SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

It will move south, there is little doubt as these things pretty much always do. The question is, by how much?

It’s already moved 500 miles in a week. ! Unlikely there will be any major shifts now it is 12hrs away from hitting Uk land 

[kold weather]

IMBY the HIRLAM 18z is something of an upgrade with a stronger pulse working up the front and reaching my area by 9pm.

More broadly, still mainly a south of Thames event on this run, but there is some stuff for N/NW parts of the region as well. Less so to the NE of the region.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Saw a sat pic of last nights snow on Liam Duttons feed last night- the red is the snow cover-

In marginal events elevation is key so below it ive added the topography map of the SE-

the 2 images are uncanny in terms of likeness especially for Kent !

The scale on my height map is basically shades of orange are >100M then obviously red is higher...

Yep and still some snow on those hills, mostly on the shaded side though.

[fluid dynamic]

Any idea on timing? Are we thinking it'll kick of on the south coast say Brighton say 5pm?

[John Stevens]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What’s not been talked about much is the strength of the wind coupled with the snow.

Over the Downs there might be some drifting. 

As a West Sussex boy I'm guessing you mean the south downs nick? However, now I'm living in the Surrey Hills, just of the back edge of Leith Hill, I'm expecting similar conditions here. Also looking at comments previous about the pivot point, an hoping the Surrey Hills could be in the very sweet spot?

[Alpine glow]

4 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Thanks for those very kind words Scrat, from my favourite part of my home Borough, when it snows!!

I nearly forgot, one last photo from me tonight. 

15), 

One for the Kentish chaps. The gorgeous Kaddy-Lee Preston  No explanation needed from me.

She does appear in the Kent County Weather Book., honest.

Reproduced with the VERY,VERY kind permission of Ian Currie.

Does she still present forecasts on Meridian, down in Kent?

Regards

Tom.  

 

 

She lived in the same road as my mum in Hawkenbury, Tun Wells. 

In 2010 or 2012, I can’t remember which,  she made a snow penis in her garden.  

The snowman is sooooo yesterday!  Huge it was.  School children had to walk past it twice a day.

[Mark]

My take on tomorrow afternoon is..... 

I have a hospital appointment at 1600 at Guys, near London Bridge. After that I'm getting the hell out of there to home as quick as I can! Southeastern trains are notorious for delays, so hoping to get back for some relaxed radar watching. I'm quietly waiting for my 1 - 15 cms  

[chionomaniac]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Shoreham Airport is mighty Impressive for 20z

-3c Temp

-5c Dewpoint

Wonder how low Benson will go tonight if it keeps clear skies

In a light northerly breeze or still night the cold descends down the valley impressively. But I have known this change by almost 10°c within a few hours (-7°c to +2°c) when the wind changes from off shore to on shore. The peculiarities of some locations!

[SnowBlake]

4 minutes ago, fluid dynamic said:

Any idea on timing? Are we thinking it'll kick of on the south coast say Brighton say 5pm?

Would say that's about right. How close to the seafront are you? If it snows on your seafront before it reaches me then and only then will I get excited.

I have been in over a foot of snow for 2 periods over the past 5 weeks so can't complain too much...

 

 

 

...yes i can

[Great Plum]

5 minutes ago, John Stevens said:

As a West Sussex boy I'm guessing you mean the south downs nick? However, now I'm living in the Surrey Hills, just of the back edge of Leith Hill, I'm expecting similar conditions here. Also looking at comments previous about the pivot point, an hoping the Surrey Hills could be in the very sweet spot?

You must have had some snow this morning there? I was at Broadmoor round the back of Leith Hill last Thursday and there was a tiny amount of snow then as well!

[kold weather]

18z ARPEGE still looks ok for roughly 2-5cms south of the Thames.

Also worth noting that it also has the showers early morning coming into the far south and this does give accumulations again to same locations I mentioned regarding the ICON/Euro4.

[Tony Cassidy]

Sounds like I’ll be in a good spot here in Tilgate (about 4 miles south of Gatwick). I’ll let you know what’s happening from here tomorrow snow wise! Still can’t believe the heaviest of the snow is meant to be south of the M4! Doesn’t seem right

[fluid dynamic]

4 minutes ago, Blake Allen said:

Would say that's about right. How close to the seafront are you? If it snows on your seafront before it reaches me then and only then will I get excited.

