SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[username home]

1 minute ago, Ben Lewis said:

Look east have the snow line up to south Lincolnshire tomorrow. 

Where on earth on BBC getting their info from? 

Pretty misleading to the public I think. 

 

Rain for Essex?

[Downpour]

1 minute ago, Ben Lewis said:

Look east have the snow line up to south Lincolnshire tomorrow night

Where on earth on BBC getting their info from? 

Pretty misleading to the public I think. 

 

Seems to be completely out of whack with Euro4, which is usually very accurate!

[shotski]

9 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Look east have the snow line up to south Lincolnshire tomorrow night

Where on earth on BBC getting their info from? 

Pretty misleading to the public I think. 

 

Not if their right it’s not

its exactly the same as the met office video forecast. 

Edited January 30, 2019 by shotski

[Paul Sherman]

2 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Don't be rude.

Rude  Oh believe me that wasnt rude that was polite.

Move on look at some charts and have a go at a forecast yourself

[Binsey72]

I think Kent will be lucky to get a cm or 2 looks further West is best 

[kold weather]

WRF NNM 2km showing still showing a decent amount of snowfall on its 12z outcome and is far more north than the ICON for example, more similar to the UKMO I have to say. However it is based from the GFS model, therefore same bias of being too far north MAY count here as well, but I'm not entirely sure!

To be fair, a lot of different looking models this evening in the short term, I don't think we are going to get any more closure until the snow is on our doorstep.

Edited January 30, 2019 by kold weather

[Radiating Dendrite]

23 minutes ago, Bazza118 said:

Well quite surprised to see how much snow is still lying here in Coulsdon.  Even in the high street the grass and some walls still have a fairly complete covering. Definitely going you be a chilly night. Currently -2.2c    dp -3c 

Nice to see a local, just down the Brighton road in Purley. Think we could do well tomorrow, maybe 3-4".

[saint]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

WRF NNM 2km showing still showing a decent amount of snowfall on its 12z outcome and is far more north than the ICON for example, more similar to the UKMO I have to say. However it is based from the GFS model, therefore same bias of being too far north MAY count here as well, but I'm not entirely sure!

Sounds like to me it’s just going to be a wait and see situation most of tomorrow! Could go further north, might not, we’ll just have to hold on. 

[Downpour]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

WRF NNM 2km showing still showing a decent amount of snowfall on its 12z outcome and is far more north than the ICON for example, more similar to the UKMO I have to say. However it is based from the GFS model, therefore same bias of being too far north MAY count here as well, but I'm not entirely sure!

To be fair, a lot of different looking models this evening in the short term, I don't think we are going to get any more closure until the snow is on our doorstep.

In the good old days, I would have expected the Beeb to put up a McElwee or a Macaskill or a Kettley to have a crack at it on the 2235 forecast. But, these days we’ll end up none the wiser. 

[Tom Jarvis]

26 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

How rare for an majority south of M4 event... 

Makes a bloody change !

Based on tonights run I think there will still be a 15/20 mile correction south- the trend never dies !!

Been biting my lip on the mod thread over the last few days as the people moaning about the southern corrections has been really anointing as they still are in the cold air and it is allot harder to get any sort of decent snowfall in the south

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

WRF NNM 2km showing still showing a decent amount of snowfall on its 12z outcome and is far more north than the ICON for example, more similar to the UKMO I have to say. However it is based from the GFS model, therefore same bias of being too far north MAY count here as well, but I'm not entirely sure!

To be fair, a lot of different looking models this evening in the short term, I don't think we are going to get any more closure until the snow is on our doorstep.

Also the image above from that forecast looks more like gfs and euro4!!

[Downpour]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

WRF NNM 2km showing still showing a decent amount of snowfall on its 12z outcome and is far more north than the ICON for example, more similar to the UKMO I have to say. However it is based from the GFS model, therefore same bias of being too far north MAY count here as well, but I'm not entirely sure!

To be fair, a lot of different looking models this evening in the short term, I don't think we are going to get any more closure until the snow is on our doorstep.

I think this evening the Office have gone with their own model. That might not persist by morning. We shall see. 

[Downpour]

Just now, shaky said:

Also the image above from that forecast looks more like gfs and euro4!!

Indeed!

[staplehurst]

34 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Looks like the 06z EURO4 with a lot of snow edited in - you can see where the (relatively narrow) band of precipitation would be in the original model where the line of rain over the North Sea is. Snow has been drawn in north and south of this line to 'blur the edges' and spread the risk I would imagine

 

[WhiteFox]

10 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Check this out. Quite an interesting read..........
Are MeteoGroup using ECMWF model at the BBC?
http://www.xmetman.com/wp/2018/03/08/are-meteogroup-using-the-ecmwf-model-at-the-bbc/

Have to say that I totally agree with xmetman's rant in the comments.

It really is ridiculous that a state broadcaster is forced to use data from somewhere other than a highly respected government agency which has developed a model that is geared towards the UK'S position. They should be trumpeting the quality of the met office, not forcing them to save a few quid..

[A Wintry Mix]

13 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

add Thanet to your list !!

Lol, thinking the same as me!

[kold weather]

Just now, Downpour said:

I think this evening the Office have gone with their own model. That might not persist by morning. We shall see. 

Yes, looking at the met office website forecast for rainfall (which has a radar with it) shows a better 09z forecast, as BA mentioned earlier there is a little more 'beef' to the front...however still keeps the best of the snowfall right on the coast.

At the moment though, we are getting to the point where probably watching the radar will be as effective as model watching.

[clark3r]

On BBC app it has 6 hours of heavy snow for me surely that will cause disruption if it happens shame thing a aren' going to freeze after snow band maybe thawed by morning if it settles

 

[BLS]

Sorry to be that person guys what do we think about Kent for tomorrow I.e the Maidstone / Medway area as I be travelling out Thursday and back Friday ?

 

Any help would be much appreciated

[Paul Sherman]

Latest from Dan - And bear in mind he is getting far more info than what we see and it is fresh off the bat not like the recorded Met and BBC efforts from hours ago

This Map looks on the money to me

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, Paul Sherman said:

Latest from Dan - And bear in mind he is getting far more info than what we see and it is fresh off the bat not like the recorded Met and BBC efforts from hours ago

This Map looks on the money to me

 

Tieing in with the BBC?

I know its the BBC but good to compare..

[Ben Lewis]

9 minutes ago, Downpour said:

I think this evening the Office have gone with their own model. That might not persist by morning. We shall see. 

Agree, fully expecting TV weather graphics to have a massive shift south come tomorrow. 

“M4 south potential”

Rarely do we get to say that. 

[Laurence Hill]

36 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Elevation makes all the difference.  Zero snow cover here.

-0.5C

For a moment I thought you were talking about Thursday/Fridays event!

[Snowman.]

39 minutes ago, Southender said:

Loving the rain band right over me and @Paul Sherman house.

It's infuriating but after all the models I've seen it's probably going to be accurate. Travel to Chelmsford and it's probably a whole different ball game.

 

[shotski]

Love it  Dan getting more information than the Met office couldn’t make it up.