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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


Blessed Weather

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
17 minutes ago, BeazleyBlizzard said:

Have had confirmation of snow in Petersfield and Horley at the moment.  Showers popping up.  Weren't as much fog as first thought,  is that a good thing or a bad thing with regards to the temps?

I promise you it’s not snowing in Horley! 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The Euro 4 still looks good for the se more M4 southwards . Some large totals over the Souty Downs .

 

Looks decent, shows the front holding fairly steady...good update. I'm just inside the higher precip band to the south, but that's way too close for comfort and knowing my ,luck it will hug just to the south, decay as it goes over me and then strengthen to my north....meaning I'll end up in the death spot so to speak with the least snow ;) ( and that's not me  being negative, that's what several models now show).

Still ARPEGE has the best grip thus far on where the features are all developing in relation to the front.

I'm now watching for a second LP to perhaps start to form within the higher precipitation area. This will be the main kicker and will determine whether we get a sheared joke of a system or something with more clout coming in.

 

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme!
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL

We don't have an amber warning yet, but the Met homepage seems to think we do...

Are they pre-empting, or is it a mistake? 

Capture2.PNG

Edited by Mark
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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Dry air intrusion into back of frontal zone creating quite a bit of instability with SST help, may also help cyclogenesis and bump up snowfall along front

F3F6C23C-D3E9-4FC0-A8AE-E6B9138796C0.thumb.jpeg.4f2d678b0ba519eb6487cc62054a136b.jpeg6E80D239-CBEF-4101-A390-EB5FA3AE006A.thumb.png.ab9156444c7084cfee258cede6da5d73.png

Thought it might. Sea is quite warm still.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
1 minute ago, Mark said:

We don't have an amber warning yet, but the Met homepage seems to think we do...

Are they pre-empting, or is it a mistake? 

Capture2.PNG

It covers a very small area but will lump it together with the who region 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, kold weather said:

Looks decent, shows the front holding fairly steady...good update. I'm just inside the higher precip band to the south, but that's way too close for comfort and knowing my ,luck it will hug just to the south, decay as it goes over me and then strengthen to my north....meaning I'll end up in the death spot so to speak with the least snow  

Still ARPEGE has the best grip thus far on where the features are all developing in relation to the front.

I'm now watching for a second LP to perhaps start to form within the higher precipitation area. This will be the main kicker and will determine whether we get a sheared joke of a system or something with more clout coming in.

 

Take a chill pill !  

You’re going to give yourself an ulcer before the days out ! Unfortunately I have to go out soon for a few hours so will miss your  very entertaining emotional rollercoaster posts !

Would you believe it I’m heading off to the Asian supermarket near Pau !  I love French food but you can’t beat a good curry !

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
1 minute ago, Mark Liffen said:

Can anyone explain why the met have updated the snow warnings and left East Anglia up because according to the models it's not reaching that far ?

Possible shower activity off the North Sea, I believe.

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Posted
  • Location: Clacton-On-Sea,Essex...18m asl
  • Location: Clacton-On-Sea,Essex...18m asl

Not looking good here in Clacton on sea for any snow if front gets this far ,temp2.5. dew 1c with a south east breeze bringing less cold air off north sea

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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
9 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning All,

Here is a Wintry slideshow for all Surrey members to enjoy, hopefully other members too. These photos have been reproduced with the very kind permission of Ian Currie.

1)image.thumb.png.5969d7c2972887a061bad027c0a29fe8.png 2) image.thumb.png.d0ca1065c8c138cd4b80f9246e288bd1.png 3) image.thumb.png.c71fc3ce63f0619ad57fc925375fc756.png

4) image.thumb.png.7a0f85302eb1c0d7703207babb469864.png 5) image.thumb.png.1c444a025a9f190a64e0a90275c7e531.png 

6) image.thumb.png.0eddda6e701fa1f61315ab81583105b4.png 7) image.thumb.png.93eb54d0fce2a50c7377cc19a210ae30.png

8) image.thumb.png.6d4aac7451ea8934f3a3b9e49aa7acd5.png 9) image.thumb.png.98496c8658d5466473e6177dbdb2981e.png

10) image.thumb.png.d0840700124b361f7dfec6ac275aad04.png 11) image.thumb.png.dd8164a12b2fb5666f19e043a13c6064.png

12) image.thumb.png.d23feba097c2afde44ef31d750392acb.png 13) image.thumb.png.a4a231f383a4792e2f8c72fd1023dc07.png 14) image.thumb.png.a6ab1d3b5daee268c1b8e2b8e293b2c6.png

15) image.thumb.png.c81d3316680b0b9644a994742d5d99aa.png 16) image.thumb.png.f2ae8d198d455276482b805be8f4e6f6.png

17) image.thumb.png.79963eea2fcf2f7e78b93afe30a0cf63.png  18) image.thumb.png.1a987d99af76247f24a191278d9fcfb8.png

19) image.thumb.png.ed93c2f0a84d3a8278ad8c86340a83b1.png 20) image.thumb.png.c9c92f053ba3f00aab828ba88af74a9e.png

1) A25 Nutfield to Bletchingly, after Boxing Day blizzard, 1927.

2) Claremont Road, Surbiton.1906.

3) The frozen Thames, at Kingston Bridge, Feb.1895.

4) Troops clear deep snow in Lesbourne Road, Reigate,Feb.1915.

5) Residents standing next to 15 foot drifts at Tatsfield, near Biggin Hill (Surrey/Kent border) Dec.1927.

6) Two schoolboys dwarfed by 15 foot drifts at Tilburstow Hill, Godstone. Dec.1927.

7) Car stuck in drift, Farnham Road, Guildford.28th Dec.1927.

