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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Being east means a smaller draw across the channel which should in theory mean less modifications, especially for Kent which will help as well, but I'd say time if day us the bigger factor. At least on the ICON...though the ICON was perhaps a little conservative with snow potential.

Also 06z icon has total snow event for this region on Thursday away from the coasts (say 15-20 miles inland).

Just checked - I'm 36 miles due north of Brighton.....Hopefully far enough inland and east enough. 

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You can just about make it out..

 

Edited by lottiekent
Added link instead
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Met office have now issued a yellow warning for snow for the south east & East Anglia Tuesday night 👍🏻

Edited by lewis028
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5 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Your links seem to always be downloads? Do you have the direct link so we can view in the browser?

Sorry, didn’t realise - uploaded to YouTube so hopefully that helps?

 

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4 minutes ago, lewis028 said:

Met office have now issued a yellow warning for snow for the south east & East Anglia Tuesday night 👍🏻

have looked at warning and If a line was drawn from approx herne bay to sandwich then east of that is not included in the warning

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Can anyone in the Norfolk Suffolk area last time we had snow that came in from the west that has caused distribution? Everytime this event Comes in from the west, we either have the front fizzle out, or cold wet/ sleety rain, I’d be absolutely shocked if I was to come here on Wednesday morning to say we have a white out.

Edited by slater

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That warning looks exactly what I was thinking of, maybe too marginal right on the coast but 10-20 miles inland looks ok.

Further east is at less risk of the system coming through sooner and stating more as rain for longer. Luckily the trend thus far today has been to actually sligjtly slow down the progress of the frontal systems movement. Even a couple of hours may make the difference between a rain-snow event, and a pure snow event. I think Kent/Essex/Suffolk/Norfolk have a fair shot at getting a pure snow event. I think places further west of there may have at least some rain beforehand to deal with, but once the snow starts it shouldn't make much difference.

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Wind really picking up here , weather app keeps changing its mind about a snow event for Wednesday in Uxbridge 

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9 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Sorry, didn’t realise - uploaded to YouTube so hopefully that helps?

 

That's better 😀

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06z GFs has shifted north for Thursday due to the angle of the LP and the shape which is not great.

However it is now on the northern end of the model range so nothing yet too be concerned about on that front and obviously we have Tuesday to get through first.

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Between 21:00 Tue 29th and 12:00 Wed 30th

Snow, possibly heavy at times, developing overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance of travel delays on roads with some stranded vehicles and passengers, along with delayed or cancelled rail and air travel
  • There is a slight chance that some rural communities could become cut off
  • There is a small chance that power cuts will occur and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected

Regions and local authorities affected:

  • Bracknell Forest
  • Buckinghamshire
  • East Sussex
  • Greater London
  • Hampshire
  • Kent
  • Medway
  • Milton Keynes
  • Oxfordshire
  • Reading
  • Slough
  • Surrey
  • West Berkshire
  • West Sussex
  • Windsor and Maidenhead
  • Wokingham

Further details

A band of rain pushing east across parts of England is likely to turn to snow during Tuesday evening, with snow continuing into Wednesday. Accumulations of 1-3 cm are likely quite widely, with accumulations of 5 cm in places. There is a small chance that some areas could see up to 10 cm, more especially over the higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-01-29

Edited by Summer Sun
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6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Coastal/near coastal areas not in 😞 

C7AC5458-626C-46A3-9863-FA1CCC77E91A.png

Yeah. I'm out in Eastbourne. So gutted. 😭

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Not in the yellow warning,dear o dear,lol,a shift southwards of 20 miles though,and game on

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11 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Coastal/near coastal areas not in 😞 

C7AC5458-626C-46A3-9863-FA1CCC77E91A.png

This is why we shouldn’t get too carried away 

5701B67F-8299-4489-A226-C03F2123D6C7.png

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Yep as expected, I miss out again. 😡

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1 minute ago, snowrye said:

Not in the yellow warning,dear o dear,lol,a shift southwards of 20 miles though,and game on

Its because I think they are going for a more northerly option which is not good for coasts..

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Those on the south coast will always struggle simply because ahead of the front winds will be southerly, for coastal areas and places within 5-10 miles that onshore flow is complete killer for settling snow. I'd be surprised especially in Kent coastal towns if there won't be snow but whether it is likely to settle well enough to justify a yellow warning, that is probably questionable.

I'm happy with the 5-10cms range for most of us here, maybe a little more IF the front is slower than expected in moving west, and a lot less (1-3cms) IF the front is a little quicker, with maybe the warning zone reducing in size to take out western parts. DFor now I think the METO warning is bang on the money however.

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Those on the south coast will always struggle simply because ahead of the front winds will be southerly, for coastal areas and places within 5-10 miles that onshore flow is complete killer for settling snow. I'd be surprised especially in Kent coastal towns if there won't be snow but whether it is likely to settle well enough to justify a yellow warning, that is probably questionable.

I'm happy with the 5-10cms range for most of us here, maybe a little more IF the front is slower than expected in moving west, and a lot less (1-3cms) IF the front is a little quicker, with maybe the warning zone reducing in size to take out western parts. DFor now I think the METO warning is bang on the money however.

its early days still time for more warning  to come

 

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