SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[throwoff]

Just now, Eastnorthwest said:

One of the worst for model performance  yes,as for weather winter doesn't end till middle of march if we get the right setups

The models always struggle with these marginal type setups. They are nearly always bang on for us when the Easterly picks up as it is a clearer thing to look at.

[sunnijim]

6 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Once that warm front moved in, dew points rose, and the rain started

I guess we must have been lucky here, no rain ,just a climb to +3c for a couple of hours between 0200 and 0400 before we fell to +1c again,so a thaw and then a very slow thaw.

[snowrye]

Ive had 2 snow events, but it just doesn't last, there's always some bloody warm front, change of wind direction etc etc

[alexisj9]

13 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Heavy sleet & then snow & then back to heavy sleet & so on 

What we had here the last two snow spells before this one.

[weathertoski]

Raining here

[Eastnorthwest]

Just now, sunnijim said:

I guess we must have been lucky here, no rain ,just a climb to +3c for a couple of hours between 0200 and 0400 before we fell to +1c again,so a thaw and then a very slow thaw.

Very rare for to get snow s,Jim, I missed out last night ,hopefully might get a bit tonight with the NE setting in

[weathertoski]

And now sleet!

 

[snowrye]

1 minute ago, sunnijim said:

I guess we must have been lucky here, no rain ,just a climb to +3c for a couple of hours between 0200 and 0400 before we fell to +1c again,so a thaw and then a very slow thaw.

Im on the sussex kent border, 70m asl, it was snowing hard till around 1 am, then the dew points lifted above freezing and the rain started, around 4.30am it was heavy and its been raining since then more or less, just be nice to get a decent amount of snow that sticks around for a bit, instead of thawing away pretty quick, give people a chance to enjoy it, I need a north easterly, and a streamer set up, anyone help

[rubble79]

Reminds me very much of the 90’s (after 91’s great spell) where there was always so much promise but constantly failed to really deliver in my area. Just having the media and TV forecasts to rely on made it so much more frustrating - I used to sit on teletext waiting for the pixilated weather map to update

As others have said, we should probably change our thoughts of March as it has proven that in the right set up, it can deliver decent cold and snow. I also think that at some point the models will flip to our favour and surprise us by showing milder to sudden cold. One day

Am I the only one who never looks at the radar during snow? It’s like looking at spoilers, I’m much happier to look out the window and see what turns up than get frustrated seeing heavy snow missing me 

(rain again here)

Edited February 1, 2019 by rubble79

[sunnijim]

5 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

Very rare for to get snow s,Jim, I missed out last night ,hopefully might get a bit tonight with the NE setting in

Certainly from last night's synoptic set up.I had little faith in any sort of snow event for the Sussex coast given what was on offer.A very pleasant surprise,and still good to be surprised by our climate!

Maybe something for us later as you say given the pivot and a change in wind direction later....more surprises?

[sunnijim]

6 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Im on the sussex kent border, 70m asl, it was snowing hard till around 1 am, then the dew points lifted above freezing and the rain started, around 4.30am it was heavy and its been raining since then more or less, just be nice to get a decent amount of snow that sticks around for a bit, instead of thawing away pretty quick, give people a chance to enjoy it, I need a north easterly, and a streamer set up, anyone help

I used to live near Rye ( fairlight) so I know very well what produces the goods over that way! ( just spoke to mum and she says all the snow has gone)

Here the kids are still sledging on the slopes.

Getting used to what works snow wise near Brighton!

[claret047]

Good  Morning fellow SE/EA weather folk.

I am too chicken to post this on the hunt for cold thread in case I am accused of posting it in the wrong thread.

I do wonder with all these super duper computers at weather companies disposal these days if the information gathered and analysed is too complex and it misses the wood for the trees so to speak. By taking too much into account it increases the area of uncertainty. To use an analogy if anyone looks at the risk down to the minuscule they would do nothing but stay in bed all day. Even then they may feel they are at risk from an aircraft plummeting through their roof. What do others think, or have I got it all wrong?

Kind Regards

Dave

[SenlacJack]

16 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

East Sussex isn’t in the eastern part of the region. It’s bounded by land to the north, east and west.

Did you read the original post Sunnijim was replying to ?

[nick sussex]

Another difference of opinion on the 06 hrs runs .

The GFS and Hirlam turn the rain back to snow and this clears south . The ICON doesn’t want to know.

[danm]

Is that band coming up through London snow/rain/sleet?

[username home]

 

1 minute ago, danm said:

Is that band coming up through London snow/rain/sleet?

all of the above i think

[Mark Bayley]

Just now, danm said:

Is that band coming up through London snow/rain/sleet?

Is drizzle here with a dewpoint of 1c, although suspect its wet snow under the heavier busts (further north and west you are the better)

[dubmuffin]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

Is that band coming up through London snow/rain/sleet?

Yes

[Hotspur62]

18 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Not strictly true, Brighton on the East Sussex coast had 3 inches from this event.

My apologies and i am very happy for you that you got snow.I should have been a bit more specific as i did see Brighton area got a good dollop of snow last night.I just wish that this part of England was more mountainous with everywhere being at least 300m asl and then we wouldnt have these problems with margainality lol!!

[Eastnorthwest]

Perfect snow setups for the southern/ southeastern Britain are rare which isn't helped by unreliable  cold setups shown on the models

Yes it's showing less cold early next week but believe what the models are showing beyond 5 days at your frustration ,I for years have found  probably 1 out of 40 cold spell model set ups beyond 7 days come into fruition ,most of the time they move further East by 500 miles if they stay on the chart runs that's because the atmosphere is constantly changing the outlook situation which the models will ware ly pinpoint 

[snowbob]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

Is that band coming up through London snow/rain/sleet?

Wife says snowing at home biggin hill

 

[Uxbridge90]

8 minutes ago, danm said:

Is that band coming up through London snow/rain/sleet?

Seems to be snow to the West and Sleet to the East, cut off seems to be just east of Brixton 

Snowing here in West London

Edited February 1, 2019 by Uxbridge90

[fulham snow]

On 27/01/2019 at 17:32, Badgers01 said:

Assuming it all falls as snow and all sticks - do people not feel it will at the very least start as rain and take a while to settle ..?

 

[WhiteFox]

11 minutes ago, rubble79 said:

Reminds me very much of the 90’s (after 91’s great spell) where there was always so much promise but constantly failed to really deliver in my area. Just having the media and TV forecasts to rely on made it so much more frustrating - I used to sit on teletext waiting for the pixilated weather map to update

As others have said, we should probably change our thoughts of March as it has proven that in the right set up, it can deliver decent cold and snow. I also think that at some point the models will flip to our favour and surprise us by showing milder to sudden cold. One day

Am I the only one who never looks at the radar during snow? It’s like looking at spoilers, I’m much happier to look out the window and see what turns up than get frustrated seeing heavy snow missing me 

(rain again here)

Reminds me a lot of 1993/4. We had quite a few snow events here in Reading but very little settled. Better luck this time though!

The narrow band near Reading is graupel/light snow. Now 1.1 dp 0 occasional light frozen PPN

Picture of the dog saying hello to the snowman just before he took his nose!

Measured about 8cm in part of the garden that is less sheltered. Definitely some compaction going on due to slight thaw so reckon we may have had about 19cm all told.

 

[fulham snow]

Tsing in Epdom,bye snow