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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


Blessed Weather

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

Benign but at least it's not mild. Scraping the barrel at the moment hoping the ssw hasn't taken full effect yet 

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Just got in from picking up one of the kids.

Further west towards the M25 it is around 0c 

Here in Leigh on Sea it is currently -2c with a Hard Frost forming on all Vehicles

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Posted
  • Location: Medway 21m asl
  • Location: Medway 21m asl

Frost on vehicles at 22:30 in lower Gillingham and Parkwood Rainham.  

Looking forward to some proper weather instead of the plain white sky we've had of late.

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

Anyone reckon we’ll get some snow out of Tuesday’s front? 

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Day 10 onwards charts looking good again I see.

Sunday Crisp and Sunny temps 5c

Monday Cloudier 5c

Tuesday I can only really see back edge wet snow from cold air undercutting, maybe a dusting all gone by wednesday

Wednesday to Sunday - High Pressure boring interspersed sunny and cloudy days and maybe a few frosts - Average or just below average temps

Another 10 days gone for Winter 18/19 and still just a few flakes of snow on the breeze to show for it

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

Well im off to bed,been a very disappointing day,still,it could be worse,fingers crossed for a major model flip later

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

I'm trying to keep the faith, the models can't even agree at day 3 or 4 let alone 10 days things could change back in favour just as quickly all the while there are a few decent ensembles and clusters we could have some nice surprises.All we can do is to hope for a better day tomorrow. FWIW I always believe early February was our most likely time. Remember it was always meant to be a slow burner this time round and would take a few bites of the cherry. Surely the  EC46/ for example and the seasonal models can't be that wrong! For such a long period?!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex near Ongar
  • Weather Preferences: weather, especially snow, and a lovely frost
  • Location: Essex near Ongar

A good frost here this morning on the way home from work last at, at 10.30pm -1 brr, now -2 at the moment :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex

Beautiful crisp morning here in South Woodham, a proper frost and it’s still hovering around -4. A  colder night than I was led to expect.

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Posted
  • Location: Sittingbourne Kent
  • Location: Sittingbourne Kent
6 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Retired to bed last night after viewing the GFS 18Z, the PV taking on the appearance of a very rude Phallic symbol, that had taken too much Viagra. So, was hoping to wake up to some "orgasmic" type runs this morning but unfortunately, IMO, they're just so, so. I think the oft used phrase "jam tomorrow", will be used a lot again this morning.

                  ICON 24th JAN.

image.thumb.png.43b09244271dad7df779cc7d0db6b03f.png

                 JMA 24th JAN.

image.thumb.png.d75db8016102109c45e92a7bf55566cf.png

As I stated yesterday, really hope that two of the so called "lesser" Models, have called the Synoptic evolution, correctly. See charts above. Even though that NNE/NE flow won't benefit all members, I would imagine those in East Kent, especially over the N.Downs, would do pretty well in terms of snowfall, should that Synoptic set-up, come to fruition.

Just want to post up a couple of quotes from a post I made yesterday lunchtime, after my phone conversation with local Meteorologist, Ian Currie:

Quote:

"Ian stated it's typical that, confusion reigns when you throw a SSW, into the mix." 

I think this clearly evident in the Forecast Models at the moment and there may still be some more chopping n' changing, in the days ahead!!

Quote:

"I asked Ian, which is his Forecast Model of preference? He stated that he puts more faith in the UKMO Model, for short range modelling. At longer range modelling, Ian thinks that the well known Models are pretty all "much  of a muchness" But Ian did rate the Met Office Model, as the best over shorter timescales. He also stated that the "bad press" that the GFS gets from time to time, is unwarranted and every Forecast Model has it's "ups and downs". "

Seemingly, the PV will  morph into a rabbit, soon. Let's hope we will all become "Happy Bunnies", in a short while. 

image.thumb.png.a6bce983a21bb47d7330b1f36b55542e.png

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

Keeping the faith Tom. I too think we could see the charts flip back around.??

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

well anything  could  happen after  Tuesday  if   this  right!  ps car saying  -3  in ipswich

gfs-2-54.png

gfs-2-66.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
16 hours ago, Matty J said:

I often wish we could go back to a day before the likes of these Netweather forums and being able to view charts etc.

In a matter of hours we’ve gone from a possible Narnia event to basically miserable winter dross and most posters in the MOD thread wanting to top themselves

I’ve lost count of the amount of times the models have shown epic wintryness only for us to end up with absolutely nothing, I’m fed up with the constant disappointments ☹️

Unfortunately that’s part of living in the UK with regard to the climate, you either get used to regular disappointment, or move. There will be times though, when some more exciting weather comes along. Even back in the 1980’s, when there were more instances of cold and snow, there were still plenty of winters that were mild and didn’t see much, or any snow. Of course, like you say, back then we didn’t have the internet and access to extended chart output, etc, so life wasn’t nearly as stressful for the average weather enthusiast. I always think anything more than 5 days or so in the models is just conjecture. Some experts (the Met Office and some knowledgeable  posters on here) have been consistent in their opinion of a very different second half to winter, so all is not lost, imho. Still plenty of time for cold and snow ⛄️ 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Coldest morning of the 'winter' so far at -4C. Sunny though.

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL

Morning

A nice sunny morning here, was above freezing all night though until 6am when it dropped rapidly to a low of -0.8c at about 8:30am. 

Now -0.2c with a DP of -0.8c 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl

Sun hasn’t yet broken through the heavy mist. Hard frost and currently -3

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

It is still -4.1c in the garden. Heavy Frost. Lovely cold day (not) to take bubs to swim school. Never know what to wear as it is, but i'm going to freeze getting there, bake watching then freeze again. 

The weather is trolling me.

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