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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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GP has just posted on the mad thread about the EC06z and apparentely the low is going south eastwards towards BREST with precipitation to the north but not much

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Heavy hail shower ar moment so grass going white early. 

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the stuff coming off the north sea looks interesting?

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8 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

GP has just posted on the mad thread about the EC06z and apparentely the low is going south eastwards towards BREST with precipitation to the north but not much

The low's exact positioning is still uncertain and even GP will/should know this

Edited by yamkin

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I think what's on our side for Tuesday's potential snow event is that the trough/front to the north of the low moving east over England and Wales  (marking the boundary between cold polar air from the NW and less cold air wrapping around the low over France) will move across our region after dark during Tuesday evening/night.

Precipitation may start of as rain/sleet, because of less cold air ahead of the front drawn up by the low over France, but being dark freezing levels will likely become lower and evaporative cooling more efficient when the cold air undercutting the front arrives from from the west.

If this front was moving through the day, then it would likely be more marginal and would rely heavily on precipitation being heavier enough for evaporative cooling to be efficient for snow to fall to the ground.

Anyway, track and timing of the front and the low itself still not certain, not sure we want the low much further north, as a danger we could draw in too much less cold air from the SE. Potential the front may be slower than shown, so that could prolong snowfall too. Then freezing over early hours Wednesday as the front clears could make it rather icy for the Weds commute!

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Just had a short, sharp graupel/sleet mix shower in Bexhill.

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29 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Too much undertainty (both good and bad) still to bother mentioning it. They probably won't make more than a passing reference to it until Monday evening in all likelihood. Instead they will probably just play it safe and not even mention what is due to happen down the line.

Yep, unlike me who will tell someone at work tomorrow by at least 9.02am

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7 minutes ago, yamkin said:

The low's exact positioning is still uncertain and even GP will/should know this

I suppose even GP cant be right all of the time but I do tend to listen to forecasts and take them on board

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6 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

I suppose even GP cant be right all of the time but I do tend to listen to forecasts and take them on board

He us just relaying what the 6z ECM showed (we don't see this run).

Edited by Radiating Dendrite

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I noticed just now that the Met Office site has just updated, heavy snow symbols for most of the SE throughout Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, the snow finally moving away east/north east but still some snow around at 9am. This is likely to change again of course but its been upgrading the period of heavy snow since yesterday afternoon when it was showing mainly light snow over night. 
Areas just south of London looking like doing best of all.

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1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

He us just relaying what the 6z ECM showed (we don't see this run).

I suppose the answer is to watch the radar and lamppost watch 😁

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Radar getting more showers forming in our area

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1 minute ago, tinybill said:

Radar getting more showers forming in our area

Yes, I asked about this, this morning in regards to snow fall tonight for our region.

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Afternoon peeps 😊

Hope you all are having a wonderful afternoon. Here in Walthamstow I think we have got a streamer of passing showers mix of rain and hail. I am excited about Tuesday into Wednesdays snow event fingers crossed I really hope I will be posting here then and saying it's a whiteout. I wonder if these showers are going to turn more and more wintry as the day goes on. Fingers crossed for our second snow event.

the wait for our winter wonderland continues

wishing you all a lovely afternoon 

Kind regards 😊😊😊😊

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33 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

GP has just posted on the mad thread about the EC06z and apparentely the low is going south eastwards towards BREST with precipitation to the north but not much

Hi, ECM 06z is almost identical to ALL other models, it has 1-2 inches throughout our area, max is about 2.5 inches. Low pressure (at 988mbs) does take a similar track to the GFS. Only runs out to 90hrs so can't tell about Thursday yet.

I've got access to it now, fwiw.

 

Edited by kold weather

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Hi, ECM 06z is almost identical to ALL other models, it has 1-2 inches throughout our area, max is about 2.5 inches. Low pressure does take a similar track to the GFS.

I've got access to it now, fwiw.

 

cheers Kold , I know its a bit iffy for our area (thanet) but will live in hope and lamppost watch

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3 minutes ago, tinybill said:

Radar getting more showers forming in our area

Yep watching it, must be a trough about, because it seems to be building over land, doesn't seem connected to any streamers in the northwest. And back building to the north too. May get interesting, as long as temps drop a bit too.

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Lamp post  at the ready ? Is it that time of year again 😂 better get my ladder and polish my lamp post thank god I don’t have one that goes off ! 

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3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep watching it, must be a trough about, because it seems to be building over land, doesn't seem connected to any streamers in the northwest. And back building to the north too. May get interesting, as long as temps drop a bit too.

Yes wraparound trough coming down the north sea seems to be beefing showers up coming through the South of the region from the Cheshire gap area.

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Wow Thunder and lightning twice here in last minute, @Chelsea kings Road 

Heavy Rain maybe a tad sleety 

Edited by Mark wheeler

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2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Wow Thunder and lightning twice here in last minute, @Chelsea kings Road 

Heavy Rain maybe a tad sleety 

Having a pre match pint or two 😉 ?  A nice unexpected bonus to get T & L as well.

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Thunder here in Kennington! This wasn’t forecast 

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