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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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Still time for changes, but the totals being forecasted now are a real kick in the teeth

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GFS 12z going with a deeper low and in to NW France. Further north than Icon 12z.

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GFS super consistent strangely enough, upgrades the snow for us, low remains further north. Awaiting UKMO now with bated breath...:oldrolleyes:

gfs-0-54.png

gfs-2-54.png

gfs-2-60.png

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4 minutes ago, snowray said:

GFS super consistent strangely enough, upgrades the snow for us, low remains further north. Awaiting UKMO now with bated breath...

gfs-0-54.png

gfs-2-54.png

gfs-2-60.png

Well?😁

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8 minutes ago, snowray said:

GFS super consistent strangely enough, upgrades the snow for us, low remains further north. Awaiting UKMO now with bated breath...

gfs-0-54.png

gfs-2-54.png

gfs-2-60.png

Has GFS been consistent I thought it hadn't made much of low up to now?  But GFS Para had been.

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3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Well?😁

Arpege going for another snow event on Friday, ICON was not so good but its a 50/50 change I'd say. 

arpegeeur-2-114.png

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Arpege going for another snow event on Friday, ICON was not so good but its a 50/50 change I'd say. 

arpegeeur-2-114.png

Friday as well? Woah. Have you seen UKMO for Thursday?? Think we might be in a winter wonderland by Saturday 

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image.thumb.png.9e447ebe048eacc6c81bcd25b51f12df.pngUKMO 12z places the low on Tuesday further North. Probably more snow for Southern regions with that chart than the ICON 12z. Good news for snow.

Edited by SouthLondonCold

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7 minutes ago, snowray said:

Arpege going for another snow event on Friday, ICON was not so good but its a 50/50 change I'd say. 

arpegeeur-2-114.png

Thursday into Friday is going to be a bigger deal than Tuesday 

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Looking good for Tuesday and now Thursday/Friday in my opinion anyway. Thoughts guys?

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Upgrades all round 😋

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9 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Friday as well? Woah. Have you seen UKMO for Thursday?? Think we might be in a winter wonderland by Saturday 

UKMO is blinking fantastic, on its own though so far though, maybe the ECM will support it.

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GFS and UKMO with a deeper low than ICON. Low in to NW France. UKMO at 120 promising.

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12 minutes ago, snowray said:

Arpege going for another snow event on Friday, ICON was not so good but its a 50/50 change I'd say. 

arpegeeur-2-114.png

Interesting, there have been some ensembles members/a couple of operationals that have been chucking in troughs and weak fronts into the south or west. In such a cyclonic flow, I wouldn't be all that surprised to see something crop up from stage left.

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5 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Looking good for Tuesday and now Thursday/Friday in my opinion anyway. Thoughts guys?

Tuesday into Wednesday looks good at least for my location met office shows 12 hours of snow. The only risk would be the ICON 12z solution if the low is too far south and we get a thin line of precipitation. I don't think the rain risk will be too great as long as far enough from the coast, as per the met office yellow warning. Thursday to Friday has potential but very uncertain at the moment with the strength and position of the low. UKMO 12z for thursday/friday looks good with the low not too strong and too the south of us.

image.thumb.png.5d6242ddac155622c64cedd8f3b054de.png

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4 minutes ago, SouthLondonCold said:

Tuesday into Wednesday looks good at least for my location met office shows 12 hours of snow. The only risk would be the ICON 12z solution if the low is too far south and we get a thin line of precipitation. I don't think the rain risk will be too great as long as far enough from the coast, as per the met office yellow warning. Thursday to Friday has potential but very uncertain at the moment with the strength and position of the low. UKMO 12z for thursday/friday looks good with the low not too strong and too the south of us.

image.thumb.png.5d6242ddac155622c64cedd8f3b054de.png

Agreed. Potential next weekend too according to APERGE. 

 

Edit: And GFS!

Edited by Jackski4

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3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Looking good for Tuesday and now Thursday/Friday in my opinion anyway. Thoughts guys?

Certainly looking very nice, we are almost there with Tuesday now but have to remember how many days and runs its taken to get here, have to keep our feet on the ground still regarding Thursday, there are still a lot of possible outcomes, i think we may have to wait until Tuesdays low outcome to really firm up on Thursdays.

The good thing about chasing Thursdays prospects is that a fair few of us should see snow falling whilst we do. 

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6 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Certainly looking very nice, we are almost there with Tuesday now but have to remember how many days and runs its taken to get here, have to keep our feet on the ground still regarding Thursday, there are still a lot of possible outcomes, i think we may have to wait until Tuesdays low outcome to really firm up on Thursdays.

The good thing about chasing Thursdays prospects is that a fair few of us should see snow falling whilst we do. 

i thought tuesday was still subject to change

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8 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

i thought tuesday was still subject to change

Yes it will be right up to Tuesday, which is why i shall wait till post low to get any excitement for Thursday.

Actually, reading my post back i think its clear its subject to change.👍

Edited by Chris101

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1 minute ago, Chris101 said:

Yes it will be right up to Tuesday, which is why i shall wait till post low to get any excitement for Thursday.

Oh to hell with it! Everything is going to be perfect where are my dancing shoes!

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Hints in the Models this afternoon of what the MO have been consistently banging the drum for in their mid/long range outlook.

Hope so as a very cold Feb with E/NE winds would be a nice end to Winter.

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In the here and now, winds really blowing in the North of the region as per meto warning.

Wraparound trough may slowly be turning more sleety as the sun drops and temps drop off.

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4 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Hints in the Models this afternoon of what the MO have been consistently banging the drum for in their mid/long range outlook.

Hope so as a very cold Feb with E/NE winds would be a nice end to Winter.

My first thoughts on UKMO run tonight was how much it matched their 6-15 a few days ago.

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45 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Upgrades all round 😋

Seems to be heading in the right direction mate

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:bomb:Just posted this on the other thread, T48 FAX, no change, with the low further north, full marks to the boys at the Met Office.:yahoo:

fax48s.gif

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