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Blessed Weather

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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@TomSE12 Thank you SO much for your amazing posts, charts and images. And lucky you to have experienced such exciting events. I will now be keeping eyes peeled for one of those infamous 'Channel Lows 😁😘

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8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I wouldn't be happy if that's all we got, because I got pretty shafted with rain;...and rain...and rain!

All seriousness though, there is potential (despite my musing in the mod thread!) for our area if we can get a LP to run far enough south.

Sorry you missed out on Tuesday. I do hope you're right about an lp going far enough south.... The Icon, unlike the major models, seems to have been consistent in saying no to an Easterly or North Easterly. So if that model were to suddenly show one  develop in early February, i would start to take notice. I just fear though we are locked into this pattern now.

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@TomSE12 From the GFS 00z ...is this kind of a Channel Low? 🤔 Or not, because it hasn't formed separately (i.e. it's not about where it is but more where it came from?)

gfsnh-0-150.png

Edited by Mizzle
Typo amended and expanded Q

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36 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

@TomSE12 From the GFS 00z ...is this kind of a Channel Low? 🤔 Or not, because it hasn't formed separately (i.e. it's not about where it is but more where it came from?)

gfsnh-0-150.png

Yes that's almost a channel low although it's a little far north. Not to be taken seriously though as its in the realms of fantasy island.. 

The GFS 06z will be completely diffrent gfs also loves to blow low pressure up... 

Anyway cold now mild blip then maybe very cold and yet the milder rampers are trying thier best to get in... Most of them have vanished but 1 or 2 still trying to cling on.. HAHAHA

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-5  outside  out  side  radar saying  showers  incoming  from the west   if the radar right!!

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34 minutes ago, tinybill said:

-5  outside  out  side  radar saying  showers  incoming  from the west   if the radar right!!

Yes just saw that, could deliver a rush hour surprise 😮🙈

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temps rising here and clod increasing

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Looks like most those showers will miss the region and go into the very east of the region.. - 5 here! 

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Yeah same here Surrey. ECM shows them weakening from now on and turning more to sleet as they come into the region, probably due to a rise in temps in early morning.

Still, could see a dusting for northern part of the region.

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Morning all,

Really liking those 00z UKMO charts at t120 and t144. 

       UKMO TUES.29th JAN. (t120)

image.thumb.png.c0aa24326296c90e29bbada129dd838f.png

       UKMO WEDS. 30th JAN, (t144) 

image.thumb.png.1e5e0a4b8226e7845e557e56421d63c6.png

Notice the wave developing on the front, just SW of Iceland. Then that gets dragged, "whiplash" style S.E, across the U.K. The above charts are very reminiscent of how the very cold spell in December 1981, started. See charts below:

                   DEC.7th 1981.

image.thumb.png.c9eee87f7ab9c44dfc9f762f11f248d0.png

Notice a very similar, runner (wave), just SW of Iceland that gets dragged SE across the U.K, in a very similar fashion, to the above UKMO chart, for Wednesday next week. See chart below:

                    DEC.8th 1981

image.thumb.png.39cb77150f36b7882d1c5c55137fabd2.png

The chart above depicts the situation at Noon on 8th December 1981.To this day, it remains the best rain to snow event, I've witnessed. I was living in Camberwell, S.E.London at the time, with my first Wife. Heavy rain turned to heavy snow around breakfast time and despite ground conditions being very wet, the snow settled readily. By the time the snow stopped it had left a couple of inches on the ground, not bad for an Inner London Borough. This event brought rush-hour chaos, throughout our region.

Below are the two photos I posted up the other day from the Surrey County Weather Book, with Ian Currie's kind permission. They depict the scene in Dorking Town Centre, on the morning of 8th December 1981.

image.thumb.png.3f3c6fa91c330b9064c2640fb67615d2.png

image.thumb.png.99fa3e5f57c87212150e0575d37a3ef7.png

I'm really hoping the UKMO have called next weeks Synoptics correctly. Looks as if it could be a pretty similar rain > snow event, come Wednesday, next week with all the fun n' games, that entails!!

The encouraging thing is, Mr.Currie rates the UKMO Model the best around, at that range. Here's hoping!!  :whistling:

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

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Can confirm nothing falling from the sky. Unfortunately looks like it’s evaporating before it hits the ground 😒

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4 minutes ago, shotski said:

Can confirm nothing falling from the sky. Unfortunately looks like it’s evaporating before it hits the ground 😒

Could be, the air is very dry down here you would probs need to be under any green echos on radar to see anything fall.. 

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29 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

temps rising here and clod increasing

Clod sounds about right to sum up this winter so far lol

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Re. my post above, 00z ECM looking very similar to UKMO, for Tues, Weds next week. See charts below:

      00z ECM TUES 29th JAN (t120)

image.thumb.png.7d698382bfb8572a11a101d01d63ba9f.png

      00z ECM WEDS 30th JAN (t144)

image.thumb.png.7ad2b642ebc1d7b7e35e4f42f0e90c56.png

It's certainly been a very good start to the day. Model wise!!

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

 

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Good morning! -1c here, with a widespread frost, as expected. Ice is also around.

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Morning

Clear and cold here this morning, Currently -2.3c with a DP of -2.7c.

Looks like the precipitation is fizzling and drifting south east so might miss here but not too worried seeing next week’s trends! 🤞

Edited by lottiekent

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Thick ice on my velux windows,looks beautiful outside,all white and crisp,best get into car a few mins earlier,and start the defrosting process

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Raining here. 

Could be hazardous if it ice’s over before sunrise 

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Light rain and 0c. wonderful.

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There is a beautiful hard frost covering the roofs, lawns and pavements.  The temperature is -2°C which feels more like -3°C. The dew point is -2°C.

Edited by Katrine Basso
Dew point temperature added

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8 minutes ago, Dami said:

Light rain and 0c. wonderful.

Freezing rain is being reported in your area... 

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It was -3.9c when I left home this morning . One of those lovely crisp frosty mornings. 

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I look in the firing line in North London. A part doesn’t want snow today because I have hockey today! But I pray for it year round so if it does get me I won’t complain!

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Fell to -4.1C here overnight and still -3C at 07.30. I've been looking at the radar and thinking I might see some flakes falling soon. Disappointed to read others already under the area of precipitation are seeing rain. Could be heading for really nasty skating rink conditions with current ground temps.

Radar at 07.20:1053571716_Radar07.20Thur24Jan.thumb.jpg.7b471f5a21faf973b9e63ac287261414.jpg

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