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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


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Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich

    As someone who lives in Norwich, I would like to see the low head further north as we did not get any of the snow that Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire etc got earlier in the week. 

    We don't need to see those Southern counties hogging all the snow again.

    Edited by Nqp15hhu
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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

    Very rare frontal snow potentially this coming week , think last time I saw snow from a frontal event was Jan 13 and nov 30/dec 1st 2010 if I am correct for London ?  

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    If I get some time later I’ll try and take a bit more of an in depth look after the 12z’s but this is starting to come into range of the highest resolution modelling now - EURO4 is a tiny but further North with the developing low than the ECM, so good news there but we will see how that plays out in the next 24 hours

    The good news is for the SE contingent that, assuming NWP has a proper grip on the overall dynamics of the system (even if not the track yet), the low is forecast to deepen as it runs East - this will mean that the further East it heads, the more we should see some Northerly curvature to the track. You can also see from the FAX this morning that as this happens, the fronts tend to wrap around the low somewhat. At the moment this means that Eastern-most parts of this area keep hold of the precipitation for a good while longer.

    Even if it were to dive south, the cold front moving across much of England and Wales should give everyone the chance to see at least something falling...and what happens when this frontal system starts to interact with the low when it hits our region?

    Lots to resolve yet, let’s hope the 12z runs take more of an ECM/Likely Euro4 track

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    all i say if this  comes  off we    in the south east will not be  going  far!!

    gfs-2-66.png

    gfs-2-72.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich

    Just looking at the EURO 4 and see that Northern East Anglia appears to have a constant feed of showers from about 6pm to 12pm tomorrow. Risk of snow cover tonight?

    Edited by Nqp15hhu
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    If you want to keep it simple. North of LP - snow. South of LP - rain. I'm quite literally with that as well.

    Any higher temperatures at 850hpa would be balanced out by more severe snowfall close to the core. There would be a sharp cutoff point from snow to rain though.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

    Staying cold, with potential for disruptive snow in central and southern areas Tuesday into Wednesday, then perhaps more widespread rain and snow on Thursday. Some severe overnight frosts too.

    Updated: 00:34 on Sun 27 Jan 2019 GMT

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Surrey

    Met office video this morning suggesting they may issue some warnings today... Im not sure if they will be early warnings fir Tuesday subject to change?

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    Posted
  • Location: Canterbury, Kent
  • Location: Canterbury, Kent
    4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    Met office video this morning suggesting they may issue some warnings today... Im not sure if they will be early warnings fir Tuesday subject to change?

    What areas will be in it? All the south? Wonder if it will change to orange tomorrow 

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Surrey
    1 minute ago, Ben Capee McInnes said:

    What areas will be in it? All the south? Wonder if it will change to orange tomorrow 

    no idea just says "further warnings maybe issued today"

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    Just  been looking at the radar what about Scotland and what coming down the north sea could get interesting later

    Edited by tinybill
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    Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL

    Morning

    Nothing resolved overnight I see...such an interesting time model watching it nothing else.

    Temperature dropped sharply since midnight - currently 2.1c with a DP of 1.1c

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    The 06z basically suggests that if it comes earlier there won't be much snow. As long as it arrives from the evening onwards then we should be fine.

    The further east in the region you ho, the more leeway there is in this situation for sure due to timings.

    Thursday's low is also looking more interesting on the latest ICON down here 

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    Going to stick in here now for the Tuesday event. 

    Mad thread will become very imby related. We are in the pound seats for this one hopefully!

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    1 minute ago, kold weather said:

    The 06z basically suggests that if it comes earlier there won't be much snow. As long as it arrives from the evening onwards then we should be fine.

    The further east in the region you ho, the more leeway there is in this situation for sure due to timings.

    Thursday's low is also looking more interesting on the latest ICON down here 

    Just a diurnal temp issue then or anything else helping further east?

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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    The only concern i have is the snow might thaw very quickly, wet messy snow ?

    Edited by Kent Blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL

    Sorry, should’ve added (but hadn’t looked out the window yet!) it is snowing right now! Not a lot and definitely not laying but it is snow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Going to stick in here now for the Tuesday event. 

    Mad thread will become very imby related. We are in the pound seats for this one hopefully!

    Yep, haven’t posted in there for like a day now because it’s pretty toxic! The north gets pounded every winter, would be nice if we benefit for once!

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Just a diurnal temp issue then or anything else helping further east?

    Being east means a smaller draw across the channel which should in theory mean less modifications, especially for Kent which will help as well, but I'd say time if day us the bigger factor. At least on the ICON...though the ICON was perhaps a little conservative with snow potential.

    Also 06z icon has total snow event for this region on Thursday away from the coasts (say 15-20 miles inland).

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Dover Kent 10m asl/ Leeds W Yorks 120m asl
  • Location: Dover Kent 10m asl/ Leeds W Yorks 120m asl
    9 minutes ago, Ben Capee McInnes said:

    What areas will be in it? All the south? Wonder if it will change to orange tomorrow 

    Having seen the BBC news forecast this morning, they are watching snow showers running down Eastern counties. I assumed the reference to warnings may be for that at this stage. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Being east means a smaller draw across the channel which should in theory mean less modifications, especially for Kent which will help as well, but I'd say time if day us the bigger factor. At least on the ICON...though the ICON was perhaps a little conservative with snow potential.

    Also 06z icon has total snow event for this region on Thursday away from the coasts (say 15-20 miles inland).

    Just checked - I'm 36 miles due north of Brighton.....Hopefully far enough inland and east enough. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
    9 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

    You can just about make it out..

    C59F4102-2BEB-4E34-B0A7-1390DAB4D9DC.MOV

    Your links seem to always be downloads? Do you have the direct link so we can view in the browser?

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