SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Jackski4]

Calling it now. Snowmageddon Thursday night early Friday. Again on Saturday. Then the Easterly comes next week and we all die of frostbite. Perfect way!!

[Chris101]

6 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Calling it now. Snowmageddon Thursday night early Friday. Again on Saturday. Then the Easterly comes next week and we all die of frostbite. Perfect way!!

For goodness sake don't hype an Easterly

Anyways how did it go down there?

[fluid dynamic]

24 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

After looking at your profile picture, I'd of never had you down as a builder!

There are lots of models in this place but this one's my fave 

Edited January 30, 2019 by fluid dynamic

[lawrenk]

40 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

A fan of the 6z GFS now are you Steve? tentative signs of what the UKM extended outlook have been hinting at.

Yes, after tomorrow’s excitement hopefully the real deal could be on its way in Feb. 

[Mark wheeler]

 

Update from the Beeb

The  Totals are increasing. They also mentioned more snow pushing in to the southwest on Friday .

Edited January 30, 2019 by Mark wheeler

[Methuselah]

Just looked at NW's forecast, for Bungay, for tomorrow (as the Beccles station has stuck at 3C and rain!); 3C max, fresh ESE wind and a nice, round 0% chance of snow...Let the excitement continue!

Edited January 30, 2019 by Ed Stone

[lassie23]

What will wreck the easterly this time

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

What will wreck the easterly this time

A giant wall of see-through concrete?

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

 

Update from the Beeb

The  Totals are increasing. They also mentioned more snow pushing in to the southwest on Friday .

Yep those totals are pretty much exactly what the ECM has on its ensembles range wise. A few low and higher outlier but probably 85% of them are within that range south of the M4, a little les north (say 1-3cms generally).

Anyway 06z ECM has come out. More or less the same as the 00z, a slightly more W-E orientation to the front but broadly the same as the 00z (oh and maybe an hour later.) Front gives a decent amount south of M4. Highest energy from the front pulses from W-E along the southern counties of England eventually into S.Kent. Then front moves into the north of our region, but it does looks a touch more ropey up there...however its forward speed is slower so that balances out somewhat. Northern extent pretty much upto the top of our region (Wash westwards) though probably not a lot for Norfolk IF this run was correct.

[JennyJane1]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Just looked at NW's forecast for tomorrow (as the Beccles station has stuck at 3C and rain!); 3C max, fresh ESE wind and a nice, round 0% chance of snow...Let the excitement continue!

Still some snow outside here.

[fluid dynamic]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Just looked at NW's forecast, for Bungay, for tomorrow (as the Beccles station has stuck at 3C and rain!); 3C max, fresh ESE wind and a nice, round 0% chance of snow...Let the excitement continue!

Brace brace brace 

[snowblind]

22 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Encouraged that METO still have the better Northerly extent for this regional thread, at least in revised warning. May suggest as a couple of models do that it may push through just a little more.

But we shall see.

Yeah, but if you read the text it sounds like a right old mess. Areas of rain and snow, maybe 1-3cms in some areas and possibly upto 10cms more likely over Wales and the South West, but many places seeing little accumulation. Guess it just shows how uncertain it is. Hopefully we might get a better idea by tonight.

[kold weather]

Also 06z showing the frontal system coming back in from the west and sliding SE over the western portions of the region out through Kent. It would likely be highly marginal, though the fact it comes overnight does add an extra inch or two to the totals for some people.

[Nqp15hhu]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Also 06z showing the frontal system coming back in from the west and sliding SE over the western portions of the region out through Kent. It would likely be highly marginal, though the fact it comes overnight does add an extra inch or two to the totals for some people.

So a triple top up for them then? 

 

Lol..

[lassie23]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A giant wall of see-through concrete?

can the gfs see the wall

[dallas]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Also 06z showing the frontal system coming back in from the west and sliding SE over the western portions of the region out through Kent. It would likely be highly marginal, though the fact it comes overnight does add an extra inch or two to the totals for some people.

Can you see an issue with low elevation?

[Jason74]

12 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

What will wreck the easterly this time

Donald Trump, at a guess. Or maybe even Lionel Blair? 

[lassie23]

Just now, Jason74 said:

Donald Trump, at a guess. Or maybe even Lionel Blair? 

no good lionel blair, think he was on holiday last feb that's why we managed a three day easterly

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, dallas said:

Can you see an issue with low elevation?

For Thursday evening, I shouldn't think so to be honest. Anything that comes up *after* the front will probably highly marginal and altitude would be key for anything I suspect. However lets get Thursday done, tomorrow is going to be a long day of radar watching I fear!

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

no good lionel blair, think he was on holiday last feb that's why we managed a three day easterly

That reminds me: does London still have lots of gasometers?

[dallas]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

For Thursday evening, I shouldn't think so to be honest. Anything that comes up *after* the front will probably highly marginal and altitude would be key for anything I suspect. However lets get Thursday done, tomorrow is going to be a long day of radar watching I fear!

Cheers

[Dazaaa07]

seems looking at peoples charts Peterborough will miss out again. we had about 5 mins of wet snow last night.

[Jackski4]

34 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

For goodness sake don't hype an Easterly

Anyways how did it go down there?

We got nothing in Southend. Other places in Essex did quite well though. But as I say, it all starts tomorrow

[snowking]

@kold weather any news on the 6z ECM?

I have to say the EURO4 is concerning for anyone from London northwards - I’ve found over the last few years that it’s generally a bit all over the place with precipitation intensity up to 48 hours out, once it gets within 24 hours it tends to be pretty good. At 48 hours out, yesterday’s snowfall event looking like bringing a few cms even into central London....then as the runs ticked on, the precipitation intensity slowly died and we saw what we saw last night - a nice little event with elevation, but elsewhere generally just a small covering (if at all)

If the ECM is on the money then I will be a lot more comfortable - if we’re slowly heading to a EURO4 solution then for anyone North of the Thames, this could become another disappointment

Let’s see how it develops though, lots of complications in the flow with multiple centres of low 

[Chris101]

2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

We got nothing in Southend. Other places in Essex did quite well though. But as I say, it all starts tomorrow

Gonna have to keep everything crossed up here, think i'll see something, front acts a bit like a seesaw so have to hope it tips as high as it needs to at this end.