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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


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18 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Yeah I see that. The south facing mountains in Canmore have very little snow on them this year. I’m heading up into the mountains to get the guaranteed snow. I always loved the chinooks during a cold winter. One year I saw the temp on my deck go from -15 to plus 10 in a few hours. 

Are you in Calgary now rather than Edmonton? 

i'm in Edmonton but my company has offices in Calgary and Red Deer.

Spent a week in Kanasksis in June though

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Best of luck to the SE gang tonight ?

Evening All, I hope other Members have no objection but just wanted to post up a Wintry Slideshow, for our Kentish Members. But I hope all Members will enjoy these very Wintry photos, from around

Best of luck yo you guys and girls in the South. Don't give up hope if it starts as rain. It rained here for about 2 hours now it's heavy snow. You should be good for a few cms also as it's very heavy

Posted Images

13 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Whilst we are awaiting some snow and I have you  boys on here, some advice please

We are having our first Netweather Canadian Chasing this year in July and landing in Calgary on the 14th July

Can I ask you guys what Hotel would you suggest for us to use as a base, closeish to the Airport. Hopefully you know some nice eateries as well or suggest some close to Calgary as well for our initiation meeting etc

Thanks in Advance

Paul

Hi Paul

Ive usually stayed at the Hilton downtown - which is about 20-25 mins from the airport. This comes in a little on high end. But best western downtown is good I hear at more reasonable prices.

The Nash is a good place to eat on 11th Street. But honestly any pub or restaurant will be good compared to here IMO 

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Just now, CanadianCoops said:

Hi Paul

Ive usually stayed at the Hilton downtown - which is about 20-25 mins from the airport. This comes in a little on high end. But best western downtown is good I hear at more reasonable prices.

The Nash is a good place to eat on 11th Street. But honestly any pub or restaurant will be good compared to here IMO 

Thats Brilliant

Have looked at the Bessie Wessie as one of the possibles so good you mentioned that, and will defo check out Nash as well

Thanks for the Swift Reply

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7 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i'm in Edmonton but my company has offices in Calgary and Red Deer.

Spent a week in Kanasksis in June though

I do like Kananaksis. I always used to fish at the upper kananaskis lake. Here’s a pic I took of my mate when he came to visit 

77F1AA3C-269A-4995-A9E9-4027D9FC9C3C.jpeg

Edited by CanadianCoops
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2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Thats Brilliant

Have looked at the Bessie Wessie as one of the possibles so good you mentioned that, and will defo check out Nash as well

Thanks for the Swift Reply

Hope you get lucky (storm wise lol) It’s a good spot. I was in a tornado warning once driving north of Calgary. The prairies get some good storms and tornadoes 

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3 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Hope you get lucky (storm wise lol) It’s a good spot. I was in a tornado warning once driving north of Calgary. The prairies get some good storms and tornadoes 

Yh we ventured into Canada once last year in June and scored a Tornado near Estevan and then crossed back into the USA near Portal. They get some stunners in July with Canola Fields as the back drop

Cant Wait!

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49 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

I’m back to Canada next month. Hot tub and snow all the way  ❄️ but still it’s nothing like snow in your own back yard. Hopefully you’ll get to see snow in the hot tub this winter ?

I’m also heading off to Canada at half term. Jasper for a week and can’t wait! Not heaps of snow there this season but so cold that it’s not an issue 

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Well the 18z ensembles have certainly thrown down the gauntlet. This feels like it could be one of those situations where someone in this country may get hammered hard twice in 24hrs. If things stay where they are, somewhere would probably cop 12-15 inches by the end of the week..

BUT these charts will change, whether for the better or worse. Down here we need less for Tuesday's action to evolve, but we need something probably approaching 90% perfection for Wednesday to become a total snow day, snow-rain still the heavy favourite, despite better charts this evening. Any snow cover we can get on Tuesday will work in our favour by helping to modify the very lowest level of the atmosphere colder and may help us retain snow longer than the 850hpa profile would suggest at first.

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Looks like some kind of trough in the NW flow after the cold has arrived tomorrow. I haven’t looked at other short range models but similar to Tuesday from earlier this week.

 E272383D-ED56-49EE-A343-CFD94E1FFDED.thumb.png.6987a7614b4779de57513ec1701ea6b3.png

Worth keeping an eye before next week even arrives

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Up early to have breakfast with Wife, before she started her 12 hour shift.

First had a look at a recording of MeteoGroup's, Weather For The Week Ahead (with Nick Miller).

I'm just going to concentrate on our snow chances, in the next week. After this mild blip, turning colder tomorrow. Some showery ppn may make it's way down the East coast, which may be wintry.

