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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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i hope an easterly develops whilst Darren bett is on duty, with subzero temps across the whole of the UK. I bet he will still get' at least it will be milder' in his forecast for somewhere in the UK

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CMA - Chinese Model has really been consistent with the very cold air over the UK/Ireland for a few days now. Very interesting ❄️

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anim_etj1.gif

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Proper soaking rain now in South London.A welcome change. Feeling colder too. Proper weather at last. 

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Drizzly - bit chilly - overcast - generally unpleasant

Unless we get sub-zero temps and a blizzard (min 1 only - easy to please)  roll on spring

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TBH this is not a bad little Outlook for us, best we can hope for as things stand?

 

This Evening and Tonight:

Dry, clear and colder conditions spreading to all parts through the evening, once early rain clears London and Kent. Becoming cloudier and breezier around midnight, with occasionally heavy and perhaps wintry showers arriving. Minimum temperature 1 °C.

Thursday:

Feeling colder on Thursday with occasionally heavy and possibly wintry showers soon clearing to sunshine. Frost developing quickly overnight. Winds easing. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Dry, cold and bright start to Friday with rain and sleet reaching far west and spreading east overnight. Cold and cloudy Saturday, turning drier. Sunday brighter but possible sleet later.

Updated: 13:41 on Wed 16 Jan 2019 GMT

 

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Quite a wild feel out there. Torrential downpour moving over the area. Been a long time since I saw rain like that...

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It's all positive and upbeat again in the MOD thread due to a U-turn by the GFS and a better UKMO run, now for the ECM to ruin everything and Prozac time again.

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Who turned the heating off? It's gone down to 4c here. It had better snow if we have to suffer these cold temps.

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Had thunder today and some other weather which was welcomed

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Well that was a dramatic drop in temperature! Think the back edge of the front must’ve passed through!

 

691CCA89-D43A-485E-89D1-A1DAEE96CAD5.png

Edited by lottiekent
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Looks like we have the potential to be  in for some "last minute, crop up surprises" over the next week or so! Meto on board so feeling more optimistic than normal!😃x

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Oh dear got burnt again in the MOD thread to suggest the pattern at post day 10 might be a bit flat upstream (just as a hypothetical view point) and yes posts coming out saying I was 'worrying' and 'outrageous with my quotes' - but strangely it's Okay to suggest locked in cold at day 10 and similar suggestions.

Pretty angry and not sure I'll post in that thread again...

 

Edited by Froze were the Days

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There is no way it will verify

 

It will get chilly but nothing like the charts that are showing

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CMA - Chinese Model is still showing consistency with the very cold air over UK/Ireland ❄️❄️

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I went on to the mod thread earlier in the day to find it was a very u happy place and now once again things seem to have turned around. Netweather are forecasting a 86% chance of snow for us on Wednesday/Thursdays what on earth happened ?????????? Have they seen something or do you think they felt sorry for us people near the coast????🤣

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Liking the look of that High, just to the North of Scandinavia on the 12z ECM. I know at it's at t216 and we'd need it to be showing at a much closer timescale but IMO it is certainly on the menu. Lapland has been having quite a bit of snow recently, courtesy of low pressure in the Norwegian Sea and finding itself on the N.E. flank, of our resident High. But it would be quite a logical progression to see a High build over the bitter cold snowfields of Scandinavia.

                ECM t216 (500's)

image.thumb.png.026c318be4e4d1e30420b6255dfd62f2.png

                ECM t216 (850's)

image.thumb.png.95cef579fbc603dfb13e119ae9467f49.png

If this scenario did occur we could then start to see those deep pinks/purples, dropping S.W., towards us!!

Somebody on the Model thread suggested January 1987, revisited. During that spell, the S.E. experienced 850 temps of around -20c, which gave a temperature differential in the mid to late 20'sC. This temperature differential caused great instability between the Upper Air (850 temps) and the surface of the North Sea. Normal "Snow Streamers", merged into a great Ocean of snow, for the S.E. Here is a link to a website showing current S.S.T's, around our coastline:

https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/united-kingdom/

Here's hoping that we see this kind of Synoptic set-up, come to fruition. Still a long way off of course but we could see some substantial snowfall totals, if it happens!! 

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

Edited by TomSE12
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Some of our region could even see a little wintriness from a glancing blow of a "Dwarf from the North"

image.thumb.png.78fd238e79b16648e20cc70fcfbdc6d5.png

But of course it's another visit from a "Beast from the East", that we all hanker for!!

image.thumb.png.7647ba49181e590734b78b21a868c671.png

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

 

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Looks like an spell is coming. Look forward to Steve murrs post that will give us ideas of where snow will fall for our region. But we have to wait till we are at least 24h out to get any idea of where snow will fall. 

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Things starting to get interesting now and if there is universal agreement over next 24-48 hours from the big 3 over “slider gate” Then  the SE could be in business for early next week(22nd onwards).That would tie in nicely from the thoughts of Ian Currie who was kind enough to share his thoughts with TOMSE12 over last weekend.We just need the first slider to edge another 50 miles further West and then we are in with a shout. Nothing set in stone but at least we are in the game!!Would be great to see the SE THREAD IN MELTDOWN if the snow starts to fall and settle and with it come the glorious landscapes that can be shown by all the members on this forum.

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Possible Wintryness tomorrow Morning alligned with that trough over wales passing through-

 

NW of the region could then see some snow Friday Eve as the slider low fires its PPN east-

ICON

8FDB769C-6A2F-4D53-87E3-0ED7C0C87BF7.thumb.png.4aeac00110ad818c73afb48ae3b56da2.png

 

Current Temp in NAG .... 2.5c 🙂

 

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Evening peeps 😊

A very late one from me hope you all are ok. Just saw the extended BBC forcast I am confused. Com. The presenter said it will get cold for the week ahead but he went on to say high pressure building over us. This has got me concerned we all know what the previous high done.

He did say at the end there is still uncertainty and keep tuned. No one knows for sure what's going to happen it's a waiting game. Fingers crossed we get our Easterly.

the wait for our winter wonderland continues.

night night peeps

kind regards 😊😊😊😊

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This might be a completely stupid theory considering my still learning status.... I've noticed the Chinese and Japanese models both seem to have called this cold spell and shown more consistency.... we wondered if the SSW was affecting the chopping/changing output of GFS/ECM/UKMO - could it be that because the chinese/Japanese models were on the other side of where the SSW took place that they weren't as confused so much by it?! (This is where my brain drifts to at 11:22pm when I should really be asleep, lol!)x

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3 hours ago, steveinsussex said:

There is no way it will verify

 

It will get chilly but nothing like the charts that are showing

Mystic meg what are the lottery numbers? 😄  A few of us could see some wintry showers in very near term temperatures look to be colder at 2pm than in wee hours. 

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21 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

This might be a completely stupid theory considering my still learning status.... I've noticed the Chinese and Japanese models both seem to have called this cold spell and shown more consistency.... we wondered if the SSW was affecting the chopping/changing output of GFS/ECM/UKMO - could it be that because the chinese/Japanese models were on the other side of where the SSW took place that they weren't as confused so much by it?! (This is where my brain drifts to at 11:22pm when I should really be asleep, lol!)x

I have been monitoring the CMA - Chinese model for a few days and it has been very consistent with very cold flowing our way with the BFTE in the mix........Some models in general will go up and down on outputs due to the SSW propagating to the troposphere.........

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Looking at the radar that blob of precip is growing and becoming increasingly wintry? Something to watch?

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