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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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Up very early, cold annoying me and preventing me from sleeping.:oldangry:

A quick glance at the radar reveals that the conveyor belt of heavy showers, has finally been turned off. The last of the thundery "trains" departing the E.Kent coast, a short while ago. So here in Lee yesterday we experienced three separate, thundery showers, albeit no more than a few rumbles in each. Still pretty noteworthy and something I've rarely experienced in my lifetime, in Summer months, let alone November. 

Rang local weatherman Ian Currie last night, down in Storrington, West Sussex and we even "out-thundered! him. Although it has been very wet, down there. Since Fri/Sat's, frontal rain, Ian's weather station has recorded 33+ mms of rainfall. Well over an inch of rain, in old money, to add to the heavy rain, of Fri/Sat!! 

I mentioned the growing excitement on the MOD thread re. a cold spell in 7/10 days time. He did indeed confirm that he thought it would turn much colder, than of late but that it was too premature to be talking about the "S" word. 

I mentioned to him that, back in my mid-teens, I can vividly remember watching Grandstand on a Saturday afternoon (for those of you too young to remember, a Sports programme.), one late November. Quick as a flash. he came up with the date, Sat.29th Nov.1969.  Mr.Currie has an amazing  memory, for extreme weather events!!The "Grandstand" programme was interrupted to give out a "flash" weather warning!! Disruptive snow was expected to move into Eastern districts, from the east coast and give a few inches in places, I was living in Bromley, Kent at the time. By mid-afternoon it started to snow and we had a decent covering, in Bromley. Very rarely have I seen a TV programme interrupted to give out a severe weather warning, perhaps only once before. See below for archive chart, of that event:

SAT.29th NOV.1969.

archives-1969-11-29-12-0.png

A brief foretaste of Winter but the high "toppled, a day later!!

This from the November segment of, Trevor Harley's excellent British Weather, website:

Quote: 

"1969 Fairly sunny, but very unsettled, and quite cool overall. 21C recorded at Totnes on the 3rd. 100 mm of rain fell in Country Antrim on the 21st. There was a severe cold snap at the end, with heavy snowfalls and strong northerly winds."

Looked at a recording for, "Weather for the Week ahead", when I came downstairs. A much quieter day today, dry with sunny spells and still a mild 14c, in the London area. Remaining mild and dry for the rest of the week (Thurs. warmest day, poss.16c/17c for London area) and on into the weekend, with the likelihood of some overnight mist and fog, by the end of the week/weekend, which may be stubborn and slow to clear, as winds fall light, making it murky and gloomy. The forecaster then made a reference to the likelihood of colder air encroaching from the east, as we head into the following week. 

That's my interpretation of the week ahead, for our region.

Just seen some superb photos of "mammatus" clouds taken by "weather watchers" during yesterday's thundery showers, on the latest forecast.

08_28_2012_mammatus-clouds.jpg

Hope you all have a good, drying out day!!

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Edited by TomSE12
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Good morning Tom

I woke up at 2 am with pain and had to take my pain medication, it took about half an hour or more before the pain medication started to work.  I woke up this morning to a beautiful sunny day and Simba my cat is smiling as he bathes in the sun. The sky at the front of my flat is filled with stratocumulus clouds but at the back of my flat, the sky is clear. The temperature is 9 °C.

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Morning Katrine and everyone,

Beautiful morning here in S.E.London and what a difference to this time yesterday. We were in the middle of that first thundery "train" of showers.

My thoughts and prayers are with my Nephew, his American wife and their baby daughter. They live at Sherman Oaks, a little way N.W. of Los Angeles, just off the Ventura Highway. When I heard Thousand Oaks mentioned the other day, with regard to that shooting and then the outbreak of forest fires, my blood ran cold, until I realised it was a different place.

They are surrounded by forest fires. As some of you are aware, exactly a year ago, California was badly affected by forest fires, again. Fortunately they escaped unharmed but it was a close run thing!! Also by mid-December, they had come to stay with his mother/father, my sister/brother-in-law, on the Kent/S.E.London border, for Xmas. You can imagine my sister's relief. She must be frantic with worry again.

I've just been reading Jo Farrow's blog about the event and the forecast, Santa Ana winds. They really could have done with the rainfall that we've had, over the past few days. Really worrying times, for our family.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Edited by TomSE12
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8 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Just seen some superb photos of "mammatus" clouds taken by "weather watchers" during yesterday's thundery showers, on the latest forecast.

The image you posted was taken in Nebraska 2013, so I suspect someone tried to get away with that. lol

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Apparently, the beast from the east is on the horizon🐻🦁🐲

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Doubt it.  Just going to get a bit colder. 

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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

The image you posted was taken in Nebraska 2013, so I suspect someone tried to get away with that. lol

Hi Mapantz,

No sorry, I selected it out of photos of these clouds. :oops: I wanted to post up an example for those members, who hadn't seen these clouds before.  A rather extreme example, I know.I should've mentioned that in my post.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Apparently, the beast from the east is on the horizon🐻🦁🐲

No doubt they ll soon be squabbling on the MAD thread if models aren't showing 2m of snow in the back garden of 27 Acacia Grove at 2.45pm on 2nd December etc. 

Certainly looking like a cold spell coming up mind. Personally I'm going to stick with Met updates from now on. They really have been very impressive for the last 12/18 months.

Nice day today. 14.2c and sunny. 

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1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

No doubt they ll soon be squabbling on the MAD thread if models aren't showing 2m of snow in the back garden of 27 Acacia Grove at 2.45pm on 2nd December etc. 

Certainly looking like a cold spell coming up mind. Personally I'm going to stick with Met updates from now on. They really have been very impressive for the last 12/18 months.

