SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Tom Quintavalle]

7 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Having looked at the 12z runs, I'm even more convinced of an Arctic based Northerly, as we go further into March. The Models seem to be gearing themselves up for that scenario, there's some seriously cold air lurking to our North, waiting to surge South, given the opportunity. It will certainly come as a "shock to the system", after the current spell of weather.

One last hurrah, for us cold weather lovers!!

Regards,

Tom. 

Having looked at the very early overnight Model runs, I'm still of the same opinion, as my quoted post, above. At some point in the next couple of weeks, I think it's very likely that we could be plunged back into Winter, temporarily. And as W88 depicts above, even April can deliver some Wintry surprises.

As we enter the final few days of Meteorological Winter, I wanted to bring some final news of our "extended", alliterated family. Our family of Jewish Snowmen, Sammy, Mum and Dad (Solomon and Sharon) and Sister, Sally, have all arrived safely back in the U.K.

 

They flew home courtesy of:  but they've relocated to SNOWshill, Gloucestershire,

high in the picturesque, Cotswolds. Sammy has had to  remain in Freddie Freezer

due to the unseasonably high temperatures of the last few days and is hoping to be let out should we experience an Arctic sourced Northerly, in the next few weeks.

Meanwhile here in S.E.London, the "Mad House" continues, unabated.

Our non-alliterated Dreams bed, Lucia (that's her actual name), continues to cause havoc amongst the male furniture.

Dressed very flirtatiously in faux chocolate leather, the boys are all a quiver!!

Charlie, Chest of Drawers has collapsed - Fortunately my Brother-in-Law has managed to put him back together again (my D-I-Y skills, weren't up to much before my illness and certainly not now!!)

Wally Wardrobe hasn't been the same since he "clapped" eyes, on Lucia!!

No wonder they've got silly grins on their faces!!  

Teresa Television, sits astride Charlie (which he's happy about) and remains aghast at Lucia's, flirty antics.

Apart from being our bed, Lucia  is also Au Pair to our Soft Toy, family.

Billie the eldest (but conversely, the smallest) and like yours truly, a weather geek.

Rupert( aka Wobbly)and his 1 year old twin Sister, Darcey Bella. 

All seen posing in one of  my straw trilbies.

Regards,

Tom.  

[Badgers01]

Looks like we might be in for another amazing day ? Yet again a ground frost and an air temp currently of 0.3c I find this weather truly amazing if we can’t have cold this is the next best thing 4 seasons in one day. 

[James1979]

10 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Certainly a big change from late Wednesday onwards. Atlantic gearing up after a long absence. Active weather on way. Maybe the seasons will get back into proper sync at last. 

Very much doubt that, a lot has changed over the years- less snow, less storms and less rain at least imby. That as a weather fan is very boring indeed, not sure what there is to be excited about by endless dry and warmth (better than endless cloud unless it rains), i like variety in a climate. Whilst it's nice to enjoy a bit of warmth as something a bit different for feb, I still think it's a worrying trend, seems like every other month is warmer than 'normal' these days, sure the polar bears are loving it.

I'll be interested to see if we get more than 5mm of rain in the Cambridgeshire dust bowl with the big change at the  end of the week. 

[lassie23]

This could end badly for wildlife if cold appears. I've seen bees, wasps, butterflies, and birds are collecting building material for nests.

[Tom Quintavalle]

One last piece of Tomfoolery from me, to end Winter.

     Fabrizio and his Sister, Francesca                 

have returned from their Winter break in Italy and have been enjoying the unseasonable warmth, here in S.E.London.

Sorry to all heat-loving members but myself and Colette, sincerely hope we don't have to employ them as much as we did, last Summer. The heat and humidity really got too much, in S.E.London.

Reggie the Reindeer (evidently, he's had his name changed to Rudolf), much preferred Reggie,

is enjoying the fresher air, of Orpington. Uncle Svarlbard (the Polar Bear) - 

remains in Colette's wardrobe, awaiting a Spring clean. After which he'll be joining his Arctic friend Reggie, in Orpington. As the recipient, my Niece's daughter (with an Italian father), Uncle S. will undergo a name change too and will in future be called, Paolo.

If Lassie reads this, Colette is still very concerned about your "Pot Noodle diet"!! Her son has just bought her an early Mother's Day present:  Corinne the Slow Cooker. Corinne has already served up a wonderful chicken casserole and Sunday just gone, an amazing beef stew with delicious dumplings. Colette wants me to arrange the transportation of said dishes over to you, in N.W.London and you can "virtually" pay me back, at Cheltenham!!

I really hope Ian Currie has called the prospect of height rises over Greenland and a resultant Arctic outbreak in March, correctly.

I don't think Ian has done as bad, as some LRF's, that were put out there. He didn't see any HLB, during the Winter months (correct). Any Northerly (after a few "bites of the cherry"), would come off the back of a mid-Atlantic ridge (correct). Although, I think Ian thought there would be a little more wintriness than we've seen, this Winter.

I really appreciate Ian allowing his thoughts to be expressed on this Forum plus the reproduction of "snowy" photos, from his Kent and Surrey Weather Books. I really hope those Members who inquired about purchasing a copy of his Kent or Surrey Weather Books, took up Ian's, amazing offer.

So, really hope doesn't end up with  all over his face, after his March Forecast!! 

Being so accommodating with his thoughts and photos, deserves better.

I shan't be posting much on this thread, in the coming months, as Spring and Summer, don't "cut the mustard" for me weather wise!! So, breathe a "sigh of relief", as you'll all be spared those terrible, illustrated puns!!

I'm going to be very busy, "hosting" Fantasy Sports Competitions, around the corner on the Sports Zone. But I'll certainly be popping back, should that March Northerly turn up.

