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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


Blessed Weather

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

HIRLAM

hirlamuk-1-48-0.png?30-05

AROME

aromehd-1-42-0.png?30-05

APERGE

arpegeuk-1-44-0.png?30-05

Edited by Snowman.
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I think Kent and E/W Sussex may end up being the sweet spot for the largest totals tomorrow night into Friday morning, looking at the various model output so far this morning.

Hi Nick, how do you think the north London suburbs will do in terms of location. We are north of the M4, but not by much! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

IMO, tomorrow looks like being horrible, up here: fresh ESE wind and no snow; and it'll feel very raw (1-2C?) under the cloud shield! Yuck!

Maybe I'll go to the library?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

As I said I don't think the front is any further south on the ICON 06z, the backend is about the same place.

What has happened on the 06z is there was a band that formed in front of the main band that gave snow. This band is not there so you are relying on purely the main front to get up, which it does but much weaker, thus main heavy snowfall is located probably within 40 miles of the south coast.

Getting close to total agreement though now, and as snowmans charts show there isn't really much difference between those three high resolution models, which does give confidence that we are now about right to where its going to be.

Probably 2 more suites after this of possible south adjustments before its radar time...

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
Just now, Nqp15hhu said:

This is the snow at my parents house. Look at what I’m missing out on.

 

 

825BA4DE-A17C-4270-B783-49DFC0C3E728.jpeg

Where's this?

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: hot and sunny, freezing cold and snowy!!
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Lovely little dusting sparkling in the sunshine! Car is rock solid though!

Have a good day everyone. x

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
21 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Don’t think there will be too much wriggle room now, may be a tad further south if any change, think it will arrive heavy along southern counties then perhaps tend to fragment and weaken a bit as it heads north of London before sliding SE Friday morning. Saturday’s snow only showing on EC and UKMO atm, not GFS op / para or ICON, so uncertainty whether this will happen

Agreed Nick, I think this is more or less as it is now, the only question is whether the highest area of precipitation comes ashore, that could make a big difference locally with amounts. The northern extent may change purely based on how much strength the front has and how well it holds itself together on the models but the back edge has been pretty consistent in the last few runs in terms of placement and timings (though the AROME is still a little faster which makes things a touch more marginal right at the start).

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
7 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Any events after this one? Or should we focus on spring weather? 

It’s not to be written off yet, last year we got a week of disruptive snow in the first week of March!

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
18 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Think we learned our lesson after yesterday. 

I’ll not be getting reeled in by this.

I reckon your snow had dodgy watch batteries after all 

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
6 minutes ago, throwoff said:

It’s not to be written off yet, last year we got a week of disruptive snow in the first week of March!

I’m not holding out on that in this place!! Can’t even manage a cm.

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
1 minute ago, Nqp15hhu said:

I’m not holding out on that in this place!! Can’t even manage a cm.

In that case you need to order some viagra snow 

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
5 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

I take it the 20-25cm last March is a distant memory? 

No, it’s not. But that event was an extreme event not typical of this area.

Last night was more typical of this area. Just a slushy covering.

Edited by Nqp15hhu
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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

watch this low for Monday

expecting to be modelled way further south

AA4B8A46-9A7E-4623-85E0-CA2D23CFBB14.thumb.png.30026d21c4ae93052ddfdf907329e4bc.png

Moving away from the slight disappointment of the short term here locally I’ve been looking mid term again and on the face it’s not looking ovelry cold (defo not mild though), so would be good to hear your thoughts on next week Steve? More HLB to appear as a response to the SSW downwell as we move through into week 2 and the weakening jet pushed further south? Siberian high seems to be excerting it’s presence more and more  perhaps edging slightly further westwards into Scandi? 

Edited by Nimbusman
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

ARPEGE looks good for this whole area with most of this area getting snow, though very marginal for Norfolk, verbatim it shows rain/sleet up there (though it did well yesterday, I still wouldn't get too worked up about it)

There is a particular heavy pulse working its way eastwards from Hampshire through to Kent. Probably effecting people within 20-30 miles of the south coast. This is also reflected in most of the other models, though some slight disagreement how far north it gets.

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Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent

While I'm looking forward to tomorrow evening, I don't think it's much to get excited about. Looks like heavy snow from about 8PM onwards (after rush hour which is great) continuing through most of the night, accumulating nicely up to 10cm in favoured spots just to then be topped off by rain from early morning with temps around 2 degrees. Melting mess for a few hours and then pretty much gone. Daytime highs around 5 degrees and and staying there for the foreseeable future with a frost night Sat>Sun.

So instead of giving a fun snow day all this is likely to do is create chaos for Friday morning's rush hour.

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Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

watch this low for Monday

expecting to be modelled way further south

AA4B8A46-9A7E-4623-85E0-CA2D23CFBB14.thumb.png.30026d21c4ae93052ddfdf907329e4bc.png

well the cold should be still in place on Monday. Do you think elevation will be an issue tomorrow?

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
3 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

No, it’s not. But that event was an extreme event not typical of this area.

Last night was more typical of this area. Just a slushy covering.

Don't be so down pal, honestly the North sea is a snow machine when it gets going N/NE flows are the mutts for Norfolk.

In my 45 years Norfolk and Suffolk have had numerous 20cm events.

Don't count anything out, you yourself said you expected a few cm and got 1, tomorrow could be the complete reverse.

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