Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Blessed Weather

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

Recommended Posts

Susan Powell's latest BBC weather forecast stated rain/sleet/snow first thing on Tuesday morning??? I'm surprised she did not include hail as well 🤣 Talk about covering their backsides 😂 Possible wet snow in the SE in the afternoon ❄️ At least she made it very clear that the slight milder temps on Thursday & Friday will only be temporary. Brace yourself for more cold from the weekend 🌬️

Edited by yamkin
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Susan Powell's latest BBC weather forecast stated rain/sleet/snow first thing on Tuesday morning??? I'm surprised she did not include hail as well 🤣 Talk about covering their backsides 😂 Possible wet snow in the SE in the afternoon ❄️ At least she made it very clear that the slight milder temps on Thursday & Friday will only be temporary. Brace yourself for more cold from the weekend 🌬️

I'm thinking it'll be sleety overnight into Tuesday morning. Then Tuesday afternoon/evening from say 5pm ish til late a good chance of some wet snow and the odd covering, obviously with elevation a big advantage. It depends how much the ground can dry out/cool down between the two events and how heavy the precip can be for the snow to settle IMO. Fun stuff all the same as it can change every hour. Keep an eye on the Met office forecast/warnings as the event nears - it could go either way

Edited by CanadianCoops
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Can anyone remember the last channel low we got that gave the SE a good dumping? I can remember all the easterlies so not sure if this is much rarer or I just haven't paid attention. I'm thinking early March 2005 was? Gave 8 inches on higher ground in SE. Any others?

HI CC and Yamkin,

Have just been reading CC's post, can't remember March 2005, tbh. Of course in March 2013, a low nearly made it into the Channel but stayed over N.France . There was an easterly gale causing heavy, drifting snow along the South Coast, Channel Islands and the extreme North of France. March 2013 was the first time, since  1937 that March returned a lower CET (2.7c), than the official Winter months of Dec,Jan and Feb. 

Below, is the archive chart, for midnight 12th March, 2013:

image.thumb.png.2c359a6a51d5c9146dbfbd4b0c66bbd6.png

I'll post up another couple of examples of blizzard inducing Channel Lows. in a short while, that occurred on the same date.

These examples occurred on the 30th December, some 16 years apart. Can any member, name the years??

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

 

 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

HI CC and Yamkin,

Have just been reading CC's post, can't remember March 2005, tbh. Of course in March 2013, a low nearly made it into the Channel but stayed over N.France . There was an easterly gale causing heavy, drifting snow along the South Coast, Channel Islands and the extreme North of France. March 2013 was the first time, since  1937 that March returned a lower CET (2.7c), than the official Winter months of Dec,Jan and Feb. 

Below, is the archive chart, for midnight 12th March, 2013:

image.thumb.png.2c359a6a51d5c9146dbfbd4b0c66bbd6.png

I'll post up another couple of examples of blizzard inducing Channel Lows. in a short while, that occurred on the same date.

These examples occurred on the 30th December, some 16 years apart. Can any member, name the years??

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

 

 

Thanks Tom! Where do you get your NCEP archived charts from? 

I think the 2005 was very localised and being up at blue bell hill over 500ft asl really helped. EDIT: I've just found the news report and seemed fairly widespread: 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4312903.stm

Here was the chart for that day.

image.thumb.png.939426fad51c24bbce1fda87f8b605bc.png

 

I'm going to guess 1962 and 1978?

Edited by CanadianCoops
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well done CC,

That was a very educated guess!!

That man wins a "virtual" trip, to the snowiest location on the planet :clap:

I'll post up the charts of those events plus my own recollections and perhaps some more Ian Currie photos, if I can find some

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Sussex Snowman said:

Sometimes I wish I lived in Norway. 

Or maybe Canada! My cousins aunty sent me this from Ottawa this morning!

