SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Mark]

Met Yellow warning has been updated

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

It’s been wrong down here even as the event has unfolded ! I can’t see the front being that weak.

I definitely can't see it being that weak either Nick, just passing on the model information, at this stage it doesn't really mean a huge amount, but can't ignore it.

Anyway in better news, the front looks a touch ahead of schedule in terms of its placement, which is good, we need it come in as fast as possible to maintain strength.

 

[SMU]

Im just looking around the brest area- 

PPN building strongly...

[Mark]

SW get the first Amber warning

[Kent Blizzard]

Here it goes

Updated:

 

10:21 on Thu 31 Jan 2019 GMT

Reason for update

Warning updated to reduce the northern extent of where disruptive snow is expected and to also bring the end time forward

Further details

Areas of snow are expected Thursday onwards into early Friday. Snow will slowly fade away during Friday. Close to the south coast of England some rain is also expected. Any single period of snow is not expected to last more than 6 to 9 hours but some snow accumulations are likely with 1-3 cm likely in places within the warning area and the potential for 5-10 cm, perhaps particularly over Wales and southwest England. Snow amounts will vary markedly across England and Wales with many places seeing very little accumulating snow, more so in East Anglia and the Midlands. Even where snow does not fall icy stretches are still to be expected.

Meto Warnings

[matty40s]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Im just looking around the brest area- 

PPN building strongly...

You can get pads for that Steve.

[jayney69]

25 minutes ago, SnoFlakeEar said:

Is North Kent / Swale area due to get anything or am i correct in saying we are perhaps to far north and east?

I’m Swale too (Newington). If both the BBC and Met Offuce apps are to be believed we have hours and hours of snow tonight (from about 6pm). Unfortunately it turns to rain at about 5am

[Easily sled]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Really don’t know why some are fretting so much over one model run, let’s see how it plays out then we can judge which model was right in the end, though generally if you are south of the Thames and M4 west of London then best chance of seeing most snow IMO.

So Heathrow area 'looking good'?  

[Shutterbug Netty]

Very odd thing happening in my back garden right now, there are what looks like tiny little ice particles falling from a totally clear sky, it looks like someone is throwing around silver glitter!!!

Anyway, I was up super early this morning (was about -6 when I left home) and had a wonderful winter walk around our local footpaths, fabulous morning   Did try to add a picture but the file size is too large  

Good luck to everyone for snow later, sadly I don't think it will make it as far as me.  Never mind, still plenty of winter left  

 

[Lampostwatcher]

Great updated warning 

Midlands and east anglia may seen very little snow accumulating 

But 1-3cms widely 

We all know this is a radar watch from now on 

5-10 cm mentiined as well 

But guessing probably wales

And sw

Edited January 31, 2019 by Lampostwatcher

[kold weather]

AROME also identical to the ARPEGE (though I suspect they are from the same family of models, so will look similar?)

That area of heavier snow in the western channel is the area most models just keep offshore on this mornings run. It is possible it sneaks onshore for coastal areas though.

We need the front to shear away to the east as late as possible, I'll be watching the radar like a hawk for signs of that.

Edited January 31, 2019 by kold weather

[Matty88]

So, with all the 06z updates in - and with meto and BBC now updating their forecasts, I'm bracing myself here in Cambridgeshire for missing out on the snow this evening/tonight, which is disappointing but that's weather!

You never know and I hope it corrects itself a tad further North! In these scenarios, more often than not, it usually stays South. 

[bluearmy]

@kold weather - need an update on the ec 06z run to see if it repeats that circulation moving me from the IOW 

Ec op (and the other global models) should really left behind now by the high res modelling 

[Hammer]

14 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

We have no idea what ensembles were showing on met office or ICON so it's difficult to know really.

For METO to successively reduce northern extent is reactive and understood, but it is the scale of reduction from original warning which confirms they didn't have a great handle on this and reminds us all to predict further than 3 days at most on our small scale is still very difficult

Not a dig at METO, I am keen to see what models handle things well. Been impressed with ICON.

We shall see what transpires.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

@kold weather - need an update on the ec 06z run to see if it repeats that circulation moving me from the IOW 

Ec op (and the other global models) should really left behind now by the high res modelling  

Won't be through till 12pm I'm afraid, Euro4 will be out before then.

High resolution models do vary this morning, some are frankly disastrous, others are ok. Still a chance of good shower activity after the front clears through for some southern counties, though obviously that's uncertain. I'm not sure I'd be banking too much on this event right now, though I have to say radar looks ok for the moment.

 

[Kent Blizzard]

Let's hope this doesn't fade to pretty much nothing as it get's towards the London area

[Chris101]

Latest meto warnings noticing the North Sea having a little wake up post low.

[SnowBlake]

Not a speck of rain or flake of snow from the little something over Hastings on the radars right now.

Cloud is right above now and can see clearer/brighter skies out to sea.

Just got a hunch I'm going to be unlucky later being right on the seafront so may go for a wander inland tomorrow to get my fix! 

[john mac]

Just out of interest what sort of air pressure can we expect in our region this evening? 

[throwoff]

That new Amber warning is a truly bizarre shape! Normally they are relatively smooth edged. 

I am starting to think this could be a bit better than we are expecting...

[throwoff]

Just noticed METO have moved forward to 6pm for Medway now, and the rain symbols have all disappeared..

[john mac]

Just now, throwoff said:

That new Amber warning is a truly bizarre shape! Normally they are relatively smooth edged. 

I am starting to think this could be a bit better than we are expecting...

Can someone post up the warning map? 

[throwoff]

Latest warning maps

[birdman]

Hmmmm? Mistake?!

 

[alexisj9]

Temp down to -4.5 this morning, however already up to 3.1 with positive dp of 1 here. SSW draw, which is not helping. Can see a repeat of Tuesday unless something changes. SSE or se would be a better direction, but will have to start a few hours before the ppn, to get the dp down.