SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[CanadianCoops 1,659]

Think I’ll move back to Canada ❄️ lol . Keep the faith. It’ll snow this year. Maybe Dec this year 🙄

Edited January 19 by CanadianCoops

[Kentish Man 53]

6 minutes ago, Bedfordblues73 said:

Lots of towels being thrown in on the Mod thread , Winter over etc.... might give it a miss for a while .......

Yes it's all going the going the way of the pear (again) seems to be the general vibe. 

[EWS 102]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi Lottie,

Yes let's hope UKMO are right, if so your area SHOULD, do well. Ah Feb 1983, Capel resembled a Siberian wasteland!!

You would never have thought that Bromley and Capel were located in the same County, albeit they're a long way apart.

I have some lovely photos of my son and daughter (Antony and Hayley), up to their knees in snow at Capel, either Feb 1991 or 1994, I'm not sure. My children have the photos over in Chislehurst. I'll have to dig them out, as I nearly had to that day at Capel!! I also have some lovely photos of them feeding deer at a snow blanketed, Knole Park, Sevenoaks, again either Feb 1991 or 1994. We had a lovely day in Sevenoaks. Some of the photos are almost Lowryesque. Matchstick figures silhouetted against the snow covered landscape. Lots of people were sledging on the slopes around Knole Park. Plenty on dinner trays, black bin liners, anything they could lay their hands on. I'll have to post the photos up, when I can find them.

Regards,

Tom. 

Hi Tom,

I suspect it was 1991 - I was at school in Sandwich at the time, which closed early as the snow started coming down and we barely made it home to Thanet before everything stopped and we were snowed in for a couple of days. That was the deepest and most disruptive snow, I believe, since 1987 and really sticks in my memory (mostly because I was so bored being stuck at home, I actually got completely up to date with my GCSE coursework before school reopened 😆)

[username home 256]

so it’s all over then? 

[Kentish Man 53]

16 minutes ago, username home said:

so it’s all over then? 

The cold north easterly on yesterdays models for the latter half of next week seems to have disappeared and that synoptic is generally better for sustained cold in the south east than say the NWly type that others up country benefit from. There is a hint of NElys on the GFS model in the 10 day plus period but that far out it always seems elusive. Best us ever to see if the downgrading trend is confirmed by this evenings model output.  

Edit I should say the charts are still not too bad with some snow possible in the coming week even down south but no severe cold and a possible return to milder conditions later in the week.   

Edited January 19 by Kentish Man

[Matty J 119]

That 1991 forcast really brings back some memories @Paul Sherman!

A black cloud and 2 snowflakes was when you really knew you were in for a pasting. That was back when the TV forcasts were exciting 😁

[Thinon 110]

I know we shouldn't take the BBC graphics too seriously, but it's currently showing 9C for London next Saturday, when this forum was predicting an Ice Age!

Edited January 19 by Thinon

[Paul Sherman 5,574]

40 minutes ago, Thinon said:

I know we shouldn't take the BBC graphics too seriously, but it's currently showing 9C for London next Saturday, when this forum was predicting an Ice Age!

Thank god for that, got lots of important things to do next weekend and was secretly praying (Sorry Snowbies) that next weekend would be mild and easy to get about.

Phew 

[James Gold 133]

80% of latest GFS ensemble members have snow in London on Tuesday, so that’s still a hope for our region. Downbeat in the MOD thread today, but reasons to be sceptical of the big shift have been highlighted so we’re still in the game as far as I can see

[Wimbledon88 530]

1 hour ago, username home said:

so it’s all over then? 

Over?

No, because it was never going to happen. 

[Chris101 684]

18 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Over?

No, because it was never going to happen. 

Plenty said that before every cold spell in the internet era.

Even last year😂

[alexisj9 5,960]

Hi everyone, let's see what happens in the near term first, then worry about later in the week, after that. Currently cool, but quite sunny, with patches of high cloud, here in Dover.

[Ed Stone 36,119]

What a pleasant surprise: dry, sunny, 4.8C and a lightish southerly breeze!

[Ed Stone 36,119]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Hi everyone, let's see what happens in the near term first, then worry about later in the week, after that. Currently cool, but quite sunny, with patches of high cloud, here in Dover.

Good to see you back, Helena!👍

[Ben Capee McInnes 130]

People in that thread think it's the end of the world. We shall see what happens! Its at least exciting now! 