Screenshot_20190121-124716_Messenger.jpg

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

 

Current Dew points looking a little bit lower ahead of the front than I think the models were predicting.. I think there could be more of a chance of some overnight heavy wet snow than currently expected

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Buzzit said:

Current Dew points looking a little bit lower ahead of the front than I think the models were predicting.. I think there could be more of a chance of some overnight heavy wet snow than currently expected

If the ppn is on the heavy side, evaporation cooling could occur which would add to the snow formation  ❄️

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Well done CC,

That was a very educated guess!!

That man wins a "virtual" trip, to the snowiest location on the planet :clap:

I'll post up the charts of those events plus my own recollections and perhaps some more Ian Currie photos, if I can find some

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

Thanks! I'll get my sledge 🙂 Those two dates certainly stick out as snowy/cold years 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

There was an easterly gale causing heavy, drifting snow along the South Coast, Channel Islands and the extreme North of France.

Not true.
I have the radar images for that, South coasts got barely a dusting. The channel islands got hit bad but it was a big fail down here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not true.
I have the radar images for that, South coasts got barely a dusting. The channel islands got hit bad but it was a big fail down here.

Seem to recall Brighton and that stretch of coastline had a very memorable event got a good dumping..

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not true.
I have the radar images for that, South coasts got barely a dusting. The channel islands got hit bad but it was a big fail down here.

We got hit really bad in Hastings, think it was around 12th/13th March 2013 - I had to leave work early and have the next day off, there were some impressive snow drifts around and there were also cars buried in snow up on the Ridge (high part of Hastings).

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

March 2013 was epic,I do love a channel low

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, TommyB said:

We got hit really bad in Hastings, think it was around 12th/13th March 2013 - I had to leave work early and have the next day off, there were some impressive snow drifts around and there were also cars buried in snow up on the Ridge (high part of Hastings).

You got quite lucky in that corner.

post-15177-0-34796800-1362988277.thumb.png.830458798ddc159352967c36a6ce13c2.pngpost-15177-0-54976200-1362992531.thumb.png.dd65696d3a6a328213c911bba72818ec.png

In the SW thread, we were all complaining about how badly they'd got it wrong due to the warnings put out.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

You got quite lucky in that corner.

post-15177-0-34796800-1362988277.thumb.png.830458798ddc159352967c36a6ce13c2.pngpost-15177-0-54976200-1362992531.thumb.png.dd65696d3a6a328213c911bba72818ec.png

In the SW thread, we were all complaining about how badly they'd got it wrong due to the warnings put out.

It was pretty epic!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Hmmm. Latest gfs

56C492EA-8C5A-43A3-A53F-F1CD6F89EA0A.thumb.jpeg.843160e5868b5d15d6de7e40e697d5be.jpeg

Hirlam agrees, icon doing its own ting and to far south

If the hirlam is right.. @Steve Murrgetting a pasting tomorrow night with a little shift 

winteroverview_20190121_12_040.thumb.jpg.fa3abac27933935e32b7cb9ce5dbd2c8.jpg

Hirlam performed exceptionally well last year with regards to micro features and troughs.. Closely followed by arpege icon then strangley arome.. 

Edited by Surrey
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

HI CC and Yamkin,

Have just been reading CC's post, can't remember March 2005, tbh. Of course in March 2013, a low nearly made it into the Channel but stayed over N.France . There was an easterly gale causing heavy, drifting snow along the South Coast, Channel Islands and the extreme North of France. March 2013 was the first time, since  1937 that March returned a lower CET (2.7c), than the official Winter months of Dec,Jan and Feb. 

Below, is the archive chart, for midnight 12th March, 2013:

image.thumb.png.2c359a6a51d5c9146dbfbd4b0c66bbd6.png

I'll post up another couple of examples of blizzard inducing Channel Lows. in a short while, that occurred on the same date.

These examples occurred on the 30th December, some 16 years apart. Can any member, name the years??

