SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[shotski]

18 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Watching good old carol kirkwood this morning

Graphics very much looked like some sort of streamer around the Thames tomorrow lunchtime

any thoughts

I can never concentrate on the weather when she’s on for some reason

[snowblind]

24 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Anyone expecting an amber warning upgrade later? M4, M3 and M25 could be difficult during rush hour later. 

Current radar shows a lot of heavy precipitation just off the SW.

At the moment I would say no. Things are pretty uncertain it will depend how they develop later in the day. It would probably be the case that they would issue one sort of last minute if things start to look more severe than they currently think, especially if features such as The Blob, Blue mentions above do develop. A fluid situation I think.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Sussex Snowman said:

Am I right in thinking that double snow symbols on the Met app is linked to probability of precipitation as much as/instead of intensity? Anything >80% seems to warrant a double snowflake where as 50-80% gives a single snowflake. 

I think it’s intensity ....

[Djdazzle]

24 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, but they are model derived so do help with basics, such as likely starting time / temps.

And the models they are derived from are useless st predicting precipitation.

[kold weather]

Looking at radar this front already looks somewhat ragged in it's state, probably more so then what the models showed on thier 18z suite. Not sure when compared with 00z.

Not t eling too confident now, snow is coming but  not very much I suspect.

Edited January 31, 2019 by kold weather

[IanT]

22 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Upcoming snow event...tonight/tmoz..

Sweetspots= london into home counties- arming into mid southern wales...

Some impactual accums in these areas.

Those would be a pretty solid punt now.

Looks ok to me.

[john mac]

8 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi snowbob,

A little North of the Thames and a little later but this looks sort of "Thames Streamer", territory. These charts, from the 00z GFS, run.

Certainly, something to keep an eye on.

Regards,

Tom. 

See my post from last night. Even the beeb forecast lookeDo like it was setting up a streamer from around midnight tonight.

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Looking at radar this front already looks somewhat ragged in it's state, probably more so then what the models showed on thier 18z suite. Not sure when compared with 00z.

Not t eling too confident now, snow is coming  but very much I suspect.

Why is the gfs still adament that the snow is going to go as far as north wales to the wash!!!

Also it has the main band for midlands and east anglia but little for london southwards!!

Edited January 31, 2019 by shaky

[Sparky68]

Just now, shaky said:

Why is the gfs still adament that the snow is going to go as far as north wales to the wash!!!

Giving cold lovers some lingering hope!

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, IanT said:

Looks ok to me.

Selected the best output ! And that delivers around 1 to 2 cm on the snow depth chart! 

[Radiating Dendrite]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Amounts from the high resolution generally 1-2cms, South coast maybe 3-4cms. It's only the Euro4 that is showing anything heavier.

However given where the models are, even a slightly faster decay than expected could lead to no snow. Equally a slight slower delay would lead to the Euro 4 solution.

What I'd say is expect little tonight and if we are lucky, then great!

The models have been all over the place.

All they seem to do is downgrade after initially starting our wildly optimistic.

If this was a rain event, I could guarantee a 20mm fall overnight! The actual synoptic looks great, but in reality it is going to possibly end up pants. If this chart was a historical one, would you look and think classic snow set up, why is the front going to die?

[snowbob]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Looking at radar this front already looks somewhat ragged in it's state, probably more so then what the models showed on thier 18z suite. Not sure when compared with 00z.

Not t eling too confident now, snow is coming  but very much I suspect.

I was under the impression that it was always that way as it approached land

then builds as it slows

[bluearmy]

I’m going to refrain from posting the ec snow chart as it’s currently the only model that brings the small low up into the London area 

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I’m going to refrain from posting the ec snow chart as it’s currently the only model that brings the small low up into the London area 

Go on - give us some hope!

Edited January 31, 2019 by Radiating Dendrite

[Karmamel]

Please please please let there be snow in whitstable tomorrow morning I don’t want to go n to work

[lottiekent]

Morning

Coldest I’ve seen it here since moving up onto the hills two years ago - currently -5.2c with a DP of -5.6c and very frosty 

Edited January 31, 2019 by lottiekent
Spelling

[snowbob]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’m going to refrain from posting the ec snow chart as it’s currently the only model that brings the small low up into the London area 

We can dream

[NO LONGER POSTING]

A404 right now.. Thick freezing fog absolute winter wonderland thick hard hoar frost 

[john mac]

I’m quite shocked. Down to -7.1c here in Waltham abbey

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’m going to refrain from posting the ec snow chart as it’s currently the only model that brings the small low up into the London area 

Just looked at that - was you referring to timestamps 42-48-54??

[TJP85]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Looking at radar this front already looks somewhat ragged in it's state, probably more so then what the models showed on thier 18z suite. Not sure when compared with 00z.

Not t eling too confident now, snow is coming but  not very much I suspect.

Last few frames looks like it’s filling in to me? Becoming more organised from 7:00-7:15 southwest of the Lizard Peninsular? 

[Uxbridge90]

Met office and BBC morning video forecasts still look alright for many of us.  Seems that 1-3 cm could be expected which would do me just fine! 

Edited January 31, 2019 by Uxbridge90

[warrenb]

It is the stuff just off the coast of Ireland you should be looking at as the low drifts south then ssw and pivots

[LightningLover]

A few unexpectedly active Thunderstorms off the SW coast  this morning, along with very heavy precipitation on radar... Bodes well for later!

-2c here in Hastings currently, with a thick frost mixing with the remaining patchy snow cover (it's more like hard ice though due to refreezing a few times).

[Tom Quintavalle]

4 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Morning

Coldest I’ve seen it here since moving up onto the hills two years ago - currently -5.2c with a DP of -5.6c and very frosty 

Hi Lottie,

Certainly the hardest frost I've seen so far this Winter, here in S.E.London.

Regards,

Tom.