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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
2 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Unable to change my work pattern,

My route from 2100 tonight takes me out of SE London,around the M25,down the M23 to Brighton!

Could be interesting in a Vauxhall Corsa.

With the time you're travelling, the awareness of the gritters and the fact the snow shouldn't be too heavy I think you'll be OK

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
32 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

As some accused me of posting the gfs precip rates 'as selected data'..

The same can maybe - be said on the otherside of the coin...via ICON?!

Nae much point in posting random ones, TI...Just carry on posting mate!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

We really going on a school trip to The Imperial War Museum in London  today. We are driving past some very snowy and frosty fields atm, must be around 3cm if lying snow...? Lovely to see!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Delete

Edited by LightningLover
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)

Cold in Reigate when I left home just before 7am, -5.4c.  Lots of hoar frost as I got closer to my office near Harefield.  Stunning day.

Could be in a good spot for snow later although timing is not great as am driving to the North Norfolk coast on Friday for a couple of nights away, where I suspect it will be moderately bracing.  

Still lying snow on Reigate Hill this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
8 minutes ago, throwoff said:

A Vauxhall Corsa is the carriage of the masses. You will be fine.

My first proper car was a T reg  Corsa. It was a great little run around car for snow chasing!

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
45 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Belfast has snow currently, that would be slightly further North than was expected and earlier...

It really will be mostly rain here then.

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
15 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

With the time you're travelling, the awareness of the gritters and the fact the snow shouldn't be too heavy I think you'll be OK

Do hope so! Uncanny how during the March 'Beast from the East' the same scenario played out at the same time on a Thursday!Again a knife edge 'will it won't it' situation as snow creeps in from the West.Radar watching and nail biting on the one day in the week I work late.

It was a premier inn rather than the risk back in March.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

ARPEGE gives a dusting for the southern part of this region tonight on its 06z update from the frontal system, then later into the overnight hours those showers come up as have been suggested by some models and gives some snow to some parts of the southern counties.

However those would be hit and miss, and so IF ARPEGE was right some areas even south of M4 would get pretty much nothing. Areas with showers would probably still cope a decent fall.

NOT a good sign at all, AROEGE tends to be decent in frontal situation at this range!! If it is, not worth even watching for really.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
42 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Nothing to do with the front unfortunately, only a few well placed showers. Front looks bang on where it should be.

Oh good, need it south for here lol.

To be honest not expect anything but rain here, with sleet in heavy bursts whatever happens. After reading meto text.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
1 hour ago, CanadianCoops said:

I'll just post the HIRLAM and the ICON (precip charts)  for 3am. Take a look - they vary a fair bit. Can you take an average from them? I usually go with the average and take a bit off just to be cautious - anything more is a bonus. 

image.thumb.png.8ae7d62c3326f4016c7e255d86b62465.pngimage.thumb.png.f686280b999f5071c2e171057bbbc29b.png

I'll take the bottom chart - gives my area an extra 1cm

I do think my area is on the northern edge of the precipitation (Bexleyheath) so could be squeaky bum time later!

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
59 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Good let’s hope those events spare us up here in East Anglia!! 

When we finally do get a freezing E or NE’ly (some signs of that on the ECM), East Anglia will be in prime position for any snow showers and troughs moving W/SW. Also less chance of marginal crap. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Here is the 06z ARPEGE for 11pm after the front has faded:

arpege-45-16-0.thumb.png.b6d4aec573d0732a9b4f0f8a2e4b25e0.png

No where above 1cm in our region.

We need to hope those showers come off IF (big if again!) the ARPEGE is correct, otherwise may wake up with nothing even down in the southern counties.

PS - It DOES develop a little circulation afterwards which peps the showers up quite a lot...but that's risky depending on a secondary low to pop up, they are difficult to forecast at the best of times!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

Morning all,

-6c here in West Ipswich when i awoke, up to -2 in bright sunshine now, beautiful wintry scene.

So today is chase day again, much more excited about this event as opposed to Tuesdays, maybe not so much for me but the rest of you Southwards.

Im not in any way saying it will but this set up has scope for surprises both during and post, circulations cropping up have already been mentioned, also i still like the looks of the North Sea after the low goes through, i shall certainly watch any moisture coming off the Netherlands.

All in all, enjoy the next 24/48 hours, and the best of luck to you all

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

Chin up kold, let’s stick to the radar later. 

6771A167-41DB-4A7B-AE55-7D4040BBA744.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The position of the low is exactly where it was supposed to be at this stage .

The Arpege is hardly the gold standard of modelling and I don’t know why it’s been given such attention .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

#BREAKING NEWS.

 

The East sussex coast has just had a snow flurry.

Edited by sunnijim
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The position of the low is exactly where it was supposed to be at this stage .

The Arpege is hardly the gold standard of modelling and I don’t know why it’s been given such attention .

 

No, but it IS solid inside 24hrs I've found and isn't that far removed from the other models, its only 20-30 miles further south with the main features but that makes all the difference.

As ylou say, for now the system looks on track.

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

The best thing about this cold spell is this morning.

Generally down to minus 5 everywhere, stunning sunny frosty morning.

Sun is beginning to get stronger all the frost gone already in the sun.

I think the snow tonight will be a miss for this corner, just wet mush.
Will be good on higher elevations.

Anything beyond tonight ie weekend will be to warm for anything but wet snow and mainly rain and personally have seen enough wet snow already coming to nothing.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, john mac said:

Chin up kold, let’s stick to the radar later. 

6771A167-41DB-4A7B-AE55-7D4040BBA744.png

ARPEGE still does give some fun, its just all or nothing type of fun that you'd usually get in an easterly, not a southerly!

Anyway we will see, ICON has gone slightkly north this morning compared to the ARPEGE which is gone south, so maybe in the middle!

PS - on a side note, would anyone be that surprised if it did stay in the channel, I mean how many times have we seen that happen before? Not saying it will happen, but hardly unheard of!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, kold weather said:

No, but it IS solid inside 24hrs I've found and isn't that far removed from the other models, its only 20-30 miles further south with the main features but that makes all the difference.

As ylou say, for now the system looks on track.

It’s been wrong down here even as the event has unfolded ! I can’t see the front being that weak.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Really don’t know why some are fretting so much over one model run, let’s see how it plays out then we can judge which model was right in the end, though generally if you are south of the Thames and M4 west of London then best chance of seeing most snow IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ARPEGE still does give some fun, its just all or nothing type of fun that you'd usually get in an easterly, not a southerly!

Anyway we will see, ICON has gone slightkly north this morning compared to the ARPEGE which is gone south, so maybe in the middle!

PS - on a side note, would anyone be that surprised if it did stay in the channel, I mean how many times have we seen that happen before? Not saying it will happen, but hardly unheard of!

I would say everything is still on the table. Many possible outcomes, so looking forward to an interesting day.

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