I have been in over a foot of snow for 2 periods over the past 5 weeks so can't complain too much...

 

 

 

...yes i can

well thats just bragging mister

I'll be in Falmer tomorrow until the snow hits then I'm off home by car

[John Stevens]

2 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

You must have had some snow this morning there? I was at Broadmoor round the back of Leith Hill last Thursday and there was a tiny amount of snow then as well!

We had about 5cm at midnight, but it had thawed a little to about 2-3cm first thing... Not much further thaw during the day, still a lot on the ground tonight and very bitter now!

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi Alpine Glow,

Naughty Kaddy-Lee ( was that just a case of TMI). I wished I'd known that before,.

I would've put that in my description of her. Thanks for that bit of Biography, about Kaddy-Lee.

Regards,

Tom. 

[lottiekent]

21 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Does she still present forecasts on Meridian, down in Kent?

Regards

Tom.  

 

 

Hi Tom

Seeing your post reminded me of when Kaddy came to judge the sandcastle competition on Folkestone’s Sunny Sands beach in 2011 and I was lucky enough to get a photo with her!

Please excuse me looking a sweaty mess, it was a very warm day!

Edited January 30, 2019 by lottiekent

[Great Plum]

7 minutes ago, John Stevens said:

We had about 5cm at midnight, but it had thawed a little to about 2-3cm first thing... Not much further thaw during the day, still a lot on the ground tonight and very bitter now!

That sounds similar to what I saw on Reigate Hill this morning.

btw, amazing part of the world you are in - I found the tower at Broadmoor last week...

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi Lottie,

Lovely photo there. Was that before you won my Snow Depth Cup?

Regards,

Tom. 

[chionomaniac]

Had a look at most of the models regarding tomorrow’s precipitation arrival and northern extent and have to say that I never see this amount of variability in the summer. ( I look for cricket) 

so radar watch it is then as I am working TIL 8 in east grinstead and cant make a call weather to leave early looking at the  models

[On the rocks]

Evening all

 

Am a newbie to the forums, and thought I would say hello.

I joined as I issue the flood warnings from The Humber down to the Thames  - and think this site would be useful, as well as to have general discussions too.  

Edited January 30, 2019 by On the rocks

[alexisj9]

13 minutes ago, kold weather said:

18z ARPEGE still looks ok for roughly 2-5cms south of the Thames.

Also worth noting that it also has the showers early morning coming into the far south and this does give accumulations again to same locations I mentioned regarding the ICON/Euro4.

They are welcome as long as they are not the same as Tuesdays pre showers.

[nick sussex]

29 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Is there likely to be any stalling of this LP? More to the point, slower track South... I know a bit of a tough Q but is this a possibility

 

Edit: Really like the GFSP take on this

Some of the models bring the occlusion se and any rain or sleet changes back to snow .

The coldest dew points will be on the north flank of the occlusion . A lucky location will be in the right spot to have all snow just far enough north to stay in that colder air but not too far to miss the heavier snow .

At this point given it’s under 24 hours from the event it’s down to nowcasting .

[John Stevens]

2 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

That sounds similar to what I saw on Reigate Hill this morning.

btw, amazing part of the world you are in - I found the tower at Broadmoor last week...

It is beautiful, I moved here 19 years ago with a three year plan!!! That's the tower that was also built by the same landowner as Leith Hill Tower. Have you ever found the waterfall between Broadmoor and Friday Street?

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Had a look at most of the models regarding tomorrow’s precipitation arrival and northern extent and have to say that I never see this amount of variability in the summer. ( I look for cricket) 

so radar watch it is then as I am working TIL 8 in east grinstead and cant make a call weather to leave early looking at the  models

What is interesting is how different models are evolving the front, some are shearing the thing into oblivion as soon as it enters our regions. Others are holding it quite well till it gets north of the Thames, then it disintegrates. This is obviously leading to some large differences. I do feel sorry for the Met office with this type of set-up, because it could totally bust and make their warnings look over-exaggerated, but equally it could come in stronger than expected and make the warnings not be enough. 

[chionomaniac]

4 minutes ago, On the rocks said:

Evening all

 

Am a newbie to the forums, and thought I would say hello.

I joined as I issue the flood warnings from The Humber down to the Thames  - and think this site would be useful, as well as to have general discussions too.  

Welcome to the madhouse. Do you work for the EA then?