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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


Blessed Weather

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Thanks Reefseeker, I can certainly be wrong though, I'm experienced (plus a little emotional at times as Nick said!) but not necessarily an expert!

Radar showing that dry slot quite nicely now that quite a few of the highest resolution models have, north of the highest precipitation. If your north of the heaviest stuff, that has your name on it. Not to say there will be no snow, but not nearly as much as to your direct south. However becoming increasingly clear on the 06z models that there is a high chance that a second band will come in around midnight-2am formed of heavy showers clumping together and this moves into the London area as well.

HIRLAM was outstanding last year...however it has just done a literal 180 flip form 1cms of snow for most, to a fairly widespread 5-10cms! So not sure how high confidence in it can be without another run!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

At this stage I only ever follow 1 model

& its the HIRLAM

Same and its certainly seat of our pants time for those closer to London. I'm expecting the lower amounts here in North Kent. Think you'll do better based on latest charts. It's gonna be fun

Edited by CanadianCoops
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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

Everytime I hear the term HIRLAM Update I'm like...

Harlem Globtrotters

 

hzN999zBXWs1.gif

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, Due South said:

Latest Met Office. Not offering to much for kent Showers fragmenting. #Gutted

Please don’t tell me you’re using one of those Met Office apps.

They’re a waste of space and have led to a lot of drama in here !

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
12 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Latest from my man at Network Rail.

ALL planned work for this evening canceled. They are quite worried.

But how will the system cope without 10 blokes staring at a bit of track for a few hours?

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers and cold snowy winters
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
17 minutes ago, Due South said:

Latest Met Office. Not offering to much for kent Showers fragmenting. #Gutted

Not looking too bad according to the MetO for our location in West Kent - four hours of heavy snow, eight hours of non-heavy snow..... this isn't Minnesota so I would be more than happy with that!

 

Edited by kate1
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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft

Apologies if anyone's mentioned this further back as havent read all messasges but 'London and the SE' is showing in the amber warning - but it isnt on the map?

image.thumb.png.2266d2e51c14a93fc4495bef81cc28e7.png

Edited by CanadianCoops
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Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy winters
  • Location: Kent
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Please don’t tell me you’re using one of those Met Office apps.

They’re a waste of space and have led to a lot of drama in here !

No there latest online video forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
8 minutes ago, throwoff said:

They do worry a lot, but they don't as a rule cancel planned work unless they are confident. 

The fact he messaged me to tell me says a lot, this is out of the ordinary.

I'd believe that but after all the 'wrong type of rain' 'wrong type of snow' etc crap we've become accustomed to I/most have little faith in them!

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Posted
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme!
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL
1 minute ago, CanadianCoops said:

Apologies if anyone's mentioned this further back as havent read all messasges but the SE is showing in the amber warning - but it isnt on the map?

image.thumb.png.2266d2e51c14a93fc4495bef81cc28e7.png

I made that mistake 

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Thanks Reefseeker, I can certainly be wrong though, I'm experienced (plus a little emotional at times as Nick said!) but not necessarily an expert!

Radar showing that dry slot quite nicely now that quite a few of the highest resolution models have, north of the highest precipitation. If your north of the heaviest stuff, that has your name on it. Not to say there will be no snow, but not nearly as much as to your direct south. However becoming increasingly clear on the 06z models that there is a high chance that a second band will come in around midnight-2am formed of heavy showers clumping together and this moves into the London area as well.

HIRLAM was outstanding last year...however it has just done a literal 180 flip form 1cms of snow for most, to a fairly widespread 5-10cms! So not sure how high confidence in it can be without another run!

[Bold text = my emphasis, not that of the OP, Kold Weather] 

Yes, that is interesting. The Office want to bring in a poky shower streamer into the London area in the dead of night that is separate from the main front. This can be clearly seen on their latest video forecast. 

That could bring more snow than the front itself for north London etc. 

You can see the video on their home page:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Bumping me forecast from yesterday

335E388E-D646-4341-9930-84B3D49CD9CA.thumb.jpeg.02770630ab80c8d06852817ae26de053.jpeg

All shoring up nicely - but may have jumped the gun a little with EA (and Peterborough)

What do the colours mean on that chart? No key! 

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
7 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

But how will the system cope without 10 blokes staring at a bit of track for a few hours?

Using CCTV they can now stare at the track remotely

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The other GOOD thing is the early demise of the front looks a little overdone now from the 00z suite, most of the 06z suite keep the front at least moderately active enough so we don't lose all thr snow, though in such a set-up amounts will be varied and some will get lucky, others not so much.

06z ECM broadly looks like Euro4 at 06z (as you'd expect) with 2-3 inches to the south of the M4 (though there is once again a area with less, looks like Surrey somewhere but hard to tell at the resolution, but the drier zone, only about an inch-1.5), maybe an inch upto the northern extent of the M25, then very little north of that (maybe a dusting?)

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
2 minutes ago, Mark said:

I made that mistake 

Ah looks like Hampshire comes under London and the SE - nearly had a heart attack lol

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
23 hours ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Love it when we play snow maps    , as things stand this would be my take on tomorrows situation.

 

mhvknc.png

 

 

I'll bump mine from yesterday also then for our Region 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

As per the ASL-scale coming into play.

140/150 scale looks very decent as per higher accumulation..

As 4 any1 writting off kents chances are madness..i expect kent/parts essex 2 come into the force firing line..as the system takes a pivot..and we get an undertuck of nor-easterlys...

All looks well...

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

updated Hirlam depths

Just a nudge North please

 

A1404147-0E9F-4809-83DD-B4CFA46F1D9C.png

Great. Southend snowshield at 110%

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:

@nick sussex do you think my location and Crowborough could possibly pass the magic 10cm mark 

Good location to be in but amounts wise I’m not making predictions !

You know in here what that leads to . I’d be less popular than a bikini salesman in Jeddah if it didn’t work out !

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