8) Council workers clear deep snow, Redhill High Street. Winter 1947.

9) 471 bus and milk van stuck in deep drifts, between Biggin Hill and Tatsfield. Winter 1947,

10) Bus jackknifed in deep snow at Longdown, Hindhead. Not sure of year?

11) Start of the deep freeze Winter.Dec.1962/63. Commonfield Road, Banstead.

12) Bulldozer cuts it's way through deep drifts, between Upper Warlingham and Chelsham. Jan.1963.

13) Gigantic icicles on a house, at Lower Kingswood. Jan. 1963.

14) Snow swept into deep piles, outside store in Horley. Jan.1963.

15) Frozen Thames at Shepperton. Jan.1963.

16) A243 at Hook. Dec.1978.

17) Outside Ian Currie's house, Rickman Hill, Cousdon. Jan.1987.

18) Ian Currie outside the school in Caterham, where he was a Geography Master.

19) A poor soul waiting for a bus, on Reigate Hill. 15th Jan.1987.

20) Finally, back to Jan.1987 and a policeman on point duty at East Clandon. 

I hope the glare on some of the pictures, hasn't spoilt your enjoyment of them.

These photos have been reproduced with the very kind permission of Ian Currie.

Ian co-wrote the Surrey County Weather Book with Mark Davison and co-wrote the Kent County Weather Book with Bob Ogley and Mark Davison.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Great photos Tom.

87 still “the daddy” as far as I’m concerned.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
2 minutes ago, Mark said:

We don't have an amber warning yet, but the Met homepage seems to think we do...

Are they pre-empting, or is it a mistake? 

Capture2.PNG

You need to look at the map or read previous posts and you’ll find it’s just New Forest in far SW corner of their London and SE region under Amber for now.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Dry air intrusion into back of frontal zone creating quite a bit of instability with SST help, may also help cyclogenesis and bump up snowfall along front

F3F6C23C-D3E9-4FC0-A8AE-E6B9138796C0.thumb.jpeg.4f2d678b0ba519eb6487cc62054a136b.jpeg6E80D239-CBEF-4101-A390-EB5FA3AE006A.thumb.png.ab9156444c7084cfee258cede6da5d73.png

Yeah the models are all quite keen on a LP forming in the area of higher precipitation. That is the key area to watch and the area I'm watching like a hawk for any LP development. The first one still getting a stronger return on the radar, and you can even see the dry slot it develops starting to get going.

Edit - actually just hints of that happening now on the backedge of the deep convection.

Nick - have a good time, you can't beat a good curry as you say, I've not had one for a while and that's put me well in the mood!!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
3 minutes ago, Mark said:

We don't have an amber warning yet, but the Met homepage seems to think we do...

Are they pre-empting, or is it a mistake? 

Capture2.PNG

Seems just a bit of Hampshire sneaks in

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Dry air intrusion into back of frontal zone creating quite a bit of instability with SST help, may also help cyclogenesis and bump up snowfall along front

F3F6C23C-D3E9-4FC0-A8AE-E6B9138796C0.thumb.jpeg.4f2d678b0ba519eb6487cc62054a136b.jpeg6E80D239-CBEF-4101-A390-EB5FA3AE006A.thumb.png.ab9156444c7084cfee258cede6da5d73.png

Thought it might. Sea is quite warm still.

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Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)

Nick F. When is the peak for daytime heating please, if there is such a thing,

 

Thanks

Edited by dallas
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Posted
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme!
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL
1 minute ago, Nick F said:

You need to look at the map or read previous posts and you’ll find it’s just New Forest in far SW corner of their London and SE region under Amber for now.

Yeah, I clicked on the London and SE link and it is indeed the New Forest that giving false hope 

Nice to bring the whole of the SE into the warning for the sake of a few dozen square miles! 

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Crikey Darren you really need to chill mate What will be will be just watch the radar real time later - Don't need you in Hospital later when the snow is falling all around you

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, Paul Sherman said:

Crikey Darren you really need to chill mate What will be will be just watch the radar real time later - Don't need you in Hospital later when the snow is falling all around you

Ha your so right mate, fine I'll ease a little, don't want to be peaking too early after all, that's no good for anyone....ummmm....

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

aromehd-45-36-0.png?31-12

I'll take that - a couple of cm's of snow (i think its overdoing the totals). Really a case of radar watching now. 

Edited by Mark Bayley
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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

hirlamuk-1-17-0.png?31-10hirlamuk-1-18-0.png?31-10hirlamuk-1-19-0.png?31-10hirlamuk-1-20-0.png?31-10hirlamuk-1-21-0.png?31-10

If the HIRLAM is to be believed you could do very well later on overnight and this model did well last winter so worth to keep an eye on!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

aromehd-25-35-0.png?31-12

I'll take that - a couple of cm's of snow. Really a case of radar watching now. 

Pretty much all of that comes from the showers afterwards, just to show how prolific the showers are on this run!

PS- HIRLAM is interesting in that it beings through a 2nd band, looks very different from other models, but that maybe the area of showers the other models are bringing up as well.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Crikey Darren you really need to chill mate What will be will be just watch the radar real time later - Don't need you in Hospital later when the snow is falling all around you

I'll give him his dues he's bloody good, excellent to have you in here KW, but it might be an idea to work out where your nearest defib is.

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
19 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Currently 0.9c and 85% humidity, thanks!

I had to round up the temp to 1oC but it's showing as -2

 

I'll take the bottom chart - gives my area an extra 1cm

I do think my area is on the northern edge of the precipitation (Bexleyheath) so could be squeaky bum time later!

Yeah I'm thinking the same being roughly inline with you....def be a minute by minute thing looking at the radar lol

Edited by CanadianCoops
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