SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Kent Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Nothing to do with the front unfortunately, only a few well placed showers. Front looks bang on where it should be.

Yes but then look below that on the border ( the front), that's more North and earlier, surely?

I like the fact that it's driving snow showers ahead of it, that gives hope to many more in this thread.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Kent Blizzard

[Oaks]

Is Sevenoaks still looking good for snow later ?

[WhiteFox]

4 minutes ago, Hammer said:

If ICON has nailed this then kudos to it. I can't think METO will be to pleased with the performance of their model it originally had a warning up to Darlington, reduced it back south but only by about 100 miles and now a distinct possibility of no snow further than southern counties below M25 if of course ICO  is correct.

Interesting viewing later.

The yellow warning is really there to catch the possibilities of snow at a longer range; you can tell by the level of certainty they apply. Once they get closer to the event and certainty increases they will remove yellow warnings from some areas and place amber warnings over smaller areas where likelihood is higher. 

Anyway, beautiful sunrise over the River Loddon this morning near Shinfield. Managed to get a quick snap from the car whilst sitting in traffic. Bit of mist over the fields.

 

Edited January 31, 2019 by WhiteFox
Typo

[Nqp15hhu]

15 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Belfast has snow currently, that would be slightly further North than was expected and earlier...

How much further north would this put the front?

[Daenerys]

Well, I'm clueless as to whether I will or will not get snow, how much , when it will arrive etc. I'm just glad we have a CHANCE of some flakes It's actually got to that point. 

When is the best time to start keeping an eye out for NE Surrey?

[SnowBlake]

10 minutes ago, Mark said:

Is Hastings about to get a bonus morning dusting?

I'll let you know in about 45 minutes. I'm two stone's throws away from the sea I'd say. So light on the radar and as often the case nothing actually falls.

 

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, WhiteFox said:

 

 

Hope you weren’t using your phone whilst driving when you took that shot. Slapped wrists if yes. 

[Hammer]

1 minute ago, WhiteFox said:

The yellow warning is really there to catch the possibilities of snow at a longer range; you can tell by the level of certainty they apply. Once they get closer to the event and certainty increases they will remove yellow warnings from some areas and place amber warnings over smaller areas where likelihood is higher. 

Anyway, beautiful sunrise over the River London this morning near Shinfield. Managed to get a quick snap from the car whilst sitting in traffic. Bit of mist over the fields.

 

Maybe but ICON never had this going as far up to Darlington in the first place even many days ago. 

We should expect better performance from METO noting investment. 

[Nick F]

9 minutes ago, saint said:

Fergie mentioning the risk of that circulation... Will be interesting to see if it materialises! 

Probably talking about the small low in the Channel showing on UKMO high res 

 

[Essexgooner]

Just a slushy mess predicted in my part of the world , the app will have this spot on for me haha

[SnowBlake]

Just now, Daenerys said:

Well, I'm clueless as to whether I will or will not get snow, how much , when it will arrive etc. I'm just glad we have a CHANCE of some flakes It's actually got to that point. 

When is the best time to start keeping an eye out for NE Surrey?

Approx 7-9pm

[kold weather]

00z ECM had temperatures at 10 around 0-1c. Unless there is a rapid warm up that's going to be at least 2-3c too high and probably more than that. So looks like it's colder than expected. 

[Delka]

Not often you can say it's -4c at almost 10am right on the coast of norfolk! feeling bitter with a frost and thick fog

hoping it stays much like this throughout the day as it's beautiful!

[classylady]

What a beautiful morning.  Busy getting all my work done so I can concentrate being on here later as well as checking the radar, temperature, dew point etc!

Have a good day. x

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Delka said:

Not often you can say it's -4c at almost 10am right on the coast of norfolk! feeling bitter with a frost and thick fog

hoping it stays much like this throughout the day as it's beautiful!

It's a lovely morning, Delka...Reminds of 1963, when all the spiderwebs were festooned with inch-thick hoarfrost.

[Reefseeker]

9 minutes ago, Daenerys said:

Well, I'm clueless as to whether I will or will not get snow, how much , when it will arrive etc. I'm just glad we have a CHANCE of some flakes It's actually got to that point. 

When is the best time to start keeping an eye out for NE Surrey?

My son is at Nescot College and hoping for a snow day tomorrow! We are in Surbiton and it all looks so marginal on one or two of the models that we could be snowless in Surbiton while Epsom is Snowmaggedon! Good luck!

[kold weather]

As that tweet that Nick has put up shows, there is certainly the risk of small waves/low pressure systems forming within the broadly cyclonic flow. If these do occur it will bump up snowfall totals, especially closer to the coast you go.

[Mark]

8 minutes ago, Blake Allen said:

I'll let you know in about 45 minutes. I'm two stone's throws away from the sea I'd say. So light on the radar and as often the case nothing actually falls.

 

Definitely something falling out of the sky off the coast (live webcam still)

It's nothing really, in the grand scheme of today, but nice to look out for

[WhiteFox]

12 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Hope you weren’t using your phone whilst driving when you took that shot. Slapped wrists if yes. 

Ha ha! Was sitting in traffic. Although the car in front pulled away and I hadn't noticed so the car behind was getting impatient. Desnt he know there are more important things in life?

[kold weather]

06z GFS giving 1-2cms widely (including a fair way north of the M4!) with a smaller area of 3-4cms within 20-30 miles of the coast. Which is similar to the other models overall.

[WhiteFox]

13 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Maybe but ICON never had this going as far up to Darlington in the first place even many days ago. 

We should expect better performance from METO noting investment. 

We have no idea what ensembles were showing on met office or ICON so it's difficult to know really.

[sunnijim]

Unable to change my work pattern,

My route from 2100 tonight takes me out of SE London,around the M25,down the M23 to Brighton!

Could be interesting in a Vauxhall Corsa.

[anything-but]

Can someone go to work for me today please.

 

 

[throwoff]

1 minute ago, sunnijim said:

Unable to change my work pattern,

My route from 2100 tonight takes me out of SE London,around the M25,down the M23 to Brighton!

Could be interesting in a Vauxhall Corsa.

A Vauxhall Corsa is the carriage of the masses. You will be fine.

[Matty88]

What a morning! -7 reported in this area and it is definitely the coldest morning of the winter season 2018/19 so far for this part of the world. 

Quite a few in the East Anglian region asking about the northerly extent - me included! The models are all really poor with this - one shows it staying South of London others push it up to the likes of Kings Lynn. My gut feel is the bulk will stay South and we'll get some flurries further North which will hopefully contribute to a dusting. Difficult to say presently if it will be anything more than that... definitely one to watch. Interesting times!