SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Nqp15hhu]

9 minutes ago, onepingonly said:

First chance to compare the model with the radar. Looks accurate so far.

Is that not further east?

[DAVID SNOW]

56 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Works both ways, they won’t give us their easterlies

From Russia with love.

[Donna3397]

If you hear on the news that a woman has killed her husband that’s probably me because my husband wanted to move back right next to the South Coast.  

i am right on the coast so I don’t think our chances will be that high. Maybe my luck might be in though because I’m closer to France than to London, they might be generous with some of their snow because We’re neighbours

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Matty J said:

The latest Beeb forcast at 21:25 had Paris and most of France expecting 10-20 cms of OUR SNOW!

However there was also a large area of snow over the entire SE and EA for tomorrow so maybe we will see something a little decent

NAVGEN is usually close to the mark, looking good 1-5cm.. 

[kold weather]

GFSP is very similar to the ECM and a lot further south than the GFS OP, which was I think too far north in the first place.

ICON I feel as good as it is for our region, is quite a bit too far south, maybe almost as much as the GFS is north, but we will see!!

[Froze were the Days]

Latest BBC National forecast looked like they were putting more emphasis on rain before turning to snow in this neck of the woods tomorrow night compared to the Ben Rich forecast at lunchtime today (purely looking at the graphics). Have to say I'm not expecting a lot...even if we get some wet snow laying that will be above my expectation.

[Donna3397]

Just went to BBC forecast, on the app they tell me rain rain/sleet then you go to the slider bar at the bottom that goes through all the weather in your area and it’s a big fat wodge of snow. Make up your mind BBC.

[snowray]

26 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFSP is very similar to the ECM and a lot further south than the GFS OP, which was I think too far north in the first place.

ICON I feel as good as it is for our region, is quite a bit too far south, maybe almost as much as the GFS is north, but we will see!!

Pity about us lot south of the Thames though, hopefully its go that wrong.

Euro4

Hoping the NAVGEM and GFS are right, Arpege poor too.

Edited January 28, 2019 by snowray

[Nqp15hhu]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Pity about us lot south of the Thames though, hopefully its go that wrong.

Euro4

Hoping the NAVGEM and GFS are right, Arpege poor too.

Oh dear. 

[Downpour]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Pity about us lot south of the Thames though, hopefully its go that wrong.

Euro4

Hoping the NAVGEM and GFS are right, Arpege poor too.

The usual finger of snowfall right over Epping Forest and none in town! 

[Kent Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, snowray said:

Pity about us lot south of the Thames though, hopefully its go that wrong.

Euro4

Hoping the NAVGEM and GFS are right, Arpege poor too.

I'm happy with that because the Euro4 was toilet for here last Tuesday, got it wrong!

[snowray]

Since last night it has downgraded the snow on every single run, its so annoying. Hopefully tomorrow things will turn out a lot better.

[Nqp15hhu]

To be fair, it did say we were due a covering of snow last night and we just received rain. So I wouldn't take it as gospel.

Edited January 28, 2019 by Nqp15hhu

[80sWeather]

5 hours ago, CanadianCoops said:

5:30pm and I can still see some blue sky off to the west. That’s a nice feeling though makes me more aware we are inching towards the back end of winter now. Hopefully it’ll be a nice cold night...help cool the ground down even more for the upcoming snow events.

Noticed the lighter sky whilst walking home from work this evening. And it was bloody freezing too, with a frost already forming on all surfaces here in Cambs.

[Sarah Anne]

Do we have any likes of steve murr in kent. I notice that much is regerred to anglia etc or north kent surrey croydon. But i always struggle to find specific reference to us living south and east of ashford area x

[snowray]

13 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

To be fair, it did say we were due a covering of snow last night and we just received rain. So I wouldn't take it as gospel.

Strange I know, the northerly was not very cold at all in the end. These sort of little lows moving down the north sea used to produce snow showers in April, even early May, now it's rain even in late January. Just don't seem to get that cold any more unless its a beast from the east set up and -15c uppers!

[snowrye]

Just now, snowray said:

Strange I know, the northerly was not very cold at all in the end. These sort of little lows moving down the north sea used to produce snow showers in April, even early May, now it's rain even in late January. Just don't seem to get that cold any more unless its a beast from the east set up and -15c uppers!

Melting ice caps maybe

[snowray]

14 minutes ago, 80sWeather said:

Noticed the lighter sky whilst walking home from work this evening. And it was bloody freezing too, with a frost already forming on all surfaces here in Cambs.

-3c/-5c widely already in SE and EA outside of London.

[kold weather]

So the 18z suite are nearly all in, just waiting for the 18z ECM.

GFS OP holding firm on its less favourable track for the south, the ensembles are also broadly going with the op, though more are snowy for the south than the OP.

ICON is way south, maybe too far IMO, though total snow event if right.

GFSP has come a fair way south with the snow with snow for pretty much the whole region, but maybe turning sleety/rainy right at the back end for the far south. It has 5-6cms quite widely from this front on Thursday.

Lets see what the 18z ECM has in store for us tonight!

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Melting ice caps maybe

I was thinking that, and possibly the sea is less cold. Is the North sea milder than usual right now I wonder.

Edited January 28, 2019 by snowray

[ChillyJuju]

Current temp is now the correct side of -5c for us to be cooling down the ground ready for the NW > SE push  so all fingers and toes crossed for some flakes during he coming days!

 

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

So the 18z suite are nearly all in, just waiting for the 18z ECM.

GFS OP holding firm on its less favourable track for the south, the ensembles are also broadly going with the op, though more are snowy for the south than the OP.

ICON is way south, maybe too far IMO, though total snow event if right.

GFSP has come a fair way south with the snow with snow for pretty much the whole region, but maybe turning sleety/rainy right at the back end for the far south. It has 5-6cms quite widely from this front on Thursday.

Lets see what the 18z ECM has in store for us tonight!

Where can I find the ECM 18z Kold?

[Nqp15hhu]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Strange I know, the northerly was not very cold at all in the end. These sort of little lows moving down the north sea used to produce snow showers in April, even early May, now it's rain even in late January. Just don't seem to get that cold any more unless its a beast from the east set up and -15c uppers!

It seems to be quite hard to get snow in Southern England compared to the rest of the British Isles, maybe its the reality of the climate.

[lassie23]

I thought it was supposed to get colder as we head into February, the BBC is adamant that it will be milder next week 

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Where can I find the ECM 18z Kold?

Its part of a paid subscription so not free to hand out unfortunately. I'll call it a night after the 18z ECM, tomorrow is going to be a long day I feel for good or ill.