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited February 26, 2019 by TomSE12

[Wimbledon88]

15 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

This could end badly for wildlife if cold appears. I've seen bees, wasps, butterflies, and birds are collecting building material for nests.

Very true. Another problem will be the fruit trees that will start much earlier than normal and may get decimated by frosts later in the spring. 

[Matty88]

16 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

We don’t see this type of weather in late February very often - in fact, it’s very rare. 

This time last year, we were going into the freezer, which was followed by a cracking summer. Wonder if this gorgeous spell will be followed by a cack summer? 

Back in Prague today and a beautiful day here, too, though it ‘only’ reached 14C. Nice sunset right now 

The weather works in extremely strange ways at times - and my instinct tells me there's a lot more to it than meets the eyes of many on here and the pro's. 

If you recall, we had a relatively early(ish) start to spring last year once the beast from the east cleared in March, we then had an early shot of freezing weather in October/Early November (which had that set up arrived in Dec/Jan we would have been talking a major event). That seemed to burn off any chances downstream of further cold... and my instinct in November/December (and indeed I even posted about it on here) told that we may be in for an early shot of spring as the winter season began 'early' - indeed everything seemed to have shifted forward somewhat. It's probably just a co-incidence (or not?) - but it has happened and here we are with 18 Degree temps on 26th February 2019. 

So when you talk about this leading to a pretty rubbish summer (or our standard summer!)... it wouldn't surprise me if there may well be some truth in that down the line. That said, I won't complain if we end up with some terrific storms and deluges 

[craigore]

3 nights on the trot I've been sub zero.. 

Had to scrape the car each morning and with a frosty lawn to boot.

Not bad considering how lovely it is by lunchtime each day.

Actually really liking this weather..

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Matty88 said:

The weather works in extremely strange ways at times - and my instinct tells me there's a lot more to it than meets the eyes of many on here and the pro's. 

If you recall, we had a relatively early(ish) start to spring last year once the beast from the east cleared in March, we then had an early shot of freezing weather in October/Early November (which had that set up arrived in Dec/Jan we would have been talking a major event). That seemed to burn off any chances downstream of further cold... and my instinct in November/December (and indeed I even posted about it on here) told that we may be in for an early shot of spring as the winter season began 'early' - indeed everything seemed to have shifted forward somewhat. It's probably just a co-incidence (or not?) - but it has happened and here we are with 18 Degree temps on 26th February 2019. 

So when you talk about this leading to a pretty rubbish summer (or our standard summer!)... it wouldn't surprise me if there may well be some truth in that down the line. That said, I won't complain if we end up with some terrific storms and deluges 

Anyone that can decipher weather patterns and make accurate long term forecasts definitely gets my respect. Such a difficult process and so many variables, especially here in NW Europe.

The last time we had a warm spell like this in February was 1998, if memory serves me correctly. I think the following summer was pretty uneventful? I love sun and warmth in summer but am hopeful of more thundery activity than last year. Should see more of that in Prague. It’s the decline in UK summer thunderstorms that I’ve noticed in the last 15-20 years. Even in winter, thundery showers seem to have become rarer. 

Edited February 26, 2019 by stainesbloke

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

This could end badly for wildlife if cold appears. I've seen bees, wasps, butterflies, and birds are collecting building material for nests.

That's what I've BEEn thinking too...saw a few butterflies and bumbles yesterday but haven't seen any birds with nesting material, sod's law it will happen!

[kold weather]

Had 19.1c as a max yesterday. We are up about 1c today so far so there maybe a shot at 20c here today as a max, which would be quite outrageous really for Feb!

[laddie]

Not near a thermometer but it feels a lot warmer than 12 o'clock yesterday

 

Edited February 26, 2019 by laddie

[shotski]

2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

That's what I've BEEn thinking too...saw a few butterflies and bumbles yesterday but haven't seen any birds with nesting material, sod's law it will happen!

Frogs are currently spawning in the pond about 3-4 weeks early so any freeze up now could be bad for them. 

[John Stevens]

Weather station in my garden is saying 20.2°c at the moment in Holmbury St Mary....

[Katrine Basso]

I do not know if my garden thermometer is working but it says that the temperature is 15°C.

[abruzzi spur]

20.5c max so far in Reigate today. So we've not yet beaten yesterday's 20.6c

Record has gone again though 

 

 

Edited February 26, 2019 by abruzzi spur

[John Stevens]

Garden is now saying 20.9°....

[Badgers01]

anywhere reach 70f ..??

[Lauren]

Sun was almost burning me through the car window. Glorious and insane for this time of year.

[Badgers01]

21.2c at Kew so yes ! Amazing day !!

[SLEETY]

Wonder when 21 C or 70 f will be breached again when this warm spell is over  could be a long wait 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

14 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Wonder when 21 C or 70 f will be breached again when this warm spell is over  could be a long wait 

This is going to go down as a very historical event. I can’t see this happening again for some time. Reminds me very much of March 2012. But then we all know how quickly the tide turned later that month and into April. 

[sunnijim]

1 hour ago, Badgers01 said:

21.2c at Kew so yes ! Amazing day !!

Incredible,nudging 18c on the South coast too.

A temperature of over 21c in February!

Warmer than Ibiza today

[Captain Shortwave]

19c reaches here after a frosty start.

really quite incredible think a year ago we were seeing temperatures struggling to get close to freezing.

whilst I guess it isn’t great for collies in terms of the conditions, you have to respect that this spell has gone the full hog in terms that of warmth the lack of breeze and clear skies also help of course.

[abruzzi spur]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

 

whilst I guess it isn’t great for collies in terms of the conditions

Our Spaniel has been loving it