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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


Blessed Weather

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well the UKMO 12z holds onto a similar output to its 00z output, probable total snow event north of the Thames.

For the south, and especially far south (within 20 miles of the coast), things get really tricky and exceptionally marginal (which it always was going to be!) I think timing will be key, and on that front the UKMO would probably just about be ok. 850hpa temps are also borderline too warm but may just about still be ok at least to start with. 0C isotherm is just south of us but there is a reasonably tight gradient onland until the front pushes on through. Intensity of precipitation if accurate is probably also just about on our side, but again its close. Kinda suspect it looks similar to the ICON in terms of snow but hard to know!

It does look like the ECM 06z which gave a decent snow event even close to the coast, only really the first 5 miles are going to struggle in that solution.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
4 hours ago, jos787 said:

Higher, no lower, no left, no right, who knows at the moment , again all down to lamppost watching, im happy with what ever i get, i just like watching it come down in silence, see im easily pleased , its still beautiful, and natures wonder 

what if you get drizzle instead

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

By the way the 06z ECM (which I know will be out of date soon!) had about 4-6 inches quite widely, even for places relatively far south, having a look at the 1hr snow levels.  very impressive from it, even if it maybe a little overdone based on tonights models so far (the risk is there, but I think the southern extent is overdone).

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
6 minutes ago, Sky High said:

Trying to work out my dewpoint.

My temp is 3.9c

My humidity is 24%

So dewpoint -15c. 

Does that seem right?

That is right calculation wise, but you need to check the RH, that looks way to low.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

That is right calculation wise, but you need to check the RH, that looks way to low.

Thanks Chris

I have an Oregon weather reader from Argos. Well actually my wife does, but what's hers is mine, right? It now says 26% humidity. I wonder why the reading would be wrong and how I can fix it.

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft

5:30pm and I can still see some blue sky off to the west. That’s a nice feeling though makes me more aware we are inching towards the back end of winter now. Hopefully it’ll be a nice cold night...help cool the ground down even more for the upcoming snow events.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex near Ongar
  • Weather Preferences: weather, especially snow, and a lovely frost
  • Location: Essex near Ongar
9 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

what if you get drizzle instead

I wont, but if i do Skol 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

what if you get drizzle instead

The No Drizzle Club will lose a member...?:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
1 minute ago, Sky High said:

Thanks Chris

I have an Oregon weather reader from Argos. Well actually my wife does, but what's hers is mine, right? It now says 26% humidity. I wonder why the reading would be wrong and how I can fix it.

Has it got an inside and outside humidity on it or just outside?

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Posted
  • Location: Leighton buzzard
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/cold, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Leighton buzzard

1.2°C in Leighton buzzard now...dropping like a stone in the last hour fingers crossed everyone sees at least some snow over the next few days signed off work so can watch it all unfold from my bedroom window

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A few posts have been hidden, Please report any problematic post. And remember this is an open forum for uses of all ages..

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

By the way the 06z ECM (which I know will be out of date soon!) had about 4-6 inches quite widely, even for places relatively far south, having a look at the 1hr snow levels.  very impressive from it, even if it maybe a little overdone based on tonights models so far (the risk is there, but I think the southern extent is overdone).

Thanks for the update Kold. Can I ask what day you are talking about, I presume from those totals you mean Thursday? Might be worth us all staying the day or T+ we are talking about within our posts or it may get confusing !

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Posted
  • Location: Chelsfield, Orpington (Kent / SE London) - 115m ASL
  • Location: Chelsfield, Orpington (Kent / SE London) - 115m ASL

Just had an e-mail from Southeastern trains warning of possibly disruption on / from Thursday:

Advanced severe weather alert

Possible Winter Weather Timetable from Thursday

Hello,

We’re emailing to let you know in advance that due to forecast bad weather, we may need to run a Winter Weather Timetable from Thursday 31 January. 

We’ll confirm this at least 24 hours in advance of the change and will send you another email to let you know.

Edited by EWS
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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk

Looking forward to Thursday....

can anyone help me out, is Thursday a daytime or evening time event?.

its my son’s 8th birthday Thursday so wondering if I need to possible prepare myself for a non school day or if it will be ok until he’s home!. Haven’t broken it to him as yet that he may see snow on his birthday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
1 minute ago, EWS said:

Just had an e-mail from Southeastern trains warning of possibly disruption on / from Thursday:

Advanced severe weather alert

Possible Winter Weather Timetable from Thursday

Hello,

We’re emailing to let you know in advance that due to forecast bad weather, we may need to run a Winter Weather Timetable from Thursday 31 January. 

We’ll confirm this at least 24 hours in advance of the change and will send you another email to let you know.

Sounds like they know more then we do about Thursday.. maybe tomorrow night really is just a taste of what's to come!

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
2 hours ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Bank but that line of freezing rain and sleet is too close for comfort 

Snow on freezing rain, had that in march, everyone coped with the ice, then it changed to snow, and suddenly you couldn't drive anywhere, slippery as hell. If that's what's coming, it defo warrants a warning.

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Impressive surface cold already in the SE ( impressive relative to the mediocre flow & depth of cold vis a vee a plain Jane NW airmass )

Temp as below @512PM

A2037127-52D2-4F07-9BFF-EDE442205FCC.thumb.jpeg.dac870805888bb4794c66254375b97ef.jpeg

 

Is that impressive? We had a high of 1.5c a few days ago.

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

Maybe give the outside sensor a clean or a blow out, maybe something got in there, i would say if your temps match other stations (which they do) and your dps have looked ok before, then a sensor issue, pain in the backside now though.

@Sky High

Edited by Chris101
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
4 minutes ago, masked_firefly said:

Looking forward to Thursday....

can anyone help me out, is Thursday a daytime or evening time event?.

its my son’s 8th birthday Thursday so wondering if I need to possible prepare myself for a non school day or if it will be ok until he’s home!. Haven’t broken it to him as yet that he may see snow on his birthday. 

I think it's an afternoon/early evening event. You might have to pick him up early if the school shuts.

Now in my day... haha

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Maybe give the outside sensor a clean or a blow out, maybe something got in there, i would say if your temps match other stations (which they do) and your dps have looked ok before, then a sensor issue, pain in the backside now though.

@Sky High

Cheers, I'll have a go at that tomorrow morning.

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