SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Spikey M]

Finally sleet in Southend.

[Ben Blizzard]

We've got about 1cm so far and still snowing heavy - under the dark patch on the radar in Rochester! 

[Don]

Hoping to do better on Thursday after this evenings damp squib, which was expected.

[Hammer]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

18z Euro4 giving good snowfalls for Hampshire and into Sussex at 48hrs, system should continue to move ENE from this point thanks to the secondary depression in the channel. Could be a very snowy run south of that M4 (not often you get to say that, so I'll take it for now, but no more corrections please!)

This update does give credence to the idea that the worst may end up south of M4.

Icon perhaps doing well again, wasnt it south when all the bigger models had it past midlands.

With 48 hours to go. Hard to be confident of anything at moment.

[yamkin]

Still snowing here 

[kold weather]

Just now, Hammer said:

Icon perhaps doing well again, wasnt it south when all the bigger models had it past midlands.

With 48 hours to go. Hard to be confident of anything at moment.

Yep ICON has done well with this so far, just like it did with storm Emma. HIRLAM is further north and it also did a great job.

At some point the adjustments will need to come to an end, I can't imagine much more in the way of southward shifts from here, especially as the set-up starts up in 42hrs, but not impossible for the whole lot to be too far south for even us to get the best of it.

18z ECM will be out soon so that will see whether it shifts south yet again!

 

 

[Swave Snow]

1 hour ago, Cheese Rice said:

There's a complete lack of posters in London on this forum is there a secret London weather forum I'm not aware of? 

We are here 

[Wyre]

Snowing in lower Gillingham.  Settling on cars but not on the roads as yet.

[SMU]

@kold weather

Euro 4 18z 48 DPs & T2ms for 6pm

No wonder widespread snow for the SE

[Paul Sherman]

Nothing marginal about that Steve 

[March]

Nothing here. 

[Neilsouth]

Snowing from Herne Bay through to Ashford... VERY VERY weak though

[kold weather]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

@kold weather

Euro 4 18z 48 DPs & T2ms for 6pm

No wonder widespread snow for the SE

Not even marginal Steve bar maybe literally the coast. That would be good for delivering higher snow totals as we'd probably have slightly better ratios.

Much further south and the core of precip will end up not even getting inland, though there is still some leeway for people as far south as we are Steve.

[Nqp15hhu]

5 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Nothing marginal about that Steve 

But then tonight wasn't supposed to be marginal in the East and the opposite ended up occurring. 

Edited January 29, 2019 by Nqp15hhu

[john mac]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

@kold weather

Euro 4 18z 48 DPs & T2ms for 6pm

No wonder widespread snow for the SE

Steve what’s your punt for depths for Thursday? 

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Nothing marginal about that Steve 

Nope

could we end up in the 'pivot spot' !

[SMU]

Just now, john mac said:

Steve what’s your punt for depths for Thursday? 

5-10cm ! ATM

[Met4Cast]

Still belting it down with snow but struggling to accumulate. 

Given latest S trend on the models & latest MO guidance as per EssexWeather Tweet above, I think for once, S of the M4 might be favoured. What was looking like a North Midlands event just a few days ago..

One slight concern is that if this thing shifts any further South we might all miss out entirely!

[john mac]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

5-10cm ! ATM

Widely? 

[snowrye]

Shattered.com, but its so nice sitting here all cosy, watching the snow falling. Really could do with going to bed, its been a disappointing winter so far, so feel I need to stay up.and make the most of it

[Don]

Skies clearing here now.

[Vg200]

Last report from me.

Temp 0.8 degrees dew point 0 degrees.

snizzle. Settled on car roof where not too wet. No covering. On to Thursday so I can experience poor dew points again! Glad others got a decent covering of sorts. And at least my 3 year old got to see falling snow for the first time!

[Darkcloud]

Re Thursday.. met office and beeb both showing the snow turning back to rain in the early hours....what are the chances? Would really like any coverage to hang around for Friday!

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Still belting it down with snow but struggling to accumulate. 

Given latest S trend on the models & latest MO guidance as per EssexWeather Tweet above, I think for once, S of the M4 might be favoured. What was looking like a North Midlands event just a few days ago..

One slight concern is that if this thing shifts any further South we might all miss out entirely!

I personally suspect a slight shift back northwards, though the trend today has been further south for sure. Much further south and the guys in the northern part of the region will be really struggling.

 

[Paul Sherman]

2 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

But then tonight wasn't supposed to be marginal in the East, but in the end the west got the snowfall. 

Erm

Yes it was 100% Marginal, what forecasts have you been watching for the last few days ??

If you want to see the Video I shared from Dan yesterday it pretty much went as he said it would, a period of rain with dewpoints not condusive to snow, lowering as the undercutting cold air spread from the NW turning the rain to snow. You were just unlucky to be under the part of the precip that shrank in size and intensity meaning the evaporative cooling process did not affect your part of Norfolk. It might be a good idea to learn the mechanics and processes of weather dynamics before making statements like that