SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[beng]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Official depth here 4cm

Expecting to hopefully double it tomorrow

I'm trying to convince my wife that we need to move to the Kent downs - I'll use your photo as evidence if that's okay! 

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, beng said:

I'm trying to convince my wife that we need to move to the Kent downs - I'll use your photo as evidence if that's okay! 

Yeah lol 

might be 10cm by tomorrow so yes -!

[snowrye]

Had a bit of melting during the night, but it is wonderful to see, I just wish we could have a prolonged spell of winter, with frequent snow, that doesn't melt, give me a north easterly, or easterly with a biting wind chill any day of the week

[chionomaniac]

A snow ice mess this morning. Not enough for a snowman but thick wadges of ice on the car this morning. But nice to wake up and still see a whiteout.

[rubble79]

Always good to get any kind of snow but last night didn’t scratch my itch. It was too wet and looked like a thaw 

This morning it was interesting to see how much difference elevation makes. I live in a relatively low level for my area so I often see cars driving past from up the road with far more snow on them. Last night cars had settled snow on them before it had started to settle outside my house. 

What was different was my walk to the station. Just a few minutes walk but very slightly downhill - barely noticeable. Even that short distance made a huge difference in the snow. We had about a cm in favoured spots but there was little if anything just 2 mins walk away. 

On the train, the other side of Croydon there is nothing at all, just a frost on roofs.

Lets hope tomorrow gives us a nice surprise and deeper cover than is forecast. 2010 is the last really good snowfall I’ve had 

[kold weather]

Slight difference on Icon. The northern flank which was forecast by the 00z version of icon is no longer present on the latest update. that then makes the boundary a lot more of a harder m4 south line. Main front still broadly in same location.

don't want that to slip much further South because even the south part of the region might struggle otherwise!

Edited January 30, 2019 by kold weather

[Matty88]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Slight difference on Icon. The northern flank which was forecast by the 00z version of icon is no longer present on the latest update. that then makes the boundary a lot more of a harder m4 south line. Main front still broadly in same location.

don't want that to slip much further South because even the south part of the region might struggle otherwise!

Need to watch this carefully as the last couple of runs have slipped it further South too, this mornings 06z will be worth watching for signs of this. If it didn't get North of London I can sense a lot of disappointment on here but that's life!  

[lawrenk]

1 hour ago, DonnaThw said:

As your probably all aware I’m right on the coast   I’ve heard that it’s dropped south tomorrow is that better for me???

I’m similar part of the world and, yes, I think it’s generally positive as less of a “push” of milder air north.

Also may mean precipitation is heavier which may help.

I could be completely wrong of course!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Staying realistic about tomorrow - some may say ‘downbeat’ but I don’t want to fritter away too much precious time looking for snow which may never happen - however saying that looks like we may be in the sweet spot.

Keen to start to try and work out the likely timings of this - as I think I’m supposed to be doing a run from Guildford to north London first thing round the M25 Friday morning - so the nature of the roads come 7am Friday morning is of great interest!

Edited January 30, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Kentspur]

Some snowy pics around Clacket Lane this morning❄

[SMU]

ICON 9pm tomorrow

[Hammer]

16 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Slight difference on Icon. The northern flank which was forecast by the 00z version of icon is no longer present on the latest update. that then makes the boundary a lot more of a harder m4 south line. Main front still broadly in same location.

don't want that to slip much further South because even the south part of the region might struggle otherwise!

Remarkable really. With 30 or so hours still to go, wonder where it will end up. Places like Darlington were in original warning from METO. Thats got to be 200 miles up North from M4.

[Nick F]

1 hour ago, Matty88 said:

Just looking in the mod thread and looking at the general trend- do you feel theres a chance it could slip a bit further South Nick and lose some of its intensity? And what's your thoughts about the extent of the snow potential on Saturday - again is it looking like mostly it'll be the South East of the region? 

Don’t think there will be too much wriggle room now, may be a tad further south if any change, think it will arrive heavy along southern counties then perhaps tend to fragment and weaken a bit as it heads north of London before sliding SE Friday morning. Saturday’s snow only showing on EC and UKMO atm, not GFS op / para or ICON, so uncertainty whether this will happen

[Lampostwatcher]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Don’t think there will be too much wriggle room now, may be a tad further south if any change, think it will arrive heavy along southern counties then perhaps tend to fragment and weaken a bit as it heads north of London before sliding SE Friday morning. Saturday’s snow only showing on EC and UKMO atm, not GFS op / para or ICON, so uncertainty whether this will happen

is the band supposed to slip back southeast after its northern extent

[Froze were the Days]

About 1 cm on the Essex Riviera last night...soon melting in the sun, at least we had something but that's about all I can say.

[smith25]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 9pm tomorrow

nooo please go north!

[Nick F]

I think Kent and E/W Sussex may end up being the sweet spot for the largest totals tomorrow night into Friday morning, looking at the various model output so far this morning.

Edited January 30, 2019 by Nick F

[Nimbusman]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Don’t think there will be too much wriggle room now, may be a tad further south if any change, think it will arrive heavy along southern counties then perhaps tend to fragment and weaken a bit as it heads north of London before sliding SE Friday morning. Saturday’s snow only showing on EC and UKMO atm, not GFS op / para or ICON, so uncertainty whether this will happen

Yes Nick if you’re south of London looking potentially excellent further north in the region expect little more than a dusting (sadly trending the wrong way for us in the north east). Outside chance of something Saturday morning...

[stodge]

Morning all :)

No snow here in lowland East London but a very cold morning with ice and frost on cars parked outside.

Snow prospects for me - not sure. I have some hope for tomorrow but more for Friday/Saturday as the low edges past the meridian and we get a much colder feed.

We'll see.

[steveinsussex]

Struggled to get out our road this morning due to frozen snow and ice

Drive 8 miles to Crawley and there is nothing! 

[PLANET THANET]

6 minutes ago, smith25 said:

nooo please go north!

I agree with that sentiment, otherwise we in thanet missout again like you, although that icon image did only go to 9pm that steve showed so some hope possibly

Edited January 30, 2019 by PLANET THANET

[username home]

Just now, smith25 said:

nooo please go north!

Looks like another massive let down!!

[Matty88]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 9pm tomorrow

Blimey, any more vast corrections South and it'll end up in France!! The Meto fax chart has the front bushing the South Coast and not getting much further North... not looking good today. A tad premature but I am getting the sense many of us in EA/North of London may have to write off Thursday if these charts materialise. 

[Hammer]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 9pm tomorrow

Just checked a few hours later it literally inches a little past London on eastern side. 

[Nqp15hhu]

Think we learned our lesson after yesterday. 

I’ll not be getting reeled in by this.