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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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Viewed MOD thread out of curiosity but not a nice atmosphere and thought I would come back to a friendlier regional thread.We are still at early stages for Tues night/weds morning and I will be looking at Hirlam  tomorrow evening as I found this model the most accurate when forecasting the snow last March(hope I haven’t jinxed it now).MET OFFICE have had to put warning out now but there is huge uncertainty at this stage and without putting a damper on it it could be removed this time tomorrow morning.Conversely it may upgrade to an Amber warning for a few lucky spots-it is that type of fluid situation.

 

I am just sitting back and what will be will be-yes would be disappointed if it all goes TU but as we have found out over the years the UK weather is so unpredictable and that is why we are all drawn into these forums!,

Edited by Hotspur61

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1 minute ago, Hotspur61 said:

Viewed MOD thread out of curiosity but not a nice atmosphere and thought I would come back to a friendlier regional thread.We are still at early stages for Tues night/weds morning and I will be looking at Hiram tomorrow evening as I found this model the most accurate when forecasting the snow last March(hope I haven’t jinxed it now).MET OFFICE have had to put warning out now but there is huge uncertainty at this stage and without putting a damper on it it could be removed this time tomorrow morning.Conversely it may upgrade to an Amber warning for a few lucky spots-it is that type of fluid situation.

 

I am just sitting back and what will be will be-yes would be disappointed if it all goes TU but as we have found out over the years the UK weather is so unpredictable and that is why we are all drawn into these forums!,

To me it shows "some" confidence albeit not on exact track and exact area but we get broad idea from this 1st warning. Eyes on when they update the area tomorrow.

 

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7 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Same as. 10 years driving in canadian snow does help but I can understand those that don’t drive much. My missus would be a danger to others in the snow (more so than when it doesn’t snow lol) 

I just hate the stereotypical oh southerners cant cope blah blah.... we all see the footage from up north or wales when they get snow with miles of traffic, or buses stranded on hills etc etc.... its the same all over in this country. Our infrastructure isnt set up for it, doesnt mean we cant drive in it

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4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

That models thread is so toxic and over analysed. Every run is like the be all or end all of winter. Not to mention nobody seems to get on. Think a lot of people there have got a case of small willy syndrome and need to focus on the weather more than personal egos..

 

Anyway,

GFS para very good for down here both Tuesday and Thursday... That's the important thing. Beyond that, Well the MO is saying that colder air is going to follow in behind on Friday, and I'm going with them. Despite all the negative nancy's on the thread saying winter is over 

Give it time you'll soon understand who to listen to and who to scroll on by.

There's a little band who turn up with a bad run, their posts usually start "I've been saying all along"😂

Lots of wannabe forecasters who write stuff with no idea of what they are saying. So many on Friday gone were writing posts detailing the complete collapse of the cold this Thurs coming with full agreement from all models and this was our last chance at winter. 24 hours later they are trying their hand at in depth analysis again forgetting their claims from the previous day.

As I say you get used to who the respectable posters are that know what they are talking about. Luckily for us we have probably the best of them in our regoinal😁😉

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All of course subject to change but I’m 10 miles inland and just outside the yellow zone!

Might need to take a drive up to Crowborough, as this often seems to be a sweet spot (inland plus altitude).

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1 hour ago, Hammer said:

Thoughts on Thursday? seems promising from some comments in MOD thread.

Never trust anything that is said in there 

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7 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Sleety  shower here

Thats you had your winter fill then -

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7 minutes ago, yamkin said:

 

The uncertainty mentioned in that tweet was highlighted on the forecast just before noon on the news channel it said "bringing a spell of persistent rain but maybe something slightly more hazardous"

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"We have hail.." 

 

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With the best will in the world ignore the Beeb forecast until the day, they won't commit yet simply because there is still some uncertainty regarding to the set-up. A small chance this low gets so strong it goes over the SE and brings a snow-rain-snow mix. VERY small chance but not impossible. Also small chance that the front doesn't develop as expected. Once again small chance but it is there.

Until those set-ups are gone, I don't think they will totally commit other than what is expected.

I think for Tuesday's low I'll be concentrating in here from now on, purely because its all going to become very IMBY in the model threads.

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10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

"We have hail.." 

 

So do we. In Southend today

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50 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

I just hate the stereotypical oh southerners cant cope blah blah.... we all see the footage from up north or wales when they get snow with miles of traffic, or buses stranded on hills etc etc.... its the same all over in this country. Our infrastructure isnt set up for it, doesnt mean we cant drive in it

Such a cliche, Northeners tough softeners soft, I find it so dull. Will be out working in it all week, gonna be a long week.

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Quick glance at MOD thread and there continues the theme of getting hung up on FI/ D10 charts. Rinse & repeat since November 2018

Yet, we have possibilities of cold & snow during the next 5 days. 

I don’t get it, are members confusing their love of cold and snow, when it’s actually FI rainbow charts that really float their boat?

Very odd. 

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BBC weather on tv just now did not even mention tuesday evening/ wednesday morning and nothing about possible travel disruption, do they know something we dont.

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Hail here at the moment, exciting ,holding my breath and fingers crossed for this event, hopefully it will happen, well we deserve a treat

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3 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

BBC weather on tv just now did not even mention tuesday evening/ wednesday morning and nothing about possible travel disruption, do they know something we dont.

Up to you what you watch, but little point in watching them forecast Tuesday/Wednesday yet. The Met Office warning and the broad consensus from models suggest snow. 

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6 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

BBC weather on tv just now did not even mention tuesday evening/ wednesday morning and nothing about possible travel disruption, do they know something we dont.

Too much undertainty (both good and bad) still to bother mentioning it. They probably won't make more than a passing reference to it until Monday evening in all likelihood. Instead they will probably just play it safe and not even mention what is due to happen down the line.

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14 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

BBC weather on tv just now did not even mention tuesday evening/ wednesday morning and nothing about possible travel disruption, do they know something we dont.

low trending south as expected, unlikely to cause much trouble.... im praying it travels through the channel but unlikely

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moderate Hail & snow here

Temp down to 3.9C

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7 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Up to you what you watch, but little point in watching them forecast Tuesday/Wednesday yet. The Met Office warning and the broad consensus from models suggest snow. 

I do agree with you but early morning forecast on bbc showed the evening/night in question and said "possible travel disruption" but  it will come down to where the low goes I suppose

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Not got anything yet, but that area seems to be building on radar, looks like a trough, was it expected?

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Just now, steveinsussex said:

low trending south as expected, unlikely to cause much trouble.... im praying it travels through the channel but unlikely

Consensus is for low to go in to NW France and that has broadly been idea. Unlikely to be in channel. So nothing has changed for BBC. They just arent commenting. But are on Twitter etc.

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2 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

I do agree with you but early morning forecast on bbc showed the evening/night in question and said "possible travel disruption" but  it will come down to where the low goes I suppose

Nothing has changed, no model runs since. Warning issued by Met Office is broad idea of snow potential. 

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