SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[kold weather]

GFSp also giving some decent showers coming in from the south for Hampshire and Sussex as per Euro4 and a few other runs, could lead to a temporary increases in accumulations down there. Not a certainty, but it is a possibility judging by tonights models (and they all suggest snow as well, which was a little surprising!)

[SMU]

Saw a sat pic of last nights snow on Liam Duttons feed last night- the red is the snow cover-

In marginal events elevation is key so below it ive added the topography map of the SE-

the 2 images are uncanny in terms of likeness especially for Kent !

The scale on my height map is basically shades of orange are >100M then obviously red is higher...

[Lampostwatcher]

absolutely buzzing 6 hours of light snow 

metoffice update booooom !!!!!!

to my weather knowledge thats about 2_6cms

[Stuie]

Okey Dokey, signing in from NW Essex.... predictions for tomorrow.. 3cm.

Steve, your call?

[Nqp15hhu]

23 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

So did I - surely you can have a good stab at your own forecast?

Dig away

[Downpour]

2 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Dig away

Is that a snow ramp?

[kold weather]

By the way just to give you an idea of what the radar may look like tomorrow, here is AROME's 12z estimate. I think its broadly on the right track:

It ends up giving 3-7cms for a decent area...the ICON would probably look a fair bit worse given how little snow it shows. So not the most active front away from perhaps the far south.

[Lampostwatcher]

Just now, kold weather said:

By the way just to give you an idea of what the radar may look like tomorrow, here is AROME's 12z estimate. I think its broadly on the right track:

It ends up giving 3-7cms for a decent area...the ICON would probably look a fair bit worse given how little snow it shows. So not the most active front away from perhaps the far south.

isnt it slow moving though kold

[snowblind]

2 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

isnt it slow moving though kold

And it is supposed to pivot before moving away.

[saint]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

By the way just to give you an idea of what the radar may look like tomorrow, here is AROME's 12z estimate. I think its broadly on the right track:

It ends up giving 3-7cms for a decent area...the ICON would probably look a fair bit worse given how little snow it shows. So not the most active front away from perhaps the far south.

Those of us north of London/M4 would take that!

[snowblind]

Temp already -2.2c. Considering how little snow actually settled last night it has survived pretty well in the shade 

[Snipper]

If it gets too exciting possibly this might be of help. https://www.myshreddies.com/about

[Stephen W]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Saw a sat pic of last nights snow on Liam Duttons feed last night- the red is the snow cover-

In marginal events elevation is key so below it ive added the topography map of the SE-

the 2 images are uncanny in terms of likeness especially for Kent !

The scale on my height map is basically shades of orange are >100M then obviously red is higher...

 

 

That's really interesting and says it all.  Marginality was definitely the case last night.  I think it also shows the difference being inland makes too, especially around the coast of East Anglia.  I'm on the North Norfolk coast and we had no lying snow whilst 10 miles inland had a light covering (and I mean light!).

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

By the way just to give you an idea of what the radar may look like tomorrow, here is AROME's 12z estimate. I think its broadly on the right track:

It ends up giving 3-7cms for a decent area...the ICON would probably look a fair bit worse given how little snow it shows. So not the most active front away from perhaps the far south.

What’s the time stamp on that Kold? Might be my eyes but can’t make it out? 

[SMU]

6pm^^^

[Paul Sherman]

Shoreham Airport is mighty Impressive for 20z

-3c Temp

-5c Dewpoint

Wonder how low Benson will go tonight if it keeps clear skies

[weathergeek]

15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Saw a sat pic of last nights snow on Liam Duttons feed last night- the red is the snow cover-

In marginal events elevation is key so below it ive added the topography map of the SE-

the 2 images are uncanny in terms of likeness especially for Kent !

The scale on my height map is basically shades of orange are >100M then obviously red is higher...

Even just walking half way down Boxhill today you could see the snow wasn't as deep as the very top!

[fluid dynamic]

2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

If it gets too exciting possibly this might be of help. https://www.myshreddies.com/about

OMG how did you know about them? 

i would recommend just going out and doing some shovelling 

[SMU]

14 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Okey Dokey, signing in from NW Essex.... predictions for tomorrow.. 3cm.

Steve, your call?

1-4cm Essex low chance of 5+

2-8 N/W of London 

Kent ( mainly west ) 2-8cm as well

Surrey / Berks lottery land - 2-10

W Sussex - up to 12cm but that could be tempered by temperature & low ratios...

Less towards E sussex..

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

6pm^^^

Far too quick given the other models are about 3-4hrs slower...which makes me worried that actually the weaker models may well be right, because the longer it has before it makes it here the weaker its probably going to be.

Still, probably going to be a very long day tomorrow in the build up to the snow.

Edited January 30, 2019 by kold weather

[Radiating Dendrite]

16 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Dig away

?

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

1-4cm Essex low chance of 5+

2-8 N/W of London 

Kent ( mainly west ) 2-8cm as well

Surrey / Berks lottery land - 2-10

W Sussex - up to 12cm but that could be tempered by temperature & low ratios...

Less towards E sussex..

Sounds about right mate from what I have looked at. Still a nowcast though.

[Lampostwatcher]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

1-4cm Essex low chance of 5+

2-8 N/W of London 

Kent ( mainly west ) 2-8cm as well

Surrey / Berks lottery land - 2-10

W Sussex - up to 12cm but that could be tempered by temperature & low ratios...

Less towards E sussex..

your very generous mr murr thank you very much indeed

I think the jackpot will be banbury

Edited January 30, 2019 by Lampostwatcher

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Windsor Great park sweet spot lol!  All go up for some sledging!!! 

[snowray]

Here are my thoughts for what its worth...Ties is with PPN totals on Euro4, but I think everything will be slightly further north of the Thames estuary. 

If Euro4 is close to the mark, thats about 20cm of snow around the north downs just south of London by Friday lunchtime.