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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


Blessed Weather

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Just seen a video  in America of ppl throwing boiling water and blowing bubbles Turing to ice ! 

What a lovely frosty morning we have here and fingers crossed a lot of potential for some snowflakes ... however I am a little nervous as the ice is thick on the roads and I have plucked up the courage to start driving and my first lesson is in a hour ! 

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Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

Skynews weather which I dont normally watch had the front stalling over london 

Women weather girl said " one to watch for london 5cm widely

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I can see signs on the radar of a wave/LP forming right on the back edge of the frontal system to the west of Cornwall.

Also hints the frontal band is already starting to shear off somewhat, which will lead to that dry slot forming that I mentioned in a previous post.

Hate to say this, but ARPEGE has the formation of the low PERFECT on its 06z run....

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme!
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL

They've put yesterday's mid-morning forecast on the Met website, instead of today's. Almost had a heart attack when she did the summary at the beginning!

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
19 minutes ago, Hammer said:

For METO to successively reduce northern extent is reactive and understood, but it is the scale of reduction from original warning which confirms they didn't have a great handle on this and reminds us all to predict further than 3 days at most on our small scale is still very difficult

Not a dig at METO, I am keen to see what models handle things well. Been impressed with ICON.

We shall see what transpires.

You're right. But they will almost certainly have a matrix of probability which defines when and where warnings should be placed. Clearly the levels of uncertainty were high as we saw across all runs over the past few days, so I suspect the ensemble scatter was giving enough indication for possible snow further north for the yellow warning to be activated further north. I'm sure that ICON ensembles would also have had some runs further north too.

But, yes, if it transpires as it currently looks then the ICON operational run fared better than the UKMO operational in terms of PPN. We don't know what mogreps was showing though, or the ensembles for that model so again there must have been a number of ensemble runs showing PPN further north.

I'm guessing the scatter must have been immense judging by what we were able to see on publicly available models!

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Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

I can see signs on the radar of a wave/LP forming right on the back edge of the frontal system to the west of Cornwall.

Also hints the frontal band is already starting to shear off somewhat, which will lead to that dry slot forming that I mentioned in a previous post.

Good news

bad news 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye...It seems that Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire are all earmarked for a BSA, Big Sod All!

Certainly nothing from the front as it fizzles out long before it reaches here. However the latest MetO warning map appears to show that they expect snow shower activity all the way down the east coast from Scotland to Norfolk.

Fog is lingering here and it's still sub-zero.

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

Rain shower nr the coast,snow a couple of miles inland

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, steveinsussex said:

Good news

bad news 

ICON does NOT have the low in the right place as to where it is forming on radar (being a tropical nut, I'm pretty good at spotting developing circulations on radar!).

This suggests ARPEGE sadly has a better grip than ICON does on their 06z...and ARPEGE was much less snowy for our region.

Still a long way to go though, things can and often do change!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Looking like we may get naff all here in Cambridge as the front dies a death before getting here. Shame really, a couple of days ago it looked like 1-3cms....which would have sufficed! Never mind, hope everyone else further south gets a pasting....and plenty of snow too! 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I can see signs on the radar of a wave/LP forming right on the back edge of the frontal system to the west of Cornwall.

Also hints the frontal band is already starting to shear off somewhat, which will lead to that dry slot forming that I mentioned in a previous post.

Hate to say this, but ARPEGE has the formation of the low PERFECT on its 06z run....

The Euro 4 still looks good for the se more M4 southwards . Some large totals over the South Downs .

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Certainly nothing from the front as it fizzles out long before it reaches here. However the latest MetO warning map appears to show that they expect snow shower activity all the way down the east coast from Scotland to Norfolk.

Fog is lingering here and it's still sub-zero.

Same here, Yarmy: lovely morning...Hope for the North Sea Snow Machine to get its act together...?

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Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

Forget maps and charts 

Its now radar watching time for the front to enter our location with 

Some areas having pepped up ppn  as it movew nearer to your area 

The front looks superb atm 

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

Temperature up to 0.9 here own with a dewpoint of -1. Pressure falling as system approaches, now down to 989.1.

High cloud building in from west turning sunshine hazy 

Edited by WhiteFox
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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Just now, Jackski4 said:

Question is... How's Kent/Essex looking ?

Cold and Sunny at present ...

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Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ICON does NOT have the low in the right place as to where it is forming on radar (being a tropical nut, I'm pretty good at spotting developing circulations on radar!).

This suggests ARPEGE sadly has a better grip than ICON does on their 06z...and ARPEGE was much less snowy for our region.

Still a long way to go though, things can and often do change!

I think I’m gonna log off

 

too much bad news

#Snexit

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
1 minute ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Cold and Sunny at present ...

Very cold very sunny.... what's your opinion on later?

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Dry air intrusion into back of frontal zone creating quite a bit of instability with SST help, may also help cyclogenesis and bump up snowfall along front

F3F6C23C-D3E9-4FC0-A8AE-E6B9138796C0.thumb.jpeg.4f2d678b0ba519eb6487cc62054a136b.jpeg6E80D239-CBEF-4101-A390-EB5FA3AE006A.thumb.png.ab9156444c7084cfee258cede6da5d73.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

I think I’m gonna log off

 

too much bad news

#Snexit

OMG that’s so funny . Snexit!

Why are you logging off it still looks good for your area .

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
22 minutes ago, kold weather said:

More importantly its coming through quicker than the ARPEGE/AROME suggested.

By the way, I'm in the 'screw' zone on the UKMO website radar estimate. The front kicks up a gear near London, but dies to my south. I'm basically in between with very light snow throughout. Too far north for the stronger front edge, to far south for it when it gets re-energised (AROME does show that re-energising to the north near London by the way). Thats pretty typical how things usually work out for me ;) 

Where are you Kold (can’t see on my phone)?

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Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
1 hour ago, CanadianCoops said:

Whats your temp and humidity? I'll let you know

Currently 0.9c and 85% humidity, thanks!

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