[Dbarb 135]

Currently have some sleety rain or are my eyes deceiving me 😂

[TomSE12 6,097]

Just been speaking to local Meteorologist, Ian Currie. Ian is pretty much in the same boat as us, regarding the current volatility in the Models. He stated it's typical that, confusion reigns when you throw a SSW, into the mix.

He still is of the opinion that we won't see strong blocking over Greenland but rather High Pressure  in mid-Atlantic, throwing ridges Northwards, from time to time. We may be affected by transient Northerlies, on the back of this sort of pattern. He's also of the opinion that any blocking over Scandinavia won't be witnessed, until further into February. Perhaps when the Atlantic calms down a bit, although that sort of blocking not a guarantee.

He still thinks it will remain on the cold side though and as that cold becomes a bit more entrenched, then our snow chances will increase. He did mention that it is exceptionally cold over N.E.Canada at the moment and as we know, that will tend to fire up the Jet Stream further. 

I asked Ian, which is his Forecast Model of preference? He stated that he puts more faith in the UKMO Model, for short range modelling. At longer range modelling, Ian thinks that the well known Models are pretty all "much  of a muchness" But Ian did rate the Met Office Model, as the best over shorter timescales. He also stated that the "bad press" that the GFS gets from time to time, is unwarranted and every Forecast Model has it's "ups and downs".

Ian confirmed to me that he still supplies Forecasts to Media outlets. He also supplies Forecasts to Waitrose, to give to Vineyard owners that produce wine, under that Supermarket's "banner".

His own Forecasting Tools are based on looking at Model Runs and Ensemble trends, also his tens of years experience, of keeping his own Weather Records and observing Weather patterns.

I also asked Ian if any of his County Weather Book Series, are still available? They are officially out of print now but Ian has some still at home. He has quite a few of the KENT, BERKSHIRE and HAMPSHIRE, editions. Prices of which, are as follows:

KENT: £11 (inc. P. & P.)

BERKSHIRE: £5 (inc. P. & P.)

HAMPSHIRE: £5 (inc. P.& P.)

The discrepancy in price due to the fact that the Kent edition is much thicker than the other two. Ian said he would gladly sign a copy for you, if you so wished and also throw in an edition of his Weather Eye magazine.

I'll now post up the link to contact details on his website, FROSTED EARTH:

http://www.frostedearth.co.uk/contact/

Please feel free to mention my name Tom (Meyers) from Netweather, as an introduction.

I can highly recommend the Kent edition. It's my second Kent book, the first one fell apart due to being "well thumbed".

I would describe them as being strong paperbacks. The Kent edition is 180+ pages long and certainly worth the money!!

The Kent edition begins with a short mention of the weather in Kent from thousands of years ago and ends with short items on the years of 2006 and 2007, with much, much more in between!!

I want to reiterate, I receive no financial remuneration for plugging Mr.Currie's books. Ian has become a good friend and I value his thoughts on the weather. Also, I think they are a must read for any weather enthusiast, living in those Counties.

Regards,

Tom. 

[Sussex Snowman 31]

Can’t help but feel responsible for the about turn on the models as I ordered a sledge off Amazon yesterday 😬

[Dbarb 135]

Looks like we have a Thames streamer setting up right now developing over the narrow Thames which is odd, goes to show not a lot of instability is needed to create streamers?

[lottiekent 1,356]

23 minutes ago, Sussex Snowman said:

Can’t help but feel responsible for the about turn on the models as I ordered a sledge off Amazon yesterday 😬

I told some people at work so also my fault 😩

Edit: also some weather - currently 3.4c with DP of 0.4c

Edited January 19 by lottiekent

[Snipper 604]

45 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What a pleasant surprise: dry, sunny, 4.8C and a lightish southerly breeze!

Could do with the sun down here please.

Been bottling a brew of beer so been inside.

Trying to decide which day to get up to Southwold to check my mum’s place. Having recently had 6 or so weeks of getting to Colchester every day for radiotherapy I am not keen on yet another trip along the A12.

[Paul Sherman 5,574]

Must be Anaprop

Am underneath the blob and its milky blue skies to my east and cloud to my west.

Nothing falling at all unless its further over towards Rayleigh and Wickford way

[hernebaylooby 525]

40 minutes ago, Sussex Snowman said:

Can’t help but feel responsible for the about turn on the models as I ordered a sledge off Amazon yesterday 😬

Same here 🤦

[lassie23 14,286]

OCTOBER FOG INDEX 6 WEATHER MODELS 0

[Dami 2,983]

stop it everyone. it's my fault telling hubs it was going to snow, which made him go food shopping.  no idea what this 'sun' people speak off is, either.