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

 

 

I'm not sure if it was a channel low but I'm sure in February 8th or 9th 2007 we had a good snow event. I was living in Hatfield, Herts studying at Uni at the time. I didnt drive then so had to trudge an hour to my uni lectures/ to the shops in thick snow I had no suitable footwear and was drenched by the time I got there🤣

In the morning Id awoken to find it snowing heavily we had around 6inches of snow in total as a band of rain hit the cold air in situ over the country. Back home further SE my parents in Dartford said they had had 3 to 4 inches atleast although it didn't settle for as long there. With the low ground/ urban heating effect which so often renders NW Kent snowless.

But after a snow starved 90s- mid 2000s period for us SE and EA folks it was a worthy event that sticks in my memory!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Buzzit said:

Current Dew points looking a little bit lower ahead of the front than I think the models were predicting.. I think there could be more of a chance of some overnight heavy wet snow than currently expected

May be, but I think they more ght start rising as we have a west wind and cloud coming in now. Hopefully it won't rise though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh dear. I'm going to have to own up to being 24 hours out!! :oops:

At the time of the 1962 event, I was 7. My family and myself lived in Hayes, just south of Bromley, N.W.Kent. Dad was working for Southern Region Railways at the time, maintaining bridges and track. Dad was working near London Bridge that night but he and his colleagues had to abandon work, when the snow set in. Dad then had to wait for a train back to Hayes , he had missed the last train and the first train back to Hayes, was around 6 AM. He faced a long and very cold wait. Hayes is the terminus, on that line but when the train reached Elmers End, the stop before Hayes, the train could go no further. Dad told me that snow had drifted up to the level of the platforms. Elmers End station is about 3 and a half miles from where we lived and in normal weather conditions, would've taken Dad around an hour, to walk home. That Sunday morning, with snow drifting up to his knees at times, it took Dad over 3 hours, to walk home!!

              00z  DEC.30th 1962

image.thumb.png.cbe3e51f0e92dce66932705e7296f0af.png

In  December 1978, I was working in East Dulwich, S,E.London and living with my parents between Grove Park and Bromley North . Coincidentally, the 1978 event also started on a Saturday evening. I had been having a drink with a couple of colleagues at a pub in East Dulwich and another one around the corher, in Camberwell. The snow started around 8 PM and I can vividly remember it blowing around and it took on the appearance of icing sugar.  The snow was very fine and powdery, as it was falling at very low temperatures. One of my colleagues gave me a lift home from Camberwell to the Grove Park/Bromley border. When we reached my home , the drifting was so great, that I couldn't make out the pathway, to my front door!! As I got out of the car and turned to face the wind, it was literally painful to breathe in. This is the most severe event I've witnessed, in terms of strength of wind combined with heavy snowfall!! As you can see from the archive chart below, the winds were very strong, indeed!!

               00z  DEC.31st 1978

image.thumb.png.45447d8f2a7a535e1fcce1c759a5b83d.png 

Below a photo of a 65 bus destined for Chessington Zoo, taken at Hook (A243), after the heavy snowfall of 31st December, 1978.

This photo is reproduced with the kind permission of Ian Currie, co-author of the Surrey Weather Book.

image.thumb.png.cff5ebbcd16106b4fe5d5da0dd46c301.png

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the mentions

 

Just driven home along the tops -

stopped off at the london golf course along West Kingsdown ~ 175M

Frost remaining at 415

1c Here - Probs around 0.7c there

63F6D5D8-0A0C-454C-9EFB-BAC0CD3DD8AF.thumb.jpeg.f0c57963468d7c7640ed47d0f279ce9c.jpeg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKMO 144 hinting at height rises southern Scandi...

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, shackforce said:

The Blood Moon last night in Kent ... 

2019_01.21-Blood-Moon-2-WEB.thumb.jpg.c9c9bce04dd99f2602553463ee831ddf.jpg

That is a fantastic photo!

The other one is good too, but I have one of my own 😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So how are we looking then for tomorrow? HIRLAM looks good for a few hours tomorrow evening, looks like the overnight stuff will fall as rain or sleet?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×