SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Jackski4]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Very snowy period coming up IF we can maintain the current trend. Within the semi reliable now so changes expected but not HUGE ones (hopefully)

The closer is gets, the more confident I become... I don't think there's going to be any major changes for Tuesday and I hope there is some slight changes for Thursday in our favour... IF things go right we could be looking at two snow storms in the space of 3 days...:)

 

Edit: And who knows what the weekend might hold...

Edited January 26, 2019 by Jackski4

[snowblind]

Quite an encouraging met office outlook to the 9th of Feb. There is a lot of mention of rain, sleet or snow. So let's hope it's the latter. 

The outlook beyond that hasn't changed but I still sceptical but we shall see.

[slater]

4 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Quite an encouraging met office outlook to the 9th of Feb. There is a lot of mention of rain, sleet or snow. So let's hope it's the latter. 

The outlook beyond that hasn't changed but I still sceptical but we shall see.

The met office has had the same 30 day outlook since mid December, covering all eventually 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

21 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

The closer is gets, the more confident I become... I don't think there's going to be any major changes for Tuesday and I hope there is some slight changes for Thursday in our favour... IF things go right we could be looking at two snow storms in the space of 3 days...:)

 

Edit: And who knows what the weekend might hold...

Not to mention a chance of back edge snow tomorrow morning... 

But yes we are standing in a good place currently fingers fingers crossed it goes our way this time.. 

Going to say a little pray later lol

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Not to mention a chance of back edge snow tomorrow morning... 

But yes we are standing in a good place currently fingers fingers crossed it goes our way this time.. 

Going to say a little pray later lol

Haven't even seen tomorrow morning, been too focused on Tuesday. What's it looking like?

[SMU]

Hey back in the regionals from tomorrow

All eyes on Tues PM !!!!

[Londres]

21 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Not to mention a chance of back edge snow tomorrow morning... 

But yes we are standing in a good place currently fingers fingers crossed it goes our way this time.. 

Going to say a little pray later lol

Like this past Tuesday?

[Hammer]

Tuesday evening looks promising. What are the current modeled sweet spots if GFSP accurate? which we know will vary before T0.

[Jackski4]

21 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Tuesday evening looks promising. What are the current modeled sweet spots if GFSP accurate? which we know will vary before T0.

I think 10-15 cm widely is expected I think the sweet spot was around where I am, Essex, where GFSPARA has us down for 25cm's maybe. Last time I looked anyway 

[Hammer]

Snow arriving in evening on Tuesday if it happens must be a little helpful?

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Hammer said:

Snow arriving in evening on Tuesday if it happens must be a little helpful?

Don't think it makes much difference. Will probably settle faster as ground temperatures will be lower. Latest GFSPara snow chart shows 8-15 cm quite widely, sweet spot being around Kent with 15+.

[Kentspur]

2 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

 

Some screenshots of tomorrow morning trough. Looks like best forecast for snow risk are from gfs and gfsp

 

 

 

This should help us decipher which models to look at and trust next week. Normally I'd not put much faith in the GFS precip charts but I thought they did pretty well with last Tuesdays event! Here's hoping!

Edited January 26, 2019 by Kentspur

[Snow Queen one]

Just run the NWEX-MR precipitation type animation and it does not look good for Kent for snow over the next week.  I know I should  not look as these forecasts are not reliable but couldn't resist.

[Chris101]

13 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

This should help us decipher which models to look at and trust next week. Normally I'd not put much faith in the GFS precip charts but I thought they did pretty well with last Tuesdays event! Here's hoping!

Be good to watch temps and DPs come South tonight, how quick can they push into the front.

[lassie23]

been picking onions and carrots from my garden, the fact that the carrots were covered in slugs goes to show what a hiss poor winter it has been for cold and snow

[alexisj9]

13 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Be good to watch temps and DPs come South tonight, how quick can they push into the front.

Yep I'll be watching that, models didn't get the speed of cold right last time, let's see what happens. Gales may help push things in quicker, or might mix the cold out a bit. I hope the first choice.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Crikey!! Trying to follow and make sense of that 12z ICON run, is impossible, on the Model thread!! One post says great for the S.E., followed by it's all going into France, bye, bye!! Confused.com, or what??

FWIW, I'm with Kold Weather on this!! We do not want this Low deepening too much, it will become very marginal for all of us!!

I stated the other day, this evolving situation reminds me of Dec. 8th 1981.Also, I would call Tuesday's feature, a reverse "Channel Low". One that's trying to introduce colder air and not trying to dislodge it, to something milder. See chart below:

A shallow feature tracked S.E. across Ireland, my favourite rain to snow event. of all!!

Similar 850 temp profile, to what's forecast, on Tuesday.

Some fascinating 12z runs, coming up!!

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

 

[Hammer]

UKMO T72 to T96 runs that low up the channel. 990mb. From earlier comments this is good for some in this region yes?

[Tom Quintavalle]

12 minutes ago, Hammer said:

UKMO T72 to T96 runs that low up the channel. 990mb. From earlier comments this is good for some in this region yes?

Hi Hammer,

The 12z UKMO doesn't look too bad to me, it doesn't deepen that low too much and keeps it fairly shallow. Which means the cold air, shouldn't be mixed out. The 850temps don't look too bad, either. If that run comes to fruition, would expect quite a few of us, would see some snow.

Regards,

Tom. 

[chionomaniac]

I’m still not looking too much further than tomorrow morning. Gfs still suggesting back edge snow - could there be a little surprise passing under the radar of the main thread?

[Jackski4]

Icon and UKMO give this region plenty of snow Tuesday. UKMO then goes with the best charts we've had all winter. Things look very good

[Dbarb]

11 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I’m still not looking too much further than tomorrow morning. Gfs still suggesting back edge snow - could there be a little surprise passing under the radar of the main thread?

Just don't spoil it okay

[Tom Quintavalle]

3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Icon and UKMO give this region plenty of snow Tuesday. UKMO then goes with the best charts we've had all winter. Things look very good

I would suggest, given the track and depth of Tuesday's feature on the 12z UKMO, that's virtually "slide rule" perfect for us here in the S.E. Really hoping UKMO are calling this correctly!!

Regards,

Tom.  

[Dami]

hero worship is insane.

Anyway. Playing it as always day by day.

[Mizzle]

1 hour ago, Chris101 said:

Be good to watch temps and DPs come South tonight, how quick can they push into the front.

Are there any sites/apps that show live temps? And possible pressure/ front movements. Satellite and radar is ok for precip but not specific for the dp and temps nationwide.