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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

Blessed Weather

By Blessed Weather
in Regional

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

Well the itv weather forecast doing it’s damndest to fizzle the front out before it gets to North Downs and London.....

 

BFTP

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Coopsy Accomplished

Coopsy

Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Some of it is I'm no longer quite in the jackpot zone, so it is a touch IMBY. But Im just trying to ensure people don't ramp like mad then moan when it doesn't give ad much as people thought like Tuesday.

Best set low expectations and then be surprised.

the ICON is showing around 5/6 cms for you by 3am - up to 10cm's for parts of Kent/Sussex. Even a few cm's for north of London in EA.

Mirror that with the HIRLAM model that gives 3-5cm for both your area and into Kent/Sussex way. Negligible amounts for north of London into EA.

An average of those two I'd settle on - I think you'll do OK

Edited by CanadianCoops
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

the ICON is showing around 5/6 cms for you by 3am - up to 10cm's for parts of Kent/Sussex. Even a few cm's for north of London in EA.

Mirror that with the HIRLAM model that gives 3-5cm for both your area and into Kent/Sussex way. Negligible amounts for north of London into EA.

An average of those two I'd settle on - I think you'll do OK

I'd be happy enough with even 3cms, got a sneaky feeling that area of higher snowfall will sneak just to my south, I may kiss the higher area briefly.

As you say ICON was a good run, not that dissimilar to Euro4.

Also just remember that the lighter stuff at the front edge probably struggle to make the ground due to drier air and the low dew points, may take some stronger returns to finally push through that problem.

Edited by kold weather
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lawrenk Veteran

lawrenk

Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
Posted

I’m way jumping the gun but taking the morning off tomorrow and going to drive up  to Ashdown Forest/Crowborough way for some photo’s as I think they look like doing pretty well later.

Hoping I’m in an OK spot a bit inland but still pretty near the south coast so should see some heavier stuff, as long as it’s white!

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Coopsy Accomplished

Coopsy

Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
Posted (edited)

I'll just post the HIRLAM and the ICON (precip charts)  for 3am. Take a look - they vary a fair bit. Can you take an average from them? I usually go with the average and take a bit off just to be cautious - anything more is a bonus. 

image.thumb.png.8ae7d62c3326f4016c7e255d86b62465.pngimage.thumb.png.f686280b999f5071c2e171057bbbc29b.png

Edited by CanadianCoops
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throwoff Seasoned

throwoff

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

Medway is like a little ice box this morning. While extra care needs to be taken it is immensely pretty.

Fingers crossed we are heading into some snow this evening, if the temps stay more like this whatever falls is going to lay quick.

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Trom Enthusiast

Trom

Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
Posted

Wow big upgrade overnight for snow in the South London/North Surrey area from the Met.  Double flake symbols instead of single and extension of the period at both ends.  Was 6pm to 4am now showing as 5pm to 8am.  I have my finger crossed that they're right.

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throwoff Seasoned

throwoff

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
Just now, Trom said:

Wow big upgrade overnight for snow in the South London/North Surrey area from the Met.  Double flake symbols instead of single and extension of the period at both ends.  Was 6pm to 4am now showing as 5pm to 8am.  I have my finger crossed that they're right.

From a purely selfish perspective I am happy about the upgrades, if I am thinking more with my good Samaritan hat on this hitting during Rush Hour could be horrible for some.

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Nqp15hhu Explorer

Nqp15hhu

Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
Posted
3 minutes ago, Trom said:

Wow big upgrade overnight for snow in the South London/North Surrey area from the Met.  Double flake symbols instead of single and extension of the period at both ends.  Was 6pm to 4am now showing as 5pm to 8am.  I have my finger crossed that they're right.

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Mike Storm Apprentice

Mike Storm

Posted
  • Location: Crayford Kent :) 30m AMSL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Storms
  • Location: Crayford Kent :) 30m AMSL
Posted

Met office has upgraded Bexleyheath to four hours of two snowflake icons! For 11pm-2am Currently - 2.2 c 

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throwoff Seasoned

throwoff

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
Just now, Snow Queen one said:

I want a day off tomorrow I hope rain does not come and spoil it

Some areas of Maidstone could do very well tonight I think.

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted

-4C here, hard frost and mist. Beautiful. 

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James1979 Community Regular

James1979

Posted
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, gales, all extreme weather really!
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
Posted

-7.1c the minimum, been a while since I've seen that low.  All that beautiful cold and no snow expected again after all the warnings, talk about painful.  Still, at least it's wintry out there and it looks stunning, wall to wall sunshine and a billion crazy diamonds shining on.

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Buzzit Contributor

Buzzit

Posted
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3
Posted

Considering the met 5 day showed all rain / sleet for the local area around QPR on Tuesday (which was correct) and currently has heavy snow for at least a couple of hours overnight.. I shall bank it and any extra will be a bonus .. 

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weathergeek Community Regular

weathergeek

Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
Posted

Before the mayhem ensues later, I saw someone ask about a dew point calculation on here the other day. My weather station shows temp and humidity, is there a formula to work out the dew point from these please? Ta

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Coopsy Accomplished

Coopsy

Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
Posted
3 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Before the mayhem ensues later, I saw someone ask about a dew point calculation on here the other day. My weather station shows temp and humidity, is there a formula to work out the dew point from these please? Ta

I use this:

http://www.dpcalc.org/

 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted (edited)

Latest from ICON, 06z run:

anim_kka8.gif

Edited by IDO
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'd be happy enough with even 3cms, got a sneaky feeling that area of higher snowfall will sneak just to my south, I may kiss the higher area briefly.

As you say ICON was a good run, not that dissimilar to Euro4.

Also just remember that the lighter stuff at the front edge probably struggle to make the ground due to drier air and the low dew points, may take some stronger returns to finally push through that problem.

M8 ..your in liphook..

Not a prayer it will slip -south- of you!!.

Your in a decent plot.

And the extent will be a far, more northerly extent.

And thats also inclusive of precip rates!

 

A lot of reverse psychology in here !!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Downpour Community Regular

Downpour

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
Posted

General upgrades across the board for the M25 region I would say, and I am normally quite cautious. The front looks quite active on the radar too, with the swing looking about right.

But, time will tell.

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weathergeek Community Regular

weathergeek

Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
Posted
7 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

I use this:

http://www.dpcalc.org/

 

Thanks CC but I can't get the sliders to move on my phone, will check on computer later too

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