SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[shotski]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Just had a really long and interesting chat with local Meteorologist Ian Currie. About to have my dinner and will post up some of his thoughts afterwards. 

Regards,

Tom.  

Come on Tom!!!

you must have finished desert by now

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, shotski said:

Come on Tom!!!

you must have finished desert by now

Hope Tom hasn't choked on too much sand?

[Emz by the Thames]

The wind is roaring though the trees outside my window - it's nice to hear some weather for a change!

Nice weekend at the allotment, mild enough to get maintenance done. But my gawd, these grey days are sooooooo boring.

Still, I went to a wassail today. Lots of  folklore about the changing of seasons and morris dancing...and cider!! 

[bluearmy]

49 minutes ago, shotski said:

Come on Tom!!!

you must have finished desert by now

Becoming cold with some snow ........... maybe quite a bit, maybe not ........

[Paul Sherman]

Model Thread has been shocking today, although a Forum Host I have no Modding duties or powers these days but boy I would have thrown the stick at some people in there. 

Week Beginning the 21st Jan has always been on my mind for our corner of the world and nothing has changed that view. 

But the good thing is its not going to be a 2 day few centimetres and thaw in the sun spell but much more drawn out which is a good thing.

Its coming!

[Tom Quintavalle]

As I stated above, had a really long chat with  local Meteorologist, Ian Currie. So much so, that the Wife's  Lasagna got burnt, was in trouble for that!! Problem is, once Ian starts talking about the weather it's hard to get him to stop.

I passed on our much thanks for allowing his views to be expressed on this Forum plus the posting of photos of snowfall, from his Kent and Surrey Weather books. Also passed on Paul Sherman's expressed thanks, for the above.

I also mentioned the disparaging remarks one member posted at the start of the week and how leaping to his defence, nearly got myself into "hot water". Ian wasn't unduly annoyed about this and has met with similar before.

Although interestingly, when based at Bracknell, the Met Office had a whole stock of Ian's County Weather books, on show for sale, in their foyer. So he does have some credence with the Met Office.

Ian then went on to detail other Meteorological projects he's been involved with.

As I stated the other day, Ian appeared on a Channel 4 programme about extreme weather. He also produced an item for Radio 4's PM programme with Eddie Mair in 2014, marking the 200th Anniversary of the last great Frost Fair on the Thames. 

Ian also put together a series of extreme weather programmes, produced by BBC South in Southampton. In one programme he recalled the very serious flooding at Martinstown Dorset, on 18th July 1955. Another programme focused on the severe weather that struck the South coast, 5th June 1983. A couple of small tornadoe's were reported along the South coast  when violent thunderstorms broke out, during the afternoon, A tornado at Poole in Dorset picked up a lot of coal and then returned to earth, encased in ice. Sailors sheltering in Poole harbour, had to put saucepans on their heads, to protect themselves. Another small tornado near Brighton, picked up a lot of crabs and gardens in the area were smothered with them.

Ian has just notched up his 5,000th Weather presentation talk, indeed he has another one tomorrow at Aylesbury, in Bucks. He wrote a weather column for the Gardening Magazine, for 18 years. He's written many weather columns for local newspapers, including the Surrey Mirror. Indeed in October 1987, Ian warned readers of the impending windstorm. 

So, perhaps members can understand why I got so annoyed at the disparaging remarks made about Ian, earlier in the week. He is hardly, Quote, "just another bloke off the TV". Sorry but I found that deeply insulting about my friend!!

Anyway, I'm glad I got that off my chest, back to the "here and now"

Ian's views about the impending weather havn't changed and we should start to see it's impacts, by the weekend.

