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Blessed Weather

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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4 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Would be very nice 👍🏻 I’m still excited about the snowfall here on Tuesday afternoon/evening, it’s been many years since I’ve seen snowflakes that huge and it settled on all surfaces. Have seen a couple of very heavy snow showers in Prague since moving there, too. Lovely.

Yes, we're going to look like rank amateurs in the snow department here in the snowless south east after you have spent a while in Prague. I do hope that goes well for you:)

Lucky you seeing the big flakes ❄️ I missed the actual snowfall early evening on Tuesday as I was teaching 4.30-6.30, but it was a lovely surprise coming out of my lecture and first thinking 'no it can't be' and then thinking 'wow, it really is' as realisation dawned the snow had indeed fallen and given campus a good covering. The models for quite some time had been regularly converging on that date as the most likely for snow but as the charts 'downgraded' nearer the time, I downgraded my expectations, and I was wrong:) ⛄ It took me nearly ten minutes to clear at least a centimeter if not two of snow off the car with my trusty Clas Ohlson ice scraper and snow brush - purchased in 2013 in the belief all winters would be like that(!) - before slithering through a completely non-prepared campus to get home. By the time I returned to Surbiton at 9.30 everything had all but cleared. Fingers crossed for more to come.

 

Brunel snowy car park black and white.jpg

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And another dover hill with snow still on it even after a bit of rain today.

IMG_20190124_152214.jpg

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23 minutes ago, snowblind said:

According to the latest text update on the eastern region forecast on the Met office site, not that cold on Sunday at 6C with intermittent rain. Monday colder with a raw wind. Gone is the mention of wintry showers.

Yes indeed. Timing of rain totally changes and the mention of snow on Monday has gone. 

Really really poor forecasting. Couldn't predict a pint in a pub. 

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This forcasts on the been now really are a complete load of toss! At 955pm last night Saturday was going to be a washout and on Sunday they had 50mph winds over us.

Roll forward to 16:25 today and Saturday is now totally dry and Sunday is wet but the winds are 14mph 😂😂

Its utterly shambolic

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46 minutes ago, Matty J said:

This forcasts on the been now really are a complete load of toss! At 955pm last night Saturday was going to be a washout and on Sunday they had 50mph winds over us.

Roll forward to 16:25 today and Saturday is now totally dry and Sunday is wet but the winds are 14mph 😂😂

Its utterly shambolic

Not just the beeb. The Met Office just as hopeless, though in fairness to them on their you tube updates they more or less admit that. Think they are still eating humble pie after this week's shambles. 

May head to the seaside on Sunday. One never knows?! 🙂

Bit milder this evening 3.8c.

 

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I for one am fed up with keeping the fire going so we are warm. The sooner that nice warm quiet weather occurs the happier I would be. Can then get on with growing stuff for the coming season.

Having said that I like nice snowy weather as long as it is that and not a slushy mess. 

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7 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Not just the beeb. The Met Office just as hopeless, though in fairness to them on their you tube updates they more or less admit that. Think they are still eating humble pie after this week's shambles. 

May head to the seaside on Sunday. One never knows?! 🙂

Bit milder this evening 3.8c.

 

That's why I'm rather sceptical of their longer range forecast that keeps mentioning the possibility of very cold weather with east or North easterly winds. They have been saying the same since December. There is still time I guess but whatever their longer range models are seeing it seems to be being overridden by something they are not.

Similar thing happened a few winters back and the colder outlook was quietly dropped in the end.

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freeze back on in the mod thread😂

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47 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

It's off again

Which is it? I don't want to risk going in there!

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lets see what happens tomorrow to the least reliable forecasts many of us have ever seen 

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Just now, snowblind said:

Which is it? I don't want to risk going in there!

its off ... just because a chart has a shade of blue on it people are guaranteeing snow in 4 days time - fun to read nonetheless.

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I'm still feeling confident that will see a shift to much colder weather, in the last day or so of January and more so, during early February. Especially after my conversation with Ian Currie, yesterday. 

As Ian suggested, we may need a "few bites of the Northerly, cherry."

Although I admit, I'm starting to lose count of the attempted Northerly attacks!!

Just as one low dives S.E, with a ridge trying to build behind it, yet another low comes barrelling out of E.Canada, to flatten the ridge, again!!

This current grouping of Forecast Northerly plunges may take until early February, to finally be successful. Or to use a Baseball analogy. " 3 strikes Atlantic and you're out!!"

As Mr.Currie suggested we will almost certainly need the Jet Stream to be anesthetized, somewhat. Hopefully this will happen, as we enter February. 12z  GFS and ECM are starting to "sniff out" some height rises to our N.E., as we enter that timeframe. 

I have to add, that I think Mr.Currie has been very consistent with his thoughts for visualising the way forward and the anticipated, long route to cold.

