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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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1 minute ago, Southender said:

Temporary dusting in Southend, first of the winter. All turned to slush.

The drive back was really interesting buddy

Billericay a Solid Inch on all surfaces, trees look amazing up there but where I was is 505ft asl

Drove down through Noak Bridge to the A127 and just a 1cm covering, Wickford about the same, you lose the settled snow just past the Rayleigh Weir.

Turned into Leigh on Sea and mostly sleety mess

Temps in Billericay were -2c, It was -1c in Wickford and 0c in Leigh so much more marginal this way

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2 minutes ago, 80sWeather said:

Well not bad for a N’Westerly this was at 19:45 here in Godmanchester.

2DD21FBF-95C9-4380-A683-B799A29F16A1.jpeg

Stokes Drive?

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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

The drive back was really interesting buddy

Billericay a Solid Inch on all surfaces, trees look amazing up there but where I was is 505ft asl

Drove down through Noak Bridge to the A127 and just a 1cm covering, Wickford about the same, you lose the settled snow just past the Rayleigh Weir.

Turned into Leigh on Sea and mostly sleety mess

Temps in Billericay were -2c, It was -1c in Wickford and 0c in Leigh so much more marginal this way

At least you got to see some action mate. I’m sure we will get our turn in the next few weeks when winds are more favourable 😉👍🏻

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deleted

 

 

Edited by snowray

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43 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Patience. It's barely started. Beast from the East didn't strike until March.

And i missed that as i was in the Caribbean! 

Hence my impatience at waiting for a decent snow event. Knowing my luck it will come end of feb/early march when I’m away again 😂😢

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35 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi Lottie,

I wouldn't give up hope just yet. MeteoGroup are still banging your drum, in East Kent. They are suggesting that ppn will pivot over you and as the flow turns in between N and NE, overnight, East Kent will see further Wintry Showers, well into tomorrow. Ben Rich stated giving a covering, especially over high ground. You did, after all, win my Snow Depth Cup due to your location and elevation!! :oldgood:

Here is the HIRLAM Model's view of the situation, at midnight:

image.thumb.png.8a48785a319888d34882a742a82fddbd.png

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

Thanks Tom!

Currently 0.7c here with a DP of 0.3c and it’s SNOWING!! Only light snow and not laying yet but I’m happy all the same....was saying goodnight to my 11 year old at the time. Asked if that meant he could have tomorrow off school as surely the bus can’t get him down the hill. Mentioned I can drive in the snow...don’t think he believed me!

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1 minute ago, Matty J said:

And i missed that as i was in the Caribbean! 

Hence my impatience at waiting for a decent snow event. Knowing my luck it will come end of feb/early march when I’m away again 😂😢

Oh i feel your pain 😛

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Hoping for the current blob in the English channel to shift directly north or is Thanet's micro climate going to kill that as well?

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10 minutes ago, snowray said:

Interesting that Hirlam 12z still going for snow hanging on in the far east tonight, east Kent looking good for a couple of cm's I'd say, and even moving back westwards for a while by 6am.:oldsmile:

EDIT...Thats the 12z, 18z out soon.

hirlam-1-13-0.png

hirlam-1-17-0.png

It’s already started building on the live radar around Folkestone.

There could be some very surprised people in the morning 

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10 minutes ago, Matty J said:

And i missed that as i was in the Caribbean! 

Hence my impatience at waiting for a decent snow event. Knowing my luck it will come end of feb/early march when I’m away again 😂😢

More than happy to swap snow here for the Caribbean if you want!

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29 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Nothing of note over Boxley Maidstone, to me looks like a Medway shield.

You're turn will be tomorrow-still better than my area of NW Kent no settling snow tonight and probably just about too far west for the lot over the rest of Kent (when it's actually cold enough to settle tomorrow.) Although as BBC said it could reach as far inland as East/SE London for a time so we live in hope!

Edited by Kentspur

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Just taken my girls back,all I have is rain im afraid,hint of some sleetyness as I got back to my flat in northiam,but it is 70m asl

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Just want to make a quick comment on the 12z runs. Still looking like local Meteorologist Ian Currie isn't going to be far off the mark, if the Models are to be believed. His "few bites at the cherry" comment, seem to be ringing true.

All the Models I've looked at, seem to suggest the next "bite of the cherry" Northerly, will come between Saturday and Sunday. The ICON view of the synoptic set-up come Saturday evening, is pretty typical of all the Model runs, I've seen this evening but the ridge soon topples and so we move on to the next "bite" and hopefully the one which will benefit all. 

      12z ICON (22.00). SAT.26th JAN.

 image.thumb.png.1278ed8030fb2714d6f3c571a2a1f76e.png

As I stated this morning, each subsequent Arctic attack seems to be backing the pattern westward each time, and hopefully will allow, a more definitive Arctic attack.

       12z GFS (01-00). FRI.1st FEB.

image.thumb.png.70035801ceccaf2799c3fe29e90ebbba.png

The GFS chart above showing a more substantial Northerly and as Mr.Currie suggested a couple of weeks ago, perhaps veering N.E., after a day or so. The ECM (t240) is fairly similar to the above chart but perhaps a day slower to show the evolution of an Arctic sourced Northerly.

Interestingly but obviously, way out in la, la land, the evolution of this pattern goes on to facilitate a Scandinavian High to form further on into February, just as Ian Currie suggested that kind of scenario may happen. See GFS chart below:

         12z GFS (01.00) 7th FEB.

image.thumb.png.0a72a13807b0e39af404f7c09187078b.png

I should imagine that a lot of members from around the region are hoping that Ian Currie has called this kind of Synoptic evolution, correctly.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

    

 

 

 

Edited by TomSE12

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Hail shower around 16.00, an occasional few seconds of tiny snowflakes since then but mainly if anything has been falling it's just very faint drizzle, 0.3C now.

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Just before I retire to bed, just want to post up the Dutch Radar and their Forecast for Sneeuw chances, in the East of our region:

https://www.buienradar.nl/

Very best of luck to all. Night, night.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Ps. Sorry you need to click on SNEEUW, which is depicted in yellow.

 

Edited by TomSE12

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Good news with tonight's gfs run.  Next wks potential cold spell being b/fwd to the wk-end!

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1 minute ago, Gazza said:

Good news with tonight's gfs run.  Next wks potential cold spell being b/fwd to the wk-end!

Brought Forward 😲 What you Mean......What you Mean......Before Day 10 😨

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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Brought Forward 😲 What you Mean......What you Mean......Before Day 10 😨

Earlier and better ridging towards Greenland leading to earlier northerly for UK by end of wkend. Just one run but promising!

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Outside my work right now in basildon- it was beautiful snow fall so pretty to see proper fluffy flakes.

20190122_202546.jpg

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Lol

Look at the Pivot on the radar, its actually moving NNW about 50 miles out from the Estuary, now where is that going ??

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8 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Lol

Look at the Pivot on the radar, its actually moving NNW about 50 miles out from the Estuary, now where is that going ??

Interesting if that carries on! 

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