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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


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Posted
  • Location: Between Devizes and Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Location: Between Devizes and Trowbridge, Wilts
4 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Just in the valley, only 80m asl but it helps. Hills around reach up to 160m, so they usually do well.

Expecting a few inches tonight hopefully.

I am at 60m asl between Box Hill (224m) and Holmbury Hill (261m) in Dorking so often in a bit of a rain/snow shadow! 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ec op develops a small circulation on the occlusion in a more favourable spot for the se - generates a small blob (circa 25 miles diameter) which will head nne ......locally 5/10 cms from that but you can be sure it wouldn’t develop exactly like that and it’s track would vary from that in any case. If you take out this circulation headed ne, then you are left with most models which are pretty well as they were yesterday evening if not even less enthused about snow depth!  

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Anyone expecting an amber warning upgrade later? M4, M3 and M25 could be difficult during rush hour later. 

Current radar shows a lot of heavy precipitation just off the SW.

Edited by Radiating Dendrite
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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
31 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Unfortunately an easterly is looking unlikely, they have all failed to materialize  this winter so far, no beast from the east

Oh Lassie you’ve jinxed it now sure to get an easterly...........checks latest ECM day 8 

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Just now, shotski said:

Oh Lassie you’ve jinxed it now sure to get an easterly...........checks latest ECM day 8 

Woah - where did that come from!

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Mmm, I know it's a long way out but the 00z ECM run is starting to look very ICON-like, in it's latter stages:

image.thumb.png.a8516d369cbc583827cad8b0a846b497.png

image.thumb.png.e7c31f2064b2e132f5ae08eb37a88124.png

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Stop ?? Using ?? The ?? Apps ?? They ?? Are ?? Useless ??

Yes, but they are model derived so do help with basics, such as likely starting time / temps.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
1 minute ago, shotski said:

Oh Lassie you’ve jinxed it now sure to get an easterly...........checks latest ECM day 8 

i hope so lol on the plus side -3.5c here and what will fall tonight will start and stay as snow

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

Watching good old carol kirkwood this morning

Graphics very much looked like some sort of streamer around the Thames tomorrow lunchtime

any thoughts

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Posted
  • Location: Woking Surrey 49m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow winter. Hot hot summers
  • Location: Woking Surrey 49m ASL

Coldest night of the winter so far here in Woking !! -6.7c still falling.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
7 minutes ago, shotski said:

Oh Lassie you’ve jinxed it now sure to get an easterly...........checks latest ECM day 8 

Beast from the east alert in the MOD thread

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
2 minutes ago, shotski said:

Hello Beast, what took you so long ? 

 

046EDA63-B5F8-42AB-A69C-D5464F6DF0F8.png

now can all the models agree with this for once in their lives lol, 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
9 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, but they are model derived so do help with basics, such as likely starting time / temps.

But they don’t because they are derived from a single run of a single model output. In a setup where all models are showing different tracks/timings they’re about as useful as Stevie Wonder looking at the sky 

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Beast from the east alert in the MOD thread

Let’s face it, an easterly is much more common in Feb/March than it would be in Dec or Jan for example. So maybe this time it should be given a little bit of consideration. 

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Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
24 minutes ago, SortitoutsiVP said:

Best app forecast I've seen yet this winter for Rochford, Essex.

 

Screenshot_20190131-064028.png

I have heavy snow symbols up as far as me for the small hours, not that that means much. But the text forecast is quite encouraging for the eastern region with the talk of sleet or snow tonight more so in the south and more Sunday night into Monday.

I'm not that hopeful, but you never know.

Edited by snowblind
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Given the high resolution models this morning there may not be much snow for anyone today. The totals are even lower than last night apart from maybe the coasts.

whaaaat

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL

1518085227_10thFeb.thumb.JPG.7e90ee87a9ffa5eb53abba2d132e30b2.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Given the high resolution models this morning there may not be much snow for anyone today. The totals are even lower than last night apart from maybe the coasts.

Well they look a lot better than ties just gone and that weren’t too bad.

Quietly optimistic tonight is a nowcast again.

got a feeeling tomorrow could surprise a few with showers blowing in from a more easterly direction

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Amounts from the high resolution generally 1-2cms, South coast maybe 3-4cms. It's only the Euro4 that is showing anything heavier.

However given where the models are, even a slightly faster decay than expected could lead to no snow. Equally a slight slower delay would lead to the Euro 4 solution.

What I'd say is expect little tonight and if we are lucky, then great!

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
6 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Watching good old carol kirkwood this morning

Graphics very much looked like some sort of streamer around the Thames tomorrow lunchtime

any thoughts

Hi snowbob,

A little North of the Thames and a little later but this looks sort of "Thames Streamer", territory. These charts, from the 00z GFS, run.

image.thumb.png.6d68c550e674bd639c09eef6d49d40ce.png

image.thumb.png.af00c94d8147b9f61a83185e68fa853f.png

Certainly, something to keep an eye on.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Haywards Heath, West Sussex
  • Location: Haywards Heath, West Sussex
28 minutes ago, SortitoutsiVP said:

Best app forecast I've seen yet this winter for Rochford, Essex.

 

Screenshot_20190131-064028.png

Am I right in thinking that double snow symbols on the Met app is linked to probability of precipitation as much as/instead of intensity? Anything >80% seems to warrant a double snowflake where as 50-80% gives a single snowflake. 

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