He gave a sigh, when he came to Tuesday's forecast. He stated there was a lot of uncertainty regarding the track of this small feature, running towards us from the West. He did emphasis that if it took a more Northerly track across S.England, that it could cause some disruptive snowfall. It was certainly something to "keep an eye on".

He finished the forecast by stating that a large low will likely be positioned just to the N.W. of the U.K, by the end of the week. Should that occur, the weather will become milder.

Having looked at the overnight  runs regarding Tuesday's potential, prefer UKMO and the GFS  (PARA):

     00z UKMO WEDS 30th JAN (T96)

image.thumb.png.5b40b82049618dca59a6afc883951d7c.png

00z GFS (PARA) WEDS 30th JAN (t96)

image.thumb.png.f6e8644f8fcce25a50ff9fd53471965d.png

A couple of the other Models, make less of the feature and have it running further South, through France.

The 00z ECM, hardly makes anything of the feature at all, just showing as a "kink", in the isobars. See Chart below:

      00z ECM WEDS 30th JAN (t96)

image.thumb.png.cc96ee8496d38ee745998746a6b53b21.png

It will be very interesting to see how this situation resolves, itself. My mind harks back to the conversation I had with local Meteorologist Ian Currie, a few days ago. In Ian's opinion, the UKMO Model is the best "short range" Model, around. But the 850 temps on the UKMO Model, look the most marginal for snow, especially in the South of our region. We don't want to see this feature develop too much, otherwise we could the cold air mixed out.

Not long to wait now, to discover our fate!! :whistling:

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

 

 

Edited by TomSE12
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Must resist the rollercoaster, must resist the rollercoaster, must resist the rollercoaster.....ah sod it weeeeeeeeeeeee it’s gonna snow ❄️ 

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Know the details aren't nailed on yet but I am travelling from Croydon to Norfolk on Friday and then from Norfolk to Stanstead for a flight on Saturday morning. Getting very worried seeing that we may have disruptive snow.How soon can we be pretty much sure what the weather will be like at that stage?. Looking at the MOD thread I am starting to think we should re-look at arrangements, be prepared that we are not going to get there. Any thoughts? thanks

Edited by Isabellesnanny
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just spent the last hour reviewing numerous topics on the forum to get a better understanding of what next week's weather will be like. 

conclusion:

nobody bloody knows! although all the hot air being spouted  is likely to reduce any chances of snow we have! ?

Edited by username home
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12 hours ago, smichling said:

I’m also heading off to Canada at half term. Jasper for a week and can’t wait! Not heaps of snow there this season but so cold that it’s not an issue 

Had a most enjoyable trip to Canada. Flew Calgary, stayed at Banff, then Jasper and drove over to Whistler then onto Vancouver Island and flew back from Vancouver. 

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7 minutes ago, username home said:

just spent the last hour reviewing numerous topics on the forum to get a better understanding of what next week's weather will be like. 

conclusion:

nobody bloody knows! although all the hot air being spouted  is likely to reduce any chances of snow we have! ?

I think best wait until SM comes here and gives us a briefing, he did say he would be here this weekend.

Ive noticed that if there is uncertainty he tends to hold back, which is much better than getting people’s hopes up.

Edited by Sharpedge
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6 minutes ago, username home said:

just spent the last hour reviewing numerous topics on the forum to get a better understanding of what next week's weather will be like. 

conclusion:

nobody bloody knows! although all the hot air being spouted  is likely to reduce any chances of snow we have! ?

You really ought to know better, you know...model-watching and rationality go together like water and gasoline!?

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10 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Had a most enjoyable trip to Canada. Flew Calgary, stayed at Banff, then Jasper and drove over to Whistler then onto Vancouver Island and flew back from Vancouver. 

I did that trip 20 years ago but in the summer!!??Loved Banff and jasper and plan to go back with the missus in a couple years.

The snow event which may or may not happen Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will go down to the wire and a 50 mile difference north or south will have huge implications for us in the SE.Historically when these Channel Lows happen I would say there is a 60/40 chance it will be further south than currently being modelled but that is purely from seeing past events occur.Would love current UKMO CHART being on the money as that I think would suit all of SE THREAD in terms of snow.My god I think we deserve something to go our way in what up to this point has been a winter that has shown so much potential but so far delivered nowt!!I have everything crossed for this thread and fab members.

Edited by Hotspur62
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woke up hopeful things have been upgraded but alas, no. Hubs brought ice cream, chocolate sauce and oreo's to make sundaes. I like this very much. 

So no snow day for us :(

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Honestly not sure yet as it is somewhat dependent on what happens with the channel low situation. If the channel low does form. that would argue the 2nd low will be further south as well, maybe even too far south IF it become strong enough.

For now though, I'd still expect something close to the GFs/ECM OP runs, but maybe a little weaker and a touch further south-east but I've no idea yet, a lot of options.

Everything from nothing but rain, through to 1ft.

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