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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


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Best of luck to the SE gang tonight ?

Evening All, I hope other Members have no objection but just wanted to post up a Wintry Slideshow, for our Kentish Members. But I hope all Members will enjoy these very Wintry photos, from around

Best of luck yo you guys and girls in the South. Don't give up hope if it starts as rain. It rained here for about 2 hours now it's heavy snow. You should be good for a few cms also as it's very heavy

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Sharpedge said:

    Thanks Tom, so it looks like the Tuesday Wednesday event sounds a bit knife edge for London.

    Yes, but these events always are - high risk = big rewards.

    For Greater London, I would like to see another 50 miles north on this low. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea

    We want the low to track CAREFULLY north to keep a lot of people in the picture. Not too far north however. Very complex. Things currently looking good though 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

    Rain here atm, with little wind.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
    26 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Yes, but these events always are - high risk = big rewards.

    For Greater London, I would like to see another 50 miles north on this low. 

    Hi RD,

    Totally agree with your comment. In terms of Weather Models, we're dealing with really fine detail now.  A 50 mile difference to the track of a feature on a Weather Model is the equivalent of popping next door and borrowing a pint of milk, from your neighbour!!Hence my comment earlier, regarding radar watching all the way down to t0!!

    Regards,

    Tom. :hi:

    Edited by TomSE12
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    Posted
  • Location: Canterbury, Kent
  • Location: Canterbury, Kent

    What’s it looking like for east Kent? Canterbury here. Looks interesting but a cliffhanger! Who knows what will happen. Only 2 days away now 

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    8 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

    Hi RD,

    Totally agree with your comment. In terms of Weather Models, we're dealing with really fine detail now. Hence my comment earlier, regarding radar watching all the way down to t0!!

    Regards,

    Tom. 

    Yes, we will get shifts in the track up until a few hours before. Wonder when the met will put the first warnings up.

    These channel lows can be potent little systems though - high energy and a lot of ppn on the front. 

    Edited by Radiating Dendrite
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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    6 minutes ago, Ben Capee McInnes said:

    What’s it looking like for east Kent? Canterbury here. Looks interesting but a cliffhanger! Who knows what will happen. Only 2 days away now 

    I THINK there's some runs that give Essex and Kent in excess of 15cms, although I think snow depth analysis right now will be highly inaccurate. Could be less, equally could be more. Need the low to keep north enough so that it doesn't just effect france. Currently all looking good. PARA run will be pivotal again I think, should be around 10:30

    Edited by Jackski4
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Hmmmm interesting FAX for Tues/Wed

    Lets compare it to the models of this morning..

    86961547.thumb.gif.3f8b7e9525e605de2c71d85c8bca554f.gif86961517.thumb.gif.1146d54814172507dc3a2fd7b47bea6d.gif86961509.thumb.gif.40695fce279b20e04984732e94006fa6.gif  

    Wondering if that Front on Wednesday will Wrap around giving more snow?

    Certainly no lack of PPN on these charts with a cold front chasing the Occluded front out ..

    Ive taken each model I can from Midday Tuesday the rest please see time stamp

     

    GFS                                                                     ICON                                                         ARPEGE                                                            

    overview_20190127_00_060.thumb.jpg.419845d4b31fae0c706bcd89e7a5f6f0.jpg          icon.thumb.jpg.3fa356a1c2b5e6392a7cca817e86889c.jpg         ARPEGE.thumb.jpg.66f8924f12dc0cc777774f945f6b195d.jpg

     

    UKMO                                                                  ECM                                                              GFS Para

    797833925_LOWUKMO.thumb.gif.8cae47783487bcc48e8fb55f942bcc42.gif           ECM.thumb.gif.c4b7f68d4e88bf5cb071d70d1896b015.gif          1973046700_GFSpara.thumb.png.f6023814df99eaeabeb9472d27f883ea.png

     

    JMA

    JMA.thumb.gif.ae53737e7de9053340fe8d044ed6dfe1.gif

     

    Current MIDDLE ground trend would be something like this GREEN LINE

    Top end of the Northern extent would be RED LINE

    Bottom end of Southern extent would be BLUE LINE

    map.thumb.jpg.d21ac82c371f7967fd4188332342c2ad.jpg

    Are we any wiser?

     

    Absolutely not..

     

     

    Edited by Surrey
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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    1 minute ago, Surrey said:

    Hmmmm interesting FAX for Tues/Wed

    Lets compare it to the models of this morning..

    86961547.thumb.gif.3f8b7e9525e605de2c71d85c8bca554f.gif86961517.thumb.gif.1146d54814172507dc3a2fd7b47bea6d.gif86961509.thumb.gif.40695fce279b20e04984732e94006fa6.gif  

    Wondering if that Front on Wednesday will Wrap around giving more snow?

    Certainly no lack of PPN on these charts with a cold front chasing the Occluded front out ..