Below are the GFS and ECM Models suggestions, out in F.I., land:

       12z GFS (PARA) SUN.3rd FEB.

image.thumb.png.06830bae740c37bcf0b28ee08a0c1191.png

            12z ECM SUN.3rd FEB.

image.thumb.png.a8f2e4649b5458f99b0a3b5efa8769e1.png

And IMO this type of evolving Synoptic scenario, ties in nicely with today's Met Office updated outlooks.

I refuse to be sucked in by the OTT despondency, on the Model thread.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Edited by TomSE12

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Just checked the GFS, surprised there's not more talk about Tuesday and Wednesday evening next week, looks like there's plenty of potential for our part of the world. Wednesday looks like we could see a fair bit if things don't change too much (which it will)

Edited by Uxbridge90

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16 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Just checked the GFS, surprised there's not more talk about Tuesday and Wednesday evening next week, looks like there's plenty of potential for our part of the world. Wednesday looks like we could see a fair bit if things don't change too much (which it will)

This is what confuses me about the MOD thread. Everyone is always chasing day 10 charts showing Narnia and often ignore what is potentially coming up!

So in terms of us in the SE/EA are we still looking good for some snow next week?

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Agree with TOMSE12 on prospects for next 5-6 days.Just viewed MOD thread and like Tom said too much despondency-there are some people over there that need to take a break from that thread just so they can clear their heads and got some perspective.We are all frustrated I get that but it is the weather and in my book we have about 50 days of winter left(I always have March 15th in my head as the end game of winter).We just need a small break from the weather gods over the other side of the Atlantic and the chances of a cold spell will increase for us.Time to be half full and not half empty and that is coming from a spurs fan who has just seen his team lose on pens to Chelsea.!!

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Couple of milder days ahead then back to cold. Not bad. 

My first winter model watching and its a rather hectic one. Hopefully not every winter is like this. Quite opposite to earlier last year with the summer being predicted quite comfortably by the models with those 6-8 weeks of prolonged hot weather. Learning a lot through this forum.It's nice 🙂 

Edited by Zesyph

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22 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

Agree with TOMSE12 on prospects for next 5-6 days.Just viewed MOD thread and like Tom said too much despondency-there are some people over there that need to take a break from that thread just so they can clear their heads and got some perspective.We are all frustrated I get that but it is the weather and in my book we have about 50 days of winter left(I always have March 15th in my head as the end game of winter).We just need a small break from the weather gods over the other side of the Atlantic and the chances of a cold spell will increase for us.Time to be half full and not half empty and that is coming from a spurs fan who has just seen his team lose on pens to Chelsea.!!

Spurs luck and watching those models tease then collapse at the last minute reminds me of our regions luck at getting a decent snow fall to stick or the holy grail of lifting a trophy=Beast from the East!

Despite having had a very tough cup run away at arsenal and west ham and despite not having Harry Kane Dele Alli and Son we did well to take it to penalties tbh- Chelsea are lucky the rules changed this season away goals now don't count unlike in previous seasons else Spurs would have gone straight to the final and wouldn't have even had to take penalties as Chelsea didn't score at Wembley! 

Edited by Kentspur

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1 hour ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Just checked the GFS, surprised there's not more talk about Tuesday and Wednesday evening next week, looks like there's plenty of potential for our part of the world. Wednesday looks like we could see a fair bit if things don't change too much (which it will)

That's the problem I think. It's still 5 days away and the models have been so volatile lately.

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29 minutes ago, Zesyph said:

Couple of milder days ahead then back to cold. Not bad. 

My first winter model watching and its a rather hectic one. Hopefully not every winter is like this. Quite opposite to earlier last year with the summer being predicted quite comfortably by the models with those 6-8 weeks of prolonged hot weather. Learning a lot through this forum.It's nice 🙂 

I've watched the last 5 winters and it's always pretty hectic to be honest!

Edited by Uxbridge90

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I thought I'd copy this from the model thread since I think its relevant:

"Hmmm if you want a wildcard a few of the ensembles are still producing a LP/wave along the system that comes westwards along the southern half the country. We have already seen that happen to an extent on Tuesday but the low formed a little too late to be of use for us. ECM also does have its signature, as does the ICON. So enough there to IMO warrant a close watch, probably a 30% risk IMO but if a low was to form could get a surprise dumping of snow late Monday and into Tuesday."

Just maybe something to keep an eye on?!

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7Not much talk of snow in the latest met office forecast for our region over the next 5 days, wintry showers is the main theme. Basically ignore all the hype from the model thread. 

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Oh dear oh dear, 

Could winter 2018/2019 go down as the winter full of hope and promise but never delivered.. 

Or

Are we going to see one almighty come back in February... 

I'm going for the second one lol 

But once again.. We are back to day ten chasing unless the 06z can claw back some hope! 

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Yup I can’t see any snow for us in the SE for at least the next week but never say never

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51 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Yup I can’t see any snow for us in the SE for at least the next week but never say never

Looks like it's just going to be one of those winters where things never quite work out for us.

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