As stated last weekend, he doesn't envisage a strong Greenland block but a strong ridge from a mid-Atlantic High, allied to lows tracking on a N.W/S.E. axis, after a few glancing blows that an Arctic sourced Northerly is likely to be on the menu, as we enter the last week of January, the flow may then towards the veer towards the N.E, for a while. Ian is not expecting a prolonged "freeze up" but cold spells punctuated by milder interludes. He does expect this sort of regime to last through February and perhaps into March, too. He expects the flow to be mainly from the North but that there was a chance that a Scandinavian High could develop, as we go through February, although no guarantee. Ian did note that there had been a lot of Northerly winds over Scandinavia and quite a bit of snow and some very deep low pressure at times, in the Norwegian Sea.  This build up of snow and a very cold region could well help to facilitate the build up of High Pressure over Scandinavia, as we enter the final month of Winter.

Ian finished our conversation by mentioning how unusually high his pressure readings have been this Winter so far. Indeed, 17 out of the last 18 measuring time-slots have featured, "dead calm", conditions. It's also resulted in a very dry Winter so far, at his Weather Station in Storrington, W.Sussex.

I ended our conversation, by thanking him greatly for his time and allowing his thoughts and snow photos, to be posted on this forum.

I'll end this post by putting up a YouTube clip, showing Ian performing part of his talk on Frost Fairs, on the Thames. It's a talk I've seen Ian perform three times and I could quite easily see it again, as it's so informative and entertaining.Here is the clip, below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMX-NeXje8M

Hopefully you can now put a face, to the name. I want a jumper like that!!

Regards,

Tom.  

 

Edited January 13, 2019 by TomSE12

[Tom Jarvis]

Just hope this cold spell delivers allot of snow for my area as the beast from the east last year. All we got was an couple of centermeters which didn’t last long.

[Tom Quintavalle]

I should also mention that Ian co-wrote the Dorset Weather book with Broadmayne Blizzard (you've no doubt seen B.B's posts on the Model thread), who's actual name is Mark Ching. Mark also wrote a book entitled, "Blizzard of 78". See link to Mark's book below:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Blizzard-78-Snowstorm-Buried-Dorset/dp/0956055303

It is a superb account of the tremendous snowstorm that struck the South West and Wales, between 18th and 20th February 1978. See archive chart below:

Mild air associated with a low in mid-Atlantic tried to dislodge bitter cold air, that was entrenched over the U.K at the time. The front stalled over the S.W. and dumped copious amounts of snow, over that area.The book gives a superb account of how the blizzard impacted on Mark's,  Dorset life.

I hope Mark doesn't mind me mentioning this on the forum!! I did pass on Mark's best wishes to Ian Currie, kindly expressed to me in a PM, the other day.

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited January 13, 2019 by TomSE12

[moogyboobles]

On 12/01/2019 at 07:38, lassie23 said:

So i need my own youtube channel i take it

Yes, if you want to be able to post bigger videos on here it's probably the easiest way.

 

[Hotspur62]

10 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

I should also mention that Ian co-wrote the Dorset Weather book with Broadmayne Blizzard (you've no doubt seen B.B's posts on the Model thread), who's actual name is Mark Ching. Mark also wrote a book entitled, "Blizzard of 78". See link to Mark's book below:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Blizzard-78-Snowstorm-Buried-Dorset/dp/0956055303

It is a superb account of the tremendous snowstorm that struck the South West and Wales, between 18th and 20th February 1978. See archive chart below:

Mild air associated with a low in mid-Atlantic tried to dislodge bitter cold air, that was entrenched over the U.K at the time. The front stalled over the S.W. and dumped copious amounts of snow, over that area.The book gives a superb account of how the blizzard impacted on Mark's,  Dorset life.

I hope Mark doesn't mind me mentioning this on the forum!! I did pass on Mark's best wishes to Ian Currie, kindly expressed to me in a PM, the other day.

Regards,

Tom.  

That map of Feb 2018 shows you don’t need a GH To get a good snow event,just a wedge of heights will suffice.I think we will be very unlucky not to get at least one snow event in the next 6 weeks down here in the South East

Also thanks for sharing ICs views with us here on SE Thread-all good stuff!,

[snowrye]

48 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Just hope this cold spell delivers allot of snow for my area as the beast from the east last year. All we got was an couple of centermeters which didn’t last long.