Nice day today. 14.2c and sunny. 

What are the met saying

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5 hours ago, lassie23 said:

What are the met saying

Much colder next week with strong easterly winds, especially in the south. Snow, mostly on high ground. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Much colder next week with strong easterly winds, especially in the south. Snow, mostly on high ground. 

 

Oh that’s a nuisance as I haven’t insulated my greenhouses yet. 

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Have come downstairs early again, as remnants of cold still bothering me. So have made a quick brew and supping that whilst digesting a recording of "WFTWA", with Louise Lear.

Very pleasant few days ahead, for our region. Remaining mild, sunny spells with a flow from the S/S.W. Temps "maxing", at around 15/16, perhaps 17c for the London area tomorrow. High Pressure to our ESE, firmly in control and keeping any frontal rain, way to our W/N.W.High Pressure then starts to transfer northwards towards Scandinavia, over the weekend. Still remaining mild but cooling off a tad, around 13/14c, to begin with. Sunday sees temps, starting to drop further, around 11c. With winds falling light, overnight mist/fog starting to become an issue and being sluggish to clear in the morning, so perhaps a bit gloomy and murky, A.M. for a while. Early next week as High Pressure transfers a little further westwards near Iceland, max temps fall further, perhaps down to 8c, by Tuesday, as an easterly breeze starts to freshen. Louise stopped there and didn't go any further. Certainly no mention of the "S" word, in the further outlook, "caption". But she did emphasise the lowering temperature trend.

I must admit that some of the model forecast( and I emphasise FORECAST!!) runs, for mid. to end of next week, are amongst the coldest I've seen, for the time of year, since becoming a member of Netweather in JAN.2005.

But there is no way I'm going to be sucked into some of the hysteria being exhibited, on the MAD thread. I'm way too "long in the tooth", for that. Certainly, some encouraging signs but no more than that, at the moment. :nonono:

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Edited by TomSE12
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Very interesting updates from the Met Office, a short while ago. As we know from past experience, they are generally reticent about using the "s" word. But they've suggested hill snow in southern and central areas plus possible wintry showers.

Certainly advisable to keep excitement under wraps, for the time being. But I stand by what I posted this morning. These are some of the coldest model runs I've seen, for the time of year, during my time on Netweather(Jan.2005).

Very encouraging, at the moment.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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all  i say its looking  good!!:cold:

gfs-2-384.png

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44 minutes ago, tinybill said:

all  i say its looking  good!!:cold:

gfs-2-384.png

hopefully better than that chart shows !!

Edited by Badgers01
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58 minutes ago, tinybill said:

all  i say its looking  good!!

gfs-2-384.png

Hmm, how so? Looks dry here from that chart, might be sunny though

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Just now, stainesbloke said:

Hmm, how so? Looks dry here from that chart, might be sunny though

that's what I thought - posted a chart with no snow on it for south east !! there are better one around - have a look in the mad thread ! Best remember your hard hat though as some serious beef flying around

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2 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

hopefully better than that chart shows !!

Triangle of Doom would disagree !! 

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2 hours ago, tinybill said:

all  i say its looking  good!!

gfs-2-384.png

Great chart @tinybill plenty of ppn around, hopefully as we get nearer the time uppers become even more conductive for snow 

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I’ve been running around today none stop but I did manage to have a few words to myself in the car about the weather today (yes I’m mad) it was really quite warm today, didn’t need a jacket till around 16.00. Sooooo glad it has stopped raining, does anyone know the rain totals roughly over the last few days???  Maybe an interesting week or so ahead, can you imagine the S word so early in the season?? 

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Up at a more sensible time today. Frustratingly, a recording of WFTWA, failed to record!! :oldangry:

But nothing much has changed looking at the overnight model runs and the national forecast, with Carole Kirkwood. Having looked at the London area forecast with Elizabeth Rizzini, quite a bit of mist and murk this morning and very mild. That murk could hang around in southern portions of our region. Further north, we could manage a few cloud breaks. Temps reaching 16c/17c, locally. Tomorrow, pretty much a repeat performance, perhaps a tad cooler. High Pressure over Eastern Europe then amalgamates with a cell over Western Russia and starts to transfer towards Scandinavia, winds start to freshen from the S.E, this will have the affect of dispersing the murk and lowering the temps, a tad more, to around 11c. Our High then starts to transfer a little further westwards, towards Iceland. The wind backs towards the east and freshens further. This will knock a few more degrees, off the temperatures. With the strength of the wind, a max of 7c/8c, will make it feel decidedly chilly. 

I must say some of those forecast charts, for the middle of next week, had it been a few weeks further down the line, would have had me salivating at the prospect. The 850hPa and wind flow charts for  ECMWF, next Weds. Very interesting, from an IMBY, point of view. But think it's still premature to mention the "S" word.

ECM0-144.GIF

ECM4-144.GIF

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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11 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

that's what I thought - posted a chart with no snow on it for south east !! there are better one around - have a look in the mad thread ! Best remember your hard hat though as some serious beef flying around

Haha, usual story at this time of the year! Looks very likely that there’ll be a big cool down next week across most of the UK, though nothing very exciting showing for our region. Maybe some showers? Looks a bit too warm still for snow. 

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get the prozac ready its getting worse the mad thread is into its earliest hyperbole i can remember for ages

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5 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Haha, usual story at this time of the year! Looks very likely that there’ll be a big cool down next week across most of the UK, though nothing very exciting showing for our region. Maybe some showers? Looks a bit too warm still for snow. 

just some dry frosty weather and freezing fog would suit me given the time of year. 

Edited by Badgers01
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A lovely, sunny 15C up here!

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