SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Uxbridge90]

HIRLAM 12z still looks pretty good for 2-3 hours for most of us tomorrow evening, 

[Mark Bayley]

Perhaps i was too pessimistic earlier. Taking NW London, an all snow event on the ICON 12z, and dare i suggest all snow on the 12z GFS, perhaps turning sleety on the back edge (even fthose south of the M4 get a decent period of snow). I still think the sweet spot will be in the Midlands, although the trend is our friend wrt to an all snow event across most of the SE (away from the coasts) 

 

For Thursday*

Edited January 28, 2019 by Mark Bayley

[Froze were the Days]

35 minutes ago, yamkin said:

 

Well that's cursed that then!...

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Well I’ve seen loads of seagulls lately and my Czech Mum says it’s going to snow and February will be very cold. OMG OMG OMG we’re gonna get buried!!!

Okay but what about here in good ol' blighty!

[Coopsy]

Right - assignment just submitted for my diploma. Now I can focus on the weather. Did someone say snow? ️ 

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

Perhaps i was too pessimistic earlier. Taking NW London, an all snow event on the ICON 12z, and dare i suggest all snow on the 12z GFS, perhaps turning sleety on the back edge (even fthose south of the M4 get a decent period of snow). I still think the sweet spot will be in the Midlands, although the trend is our friend wrt to an all snow event across most of the SE (away from the coasts) 

 

For Thursday*

Its uncanny how similarly this is evolving like the Jan 2013 event/. Orginally the models had a N event with the main snow from the Midlands northwards/ Then the models shifted the low and elongated it to the point where it became a southern and Midlands event, with Wales jackpot.

[Mark Bayley]

Just now, kold weather said:

Its uncanny how similarly this is evolving like the Jan 2013 event/. Orginally the models had a N event with the main snow from the Midlands northwards/ Then the models shifted the low and elongated it to the point where it became a southern and Midlands event, with Wales jackpot.

Indeed - as you know I've been on this forum for over 10 years (nearly all of them in the north Midlands). I have never known lows / precipitation trend north in these situations. Many times the models show decent snow events for it to shift south (places like Peterborough being the sweet spots), or even missing the UK entirely!

[Dami]

what gets me if i had said up yours and done the finger my post would of been deleted. No offense but it's very much one rule for one. Such a shame my 'i'm back' posts don't generate 20 likes either.

I am not being down beat on my no snow posts i am being sensible. If I wake up to white then its a bonus and if i don't then i wasn't expecting. This event for me isn't 100% in stone, and I shall be the same down beat come summer and it's thunderstorms on the cards. 

Why should I shout loudly from the roof tops just to make this thread happier? I can't generate weather to please no more than all the folks on the mod thread. 

 

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Polar Maritime
Report said post then.

[kold weather]

GFSP slightly slower with this system. That is a good thing for us as the slower it can be to arrive the later into the afternoon it will be and therefore temperatures will be working on our side to an extent (or at least helping to counteract the increasing temperatures aloft to a degree.) which may just help turn places the right side of marginal in such a set-up, where as a 1-2pm hit maybe sleety stuff. I saw this myself first hand last week.

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFSP slightly slower with this system. That is a good thing for us as the slower it can be to arrive the later into the afternoon it will be and therefore temperatures will be working on our side to an extent (or at least helping to counteract the increasing temperatures aloft to a degree.) which may just help turn places the right side of marginal in such a set-up, where as a 1-2pm hit maybe sleety stuff. I saw this myself first hand last week.

The Icon is looking keen for a decent snow event for the SE on Thursday evening. 

Another 50 mile adjustment south and are we suddenly the place to be? 

[kold weather]

Snow depths of roughly 4-6cms even down towards the coasts for our area on Thursday on the latest 12z GFSP. Good run so far from it for us!

RD - certainly the home counties would be looking a pretty solid bet if there are any more decent shifts southwards. I think any more shifts will be a little more subtle, may even slightly bounce back north due to overcorrecting, though obviously if it stays south or where it currently is, then grand!

Edited January 28, 2019 by kold weather

[Coopsy]

2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

The Icon is looking keen for a decent snow event for the SE on Thursday evening. 

Another 50 mile adjustment south and are we suddenly the place to be? 

Not out of the realms of possibilities IMO 

[CSC]

It is much colder than expected here on the South Coast. It is 0.5c already at coming up to 5pm. It was expected to be 4ºC..

Does this have an impact for tomorrow?...

[Matty88]

I'm getting the sense that tomorrow is looking good for a decent 1-2 hour spell of moderate snow for most in the evening/night hours. The 12z has slightly beefed up the front, but I sense further adjustments could be made in the next run. Thursday is looking tasty - albeit not looking like an 'epic' fall but certainly a 2-3 inch event as it stands. 

On the negative side - there is a sense of bullying going on in here which I hope the mods stamp out/delete certain posts responsible, this forum is an open place for all - there a few in here that feel they 'own the place'. Absolutely not on. 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well.. 

We not currently starring down the barrel of an Atlantic onslaught. 

As predicted end of Jan beginning of Feb turning colder (already is) 

Snow prospects for many of us over the coming days.. Not just our part of the island 

Second winter in a row that a "delayed" winter.. 

Is seasons shifting associated with climate change? 

Can we expect our seasons to move around further? 

 

[Sky High]

Just looking on the forecast page. There's a prediction of sleet turning to snow at 6am and staying as snow through to midnight. Where did that come from? 

This is for Saturday, sorry.

Edited January 28, 2019 by Sky High

[Nqp15hhu]

8 minutes ago, CSC said:

It is much colder than expected here on the South Coast. It is 0.5c already at coming up to 5pm. It was expected to be 4ºC..

Does this have an impact for tomorrow?...

Says its 4/5c on Xcweather.

[CSC]

Just now, Nqp15hhu said:

Says its 4/5c on Xcweather.

Far South it is already close to freezing..

[Snow Queen one]

You can just about make out it's 2.5 on my car thermometre in Coxheath kent

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Temps roughly an hour ago so should be dropping like a stone now... 

[SMU]

Impressive surface cold already in the SE ( impressive relative to the mediocre flow & depth of cold vis a vee a plain Jane NW airmass )

Temp as below @512PM

 

[SnowBungle]

Enthusiastic lurker and reader, very rare poster. 

I was last being nosey here a couple of days ago, when talks of 6-8” of snow widespread across the SE was being touted in the ‘reliable’.

Today’s post seem to suggest these expectations have been somewhat downgraded to a couple of cms if lucky? Is that th gist of things?

 

Realistically, what is in the cards for us tomorrow night? And how does it compare with the current ideas of Thursday’s snow forecast?

 

[steveinsussex]

Go check out the real feel temps for northern USA the next couple of days...

 

minneapolis is -63 tomorrow !

[Methuselah]

Dry and clear, 1.3C...Tonight's going to be a cold one!

[Sky High]

Trying to work out my dewpoint.

My temp is 3.9c

My humidity is 24%

So dewpoint -15c. 

Does that seem right?