3cm, still better than nothing of course. 

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37 minutes ago, snowking said:

UKMO raw continues to show the northward spread across this region of some slightly more intense precipitation, and a general slow down of the system as it moves across us

532B549B-503D-4CA2-978E-A4A598C20E09.thumb.png.87bd3737b1fd89bbbc99f10e43db673e.png5A6BBA14-A38C-4661-8BA0-C4B6027FBEA2.thumb.png.543ed5ea3e3beb606666dbbacc603e03.png

Loving that, even London getting some heavy snowfall there.:oldgood:

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3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

My money is on the UKMO. Surely can't be wrong 48 hours out?

Now your showing your a newbie to this model watching lark... never believe they cannot backtrack until T12 or even T6. Nothing is a given, yes its looking good and hopefully will come off. But do not for one minute think this is a done deal.👍

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What’s the feeling on marginality for those of us near the coast?

As an East Sussexer it all looks quite exciting but worried it could be rain and sleet here.

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I would say the UKMO is within the range of what is possible, and nothing more than that at the moment.

Most models are still going for just a fairly sharp frontal event, maybe 2-3hrs of mod-heavy snow then clears to the east. For now, that is also the horse I'd back, but with the caveat that the UKMO has been pretty stubborn with this set-up now for a few runs, and so its certainly possible...

But not probable...at the moment...

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1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Once it becomes conductive of snow it will settle very quickly. 

Remember you can have settling snow on wet ground.. 

I've seen the switch take place within 5 minutes it's quite a sight and only seen it a handful of times... 

Agree , actually seen snow stay intact in puddles before once the temperature fell below 0 . Conditions can change for settling snow very quickly having seen this myself on a handful of occasions .

Edited by Mark wheeler
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23 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

never really that cold this week 5c mostly not far off the average 

And if you add on the night temperatures you end up below average;)

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ECM 12z pretty much has low in same place as GFS around 990mb and in to NW France. 

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21 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Excess of 20+cms perhaps even a red warning especially as this is around London. Who knows ? Guess we'll see soon 

lol calm down

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