SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Always Upsidedown]

10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Yes, not the best probability is it. Though even Luton Airport has 30% prob of snow and it's 150m asl according to streetmap/OS. Would expect better snow probs up there so not so sure the probability on TAFs is always a good guide.  

No, its not the best. Also remember that prob 30 doesn't mean that there is a 30% probability! its a bit more binary than that. Prob 40 means that it is likely to happen, something like a 75% chance (ish) and prob 30 means it is not likely to happen, something less than 25% chance (ish). There is never a prob 50, 60 etc. Strange system isn't it and a can't imagine what sort of mind came up with it but strangely it actually works quite well.

You may have known that already in which case I am sorry for teaching my grandmother to suck eggs.

I always go with the TAFs on the day.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Always Upsidedown
spelling

[Chris101]

Rain has turned to snow on the moors in the SW

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Intresting euro 4 06z really slows the front down over us.. It almost doesn't move for ages.. 

[lawrenk]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Even Brighton racecourse which is 100m asl only has one hour of snow at 10pm, think there’s no hope for us coasters! 

Yes, as a fellow coaster I feel that the 20cms the GFS parallel predicted for me on Saturday evening’s runs may be on shaky ground.

[Biensie]

5 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Definite drop in temps in Gillingham. 

Sky looking very ominous around us. 

Hi

Do you know what the temps are at the moment?  I'm at work and noticed it got suddenly dark.

[Isle of Harry]

7 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Definite drop in temps in Gillingham. 

Sky looking very ominous around us. 

You going to the game tonight? I'm coming from Thanet on the train and hoping for sleet - It can snow after midnight please when I'll be home and snowed in. Not OUT. 

[Coopsy]

7 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Rain has turned to snow on the moors in the SW

Yup I thought Haytor Vale region (between Bovey Tracey and Widdecombe) would be snowing at 1000ft asl...the webcam confirms it is at postbridge:

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm 

And generally more rain turning to snow on the latest radar. 

EDIT: Though the webcam shows postrbridge

Edited January 29, 2019 by CanadianCoops

[Jackski4]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Intresting euro 4 06z really slows the front down over us.. It almost doesn't move for ages.. 

We're doomed ah tell yah!! Prepare for significant disruptive snow!!

[throwoff]

2 minutes ago, Isle of Harry said:

You going to the game tonight? I'm coming from Thanet on the train and hoping for sleet - It can snow after midnight please when I'll be home and snowed in. Not OUT. 

I shan't be, I only go away for various reasons all too boring for a weather forum!

[fluid dynamic]

2 hours ago, Nick F said:

I'm all prepared for clearing the driveway this week, here's one I did back in March

 

haha i knew a guy who had a heated driveway but thats ridiculous !

[chionomaniac]

On 27/01/2019 at 22:24, chionomaniac said:

Hmm. I’m not convinced still on tuesday nights outlook. If the UKMO is correct then there could be enough snow to make a snowman, otherwise a lot of us may see rain followed by wet snow that just about sticks before the morning comes and it is all gone lunchtime. I think that a bigger surprise may come from Thursday to Saturday especially if the second low is weaker and slides south more with a negative tilt. Those hoping for snowmaggedon come Wednesday morning could be disappointed unless you live in places like Biggin hill, crowbough, Reigate hill or on top of the downs.

Was hoping this was wrong about tonight but it doesn’t seem so. Anyway heavy sleety rain here now. Hmmm

[Isle of Harry]

3 minutes ago, throwoff said:

I shan't be, I only go away for various reasons all too boring for a weather forum!

No problem, I'll be looking out for your updates anyway!

[southbank]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Was hoping this was wrong about tonight but it doesn’t seem so. Anyway heavy sleety rain here now. Hmmm

seems today action may be meh , any thoughts on thursday into friday? seems more of a chance for london ?

[turkishfella]

I knew it, that's why I didn't wanna keep my expectations high. I am sure they will remove the warnings soon!!! 

[kold weather]

5.6c at home now, a slight drop from the max and we should clip off those temperatures over the next few hours as the first part of the front starts to come into range.

Edited January 29, 2019 by kold weather

[Alpine glow]

Heavy rain turned into freezing sleety slush here in Brighton. High up near the Downs.

earlier and heavier than expected going by the video Nick posted yesterday.

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, yamkin said:

 

Great video going into plenty of interesting detail about today and Thursday. Today/tonight looks ok with elevation, but I’ll be surprised to see much, if any settling snow around Heathrow (hopefully I’m wrong). Thursday could be very different, if the UKMO model output is correct then milder air to the S&W won’t reach us, keeping the SE cold and snowy throughout. Fingers crossed!

Edited January 29, 2019 by stainesbloke

[Weathizard]

Just now, Alpine glow said:

Heavy rain turned into freezing sleety slush here in Brighton. High up near the Downs.

earlier and heavier than expected going by the video Nick posted yesterday.

As you’re inland a little and on the downs you may get a covering I would guess, how far are you from the coast?

[chionomaniac]

5 minutes ago, southbank said:

seems today action may be meh , any thoughts on thursday into friday? seems more of a chance for london ?

Ahh now Thursday still on course for a few cm of snow before it turns to rain especially the further east you are

[Biggin]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Temperature should be peaking about now you’ll probably notice quite a steep fall to around 1° over the next 3 to 4 hours

 

(source: google weather )

Indeed, current rain showers are coming in on a southerly draw atm, that will change and the temps drop.

[Kentspur]

Im currently in Berks no rain here yet hoping it only moves east slowly for us all to benefit later. Not had a chance to look at the models how are we looking? On another note regardless of which footy team you support- Im literally chuffed as a in . My amazing bosses at work have got me "complimentary" tickets to my own private executive box at Wembley tomorrow to see Tottenham play️ best drag the bow tie out A night out with the bro and dad it is win lose or draw 

Edited January 29, 2019 by Kentspur

[Met4Cast]

14 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

 Was hoping this was wrong about tonight but it doesn’t seem so. Anyway heavy sleety rain here now. Hmmm

The fact you're seeing sleety rain already is perhaps a good sign given the less cold air hasn't moved away yet

[fluid dynamic]

shoreham airport... now back up to 6C, DP up to 5C aaarrgghhh

[Alpine glow]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

As you’re inland a little and on the downs you may get a covering I would guess, how far are you from the coast?

I’m up near Hollingbury golf course. Fiveways way. Sometimes we get it bad and city centre have next to nothing. 

[Lampostwatcher]

Radar pepping up again I see as it heads towards oxford now

This could be great time for us in the southeast 

Temp will drop from now on and dew pts