    Ive taken each model I can from Midday Tuesday the rest please see time stamp

     

    GFS                                                                     ICON                                                         ARPEGE                                                            

    overview_20190127_00_060.thumb.jpg.419845d4b31fae0c706bcd89e7a5f6f0.jpg          icon.thumb.jpg.3fa356a1c2b5e6392a7cca817e86889c.jpg         ARPEGE.thumb.jpg.66f8924f12dc0cc777774f945f6b195d.jpg

     

    UKMO                                                                  ECM                                                              GFS Para

    797833925_LOWUKMO.thumb.gif.8cae47783487bcc48e8fb55f942bcc42.gif           ECM.thumb.gif.c4b7f68d4e88bf5cb071d70d1896b015.gif          1973046700_GFSpara.thumb.png.f6023814df99eaeabeb9472d27f883ea.png

     

    JMA

    JMA.thumb.gif.ae53737e7de9053340fe8d044ed6dfe1.gif

     

    Current MIDDLE ground trend would be something like this GREEN LINE

    Top end of the Northern extent would be RED LINE

    Bottom end of Southern extent would be BLUE LINE

     

    Are we any wiser?

     

    Absolutely not..

     

     

    map.thumb.jpg.d21ac82c371f7967fd4188332342c2ad.jpg

    None the wiser. Cool lines though, 9-10?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

    Wind is suddenly picking up...

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.

    Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

    Becoming wet during Tuesday, with the potential for disruptive snow overnight into Wednesday. Further rain, perhaps preceded by snow, on Thursday. Overnight frost and ice is likely.

     

    thats from the met for the south west, DISRUPTIVE SNOW, wow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

    None the wiser. Cool lines though, 9-10?

    Well ECM mean now goes with almost red line option as Steve posted in Model thread..

    Today 2 things are going to happen... 

    Trend North or Trend south... Probs more on the 12z 18z and 00z later

    Monday will then firm up any minor things for instances PPN intensity.. Flows.. etc

    Tuesday day time will be real time data watching.. 

     

    I will post all the links up on Monday night

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Bazray said:

    Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

    Becoming wet during Tuesday, with the potential for disruptive snow overnight into Wednesday. Further rain, perhaps preceded by snow, on Thursday. Overnight frost and ice is likely.

     

    thats from the met for the south west, DISRUPTIVE SNOW, wow.

    This is the SE though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

     

    Just now, Bazray said:

    Yea sorry, just thought it’s interesting to all.

    Ours will do nicely...

     

    Monday:

    Cold and sunny, with early brisk winds in eastern areas progressively easing. Remaining clear with a widespread hard frost developing overnight. Maximum temperature 6 °C.

    Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

    Remaining cold throughout, with hard overnight frosts. There is relatively high uncertainty for the period, however some significant snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, and perhaps again late Thursday

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    Well ECM mean now goes with almost red line option as Steve posted in Model thread..

    Today 2 things are going to happen... 

    Trend North or Trend south... Probs more on the 12z 18z and 00z later

    Monday will then firm up any minor things for instances PPN intensity.. Flows.. etc

    Tuesday day time will be real time data watching.. 

     

    I will post all the links up on Monday night

    Red line is good for us, correct ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
    5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

     

    Ours will do nicely...

     

    Monday:

    Cold and sunny, with early brisk winds in eastern areas progressively easing. Remaining clear with a widespread hard frost developing overnight. Maximum temperature 6 °C.

    Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

    Remaining cold throughout, with hard overnight frosts. There is relatively high uncertainty for the period, however some significant snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, and perhaps again late Thursday

    Indeed just looked at Brighton...

     

    Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

    Remaining cold throughout, with hard overnight frosts. There is relatively high uncertainty for the period, however some significant snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, and perhaps again late Thursday.

     

    SIGNIFICANT ? not as good as DISRUPTIVE but still good.

    good news ?

    Edited by Bazray
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    Just now, Jackski4 said:

    Red line is good for us, correct ?

    mmmmm Good for people about 25 miles inland..

    Anymore than that and its going to be squeaky bum time with warmer air coming into the mix 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    1 minute ago, Surrey said:

    mmmmm Good for people about 25 miles inland..

    Anymore than that and its going to be squeaky bum time with warmer air coming into the mix 

     

    SO we need it a tad further south?

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

    SO we need it a tad further south?

     Splitting hairs really, I'm happy to take the risk. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

    SO we need it a tad further south?

    To keep ALL of us happy if it hugged the North French coast maybe a touch North we are all laughing I think..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    As others have said this won’t be resolved until tomorrow night at the earliest and even then it is subject to change.my current thoughts looking at latest UKMO fax is that in an ideal world we would need about a 30-40 move northwards which would just about keep us within the margins of more snow within the right temperature range purely for the SE thread.The natural pessimist in me thinks like yesterday these systems have a habit of dropping further southwards when we get within 48 hour range so although temperatures are colder a lot of the thread would end up with the snow drought conyinuing?

    Fascinating watching this develop and hope we are all lamppost watching from late Tuesday night onwards seeing heavy snow falling!!

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