SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Jackski4]

Well! According to the MO it looks to stay cold into next week with a potential snow event on Sunday and Tuesday.!

As for today, I'm confident. Like I said yesterday, snowmageddon is coming!! And oh look, is that an EASTERLY showing on the ECM?

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

 

A lot of reverse psychology in here !!!!

You may well be right about that!

Anyway as IDO shows Icon is unchanged from its 03z run, literally identical. 

2-3hrs of light-moderate snow south of M4, with a risk of heavy snow into the far SW of the region and maybe along the south coast.

[Tom Jarvis]

34 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

I’m way jumping the gun but taking the morning off tomorrow and going to drive up  to Ashdown Forest/Crowborough way for some photo’s as I think they look like doing pretty well later.

Hoping I’m in an OK spot a bit inland but still pretty near the south coast so should see some heavier stuff, as long as it’s white!

Will let you know what it is like up here as just live on the edge of the forest 

[weathergeek]

Chance again on Sunday into Monday?!

 

[mulzy]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

Latest from ICON, 06z run:

It's just one model but that looks disappointing for much of the region. 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, weathergeek said:

Chance again on Sunday into Monday?!

 

I read that earlier on hence my earlier post.. Looks promising?

[Mark Parsons]

3 hours ago, Mizzle said:

Will do...but I am 45 miles inland so I didn't think it would be such a factor. Hirlam shows my increased temps to 4C and dps not rising above 0C. 

I don't have the skill set to necessarily understand it all myself; my curiosity is more about the seemingly huge shift in such a short space of time at such short notice (i.e. would sea temps change rapidly enough to even catch the MO off guard?). I know local variations will always come in to play but it seems quite a wide spread. Hmmm.

You should be ok, wait and see bud.

[Nqp15hhu]

6 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Well! According to the MO it looks to stay cold into next week with a potential snow event on Sunday and Tuesday.!

As for today, I'm confident. Like I said yesterday, snowmageddon is coming!! And oh look, is that an EASTERLY showing on the ECM?

Good let’s hope those events spare us up here in East Anglia!! 

Edited January 31, 2019 by Nqp15hhu

[Coopsy]

8 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Thanks CC but I can't get the sliders to move on my phone, will check on computer later too

Whats your temp and humidity? I'll let you know

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Good let’s hope those events spare us up here in East Anglia!! 

Maybe it can stay north of the M25.

As long as it hits Essex

[snowblind]

Very cold last night down to -6.7c. still -5.5c now. Looks very wintry with a thin snow cover and patches of freezing fog.

I should add this is north Essex for anyone on their phone.

Edited January 31, 2019 by snowblind

[Snowman.]

As I actually live by Prittlewell rather than Southend I wacked that in to Met Office and saw double flakes for 4 hours.. the best MO forecast I have seen this year even if it really means nothing.

[Kent Blizzard]

Belfast has snow currently, that would be slightly further North than was expected and earlier...

[Mark]

Is Hastings about to get a bonus morning dusting?

[Kent Blizzard]

We have about an hour or so to go then I expect to see the warnings updated

[Jackski4]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

As I actually live by Prittlewell rather than Southend I wacked that in to Met Office and saw double flakes for 4 hours.. the best MO forecast I have seen this year even if it really means nothing.

That 3 minute distance makes all the difference then 

[tight isobar]

12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

You may well be right about that!

Anyway as IDO shows Icon is unchanged from its 03z run, literally identical. 

2-3hrs of light-moderate snow south of M4, with a risk of heavy snow into the far SW of the region and maybe along the south coast.

As some accused me of posting the gfs precip rates 'as selected data'..

The same can maybe - be said on the otherside of the coin...via ICON?!

[kold weather]

12 minutes ago, mulzy said:

It's just one model but that looks disappointing for much of the region. 

That is more or less what most of the high resolution models have. One or two isn't even that good! Icon is ok if your south of M25s southerly most point. But just a cloudy night for those further north IF the Icon is right....it may or may not be, who knows until tonight!

[Sparky68]

5 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Belfast has snow currently, that would be slightly further North than was expected and earlier...

Be nice if there was a shift Northwards

[saint]

Fergie mentioning the risk of that circulation... Will be interesting to see if it materialises! 

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

That 3 minute distance makes all the difference then 

Apparently so 

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Belfast has snow currently, that would be slightly further North than was expected and earlier...

Nothing to do with the front unfortunately, only a few well placed showers. Front looks bang on where it should be.

[Hammer]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

That is more or less what most of the high resolution models have. One or two isn't even that good! Icon is ok if your south of M25s southerly most point. But just a cloudy night for those further north IF the Icon is right....it may or may not be, who knows until tonight!

If ICON has nailed this then kudos to it. I can't think METO will be to pleased with the performance of their model it originally had a warning up to Darlington, reduced it back south but only by about 100 miles and now a distinct possibility of no snow further than southern counties below M25, if of course ICON is correct.

Interesting viewing later.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Hammer
Spelling

[Nick F]

20 minutes ago, mulzy said:

It's just one model but that looks disappointing for much of the region. 

The actual precipitation extent won’t play by what the models are showing exactly and they all having differing degrees of extent and intensity even at this short range, so wouldn’t worry too much for now and just see how it plays out in reality by now casting. The weather has its own agenda not the models agenda, the models can only guess to an extent. With some instability element showing along the front in real time, models often caught out simulating this well at quite close lead times too.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Nick F

[Kentspur]

While we're discussing Meto apps as useless as they can be and very different from BBC app, but it's showing snowmaggedon for Gravesend currently hours on end of Double flake symbols. Thames streamer?

Edited January 31, 2019 by Kentspur