Same as

[Froze were the Days]

Well at the half way point of the winter and let's face it it's been pretty forgettable, fairly mild a lot of cloudy calm days (as Ian Currie noted in Tom's post above) interspersed with briefly breezier brighter spells and very little in the way of frost...here's to a better second half! 

Edited January 14, 2019 by Froze were the Days

[Kent Blizzard]

The biggest question for me is how many bites at the cherry will we get. Things go pear shaped and we could have a long wait for another bite for anything decent.

Expect a chilly spell to see out January, but that's about it at present, unless you want to go deep into FI but the way the models have been, absolute no point ( If you really want to it is giving us a cold Feb)

 

 

 

 

 

[snowrye]

Anyone else getting the feeling its just not going to happen,I do hope im wrong,we just seem to be chasing charts that scream potential 10 days away

[snowrye]

And ive seen daffodils out and flowering

[Dami]

On Friday, there were mums in just a jumper and jeans waiting at home time. NO coat. In fact, if I hadn't got a cough I could of gotten away with it too. It's january, not May. 

Thankful due Bub and I both suffering that at the mo it isn't freezing cold, but I still would love to at least see some snow.

[Badgers01]

mowed the lawns today they were lush and green and smelt of spring !! still no clear signal for cold in the models that I can see end of jan the next window ?

[Kent Blizzard]

38 minutes ago, snowrye said:

And ive seen daffodils out and flowering

Doesn't mean much, look at last year, we still ended up getting Snow eventually.... though it was Spring!!

[yamkin]

 

[SLEETY]

well they been predicting that for ages still waiting......

[Bedfordblues73]

My 6 year old is waiting patiently for a sledge Day !!

[Donna3397]

1 hour ago, yamkin said:

 

i know we are apart of Europe but they never seem to say the UK, I think they know our luck is usually low with snow.

I have a special webpage for all the adverse weather in the uk and the world set up I know im a geek and what always interests me is how different they are. I read a paper yesterday saying that its going to be dry with no chance of snow for the next week or so, then today I had a look(the same paper) and now they are saying we are in for a cold, snowy next few weeks. I know from having looked at the mod thread that our chances of snow are reducing but from the papers today (the day the charts seem to be not liking us) they are teling me the opposite how the hell does that work????????????????????????????

[Blessed Weather]

31 minutes ago, Bedfordblues73 said:

My 6 year old is waiting patiently for a sledge Day !!

A warm welcome to the SE Regional forum Bedfordblues73. I think many of us are waiting patiently too! (And some not so patiently ).

Hopefully we won't be waiting for too much longer as there is every indication that we'll be seeing the white stuff at some stage over the coming weeks.

[stainesbloke]

20 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Here is the clip, below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMX-NeXje8M

Hopefully you can now put a face, to the name. I want a jumper like that!!

Regards,

Tom.  

 

Fantastic jumper, indeed! Will certainly be interesting to see if he is right about the next month or two

[yamkin]

3 hours ago, DonnaThw said:

i know we are apart of Europe but they never seem to say the UK, I think they know our luck is usually low with snow.

I have a special webpage for all the adverse weather in the uk and the world set up I know im a geek and what always interests me is how different they are. I read a paper yesterday saying that its going to be dry with no chance of snow for the next week or so, then today I had a look(the same paper) and now they are saying we are in for a cold, snowy next few weeks. I know from having looked at the mod thread that our chances of snow are reducing but from the papers today (the day the charts seem to be not liking us) they are teling me the opposite how the hell does that work????????????????????????????

There is no way anyone or those in the MOD thread can know this far out about the chances of snow ....The Yamkin motto: Get the cold in first and then focus on the snow at least a few days beforehand  There are good signs for much colder conditions which will be great for snow potential 

Edited January 14, 2019 by yamkin