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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


Blessed Weather

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Storm That Lasts 3 Days
  • Location: Brighton

I am still not convinced tbh. I live in Brighton and I don't expect to see lying snow. So many times we got excited and nothing happened. I expect to see some flurries Wednesday morning, then even before noon it will turn either rain or gonna be sunny.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
49 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Forgive the terrible map, it's surprisingly hard to find a map that shows the SE and East Anglia

istockphoto-670756860-1024x1024.thumb.png.58e62442c7ffbebdfa82dc5e3922ad62.png

Red zone has highest potential for seeing an all snow event - Elsewhere likely to see rain > snow.

South coast likely to see falling snow with intensity/any altitude but rain/sleety/snow mix more likely so lowered accumulating snowfall here. Red zone 3-4cm widely, 6-10cm with any higher ground/heavier bursts.

FAX chart shows the front pivoting a little over our region which could give an hour or two of extra snowfall, worth watching!

FAX.thumb.gif.72d2ea833c9dff553b52557e746e04d6.gif

iStock just out of the sweet spot dammit

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, turkishfella said:

I am still not convinced tbh. I live in Brighton and I don't expect to see lying snow. So many times we got excited and nothing happened. I expect to see some flurries Wednesday morning, then even before noon it will turn either rain or gonna be sunny.

You're really on the edge of anything for this. I am in Medway almost dead central but am still not holding our much hope. We always have the advantage here of it picking up something off the Thames as it crosses over but I am still waiting for a real snow event that doesn't come from the East.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, Let_it_snow said:

Yeah my Wife who is in Norwich said the same thing. Started snowing at about 8am with a few 5 or 10 min flurrys of big flakes. No rain mixed in whatsoever.

FWIW, it's alternating between rain and almost snow, down here...a mere 18 miles' SE of Norwich.

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
10 minutes ago, throwoff said:

You're really on the edge of anything for this. I am in Medway almost dead central but am still not holding our much hope. We always have the advantage here of it picking up something off the Thames as it crosses over but I am still waiting for a real snow event that doesn't come from the East.

Last Tuesday proved that, I couldn't believe how Gravesend was reporting fat snowflakes yet nothing in Medway.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon-ish
  • Location: Croydon-ish

Very confused here, we are travelling from Croydon to Norwich on Friday morning and then from Norwich to Stanstead Saturday morning for a flight.

Does anybody have any idea whether we could get anything to disrupt travel plans.

Thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire

I think most need to try and bank on the bulk of precipitation arriving after dark for it to really have a chance of sticking. As for the precipitation itself - its looking extremely marginal in nature and this will also play true for snowfall by the looks of things - there are hints of some additional features coming into play that could pep up the precipitation. 

I think a few may well be disappointed tomorrow but on the other hand a few may be surprised. It'll depend very much on the location and intensity of any precipitation 

It's going to be a fascinating day of weather... I like those sort of days! Gearing myself up for the worst at the moment (ie light snizzle that doesn't stick!!)... 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
2 minutes ago, Isabellesnanny said:

Very confused here, we are travelling from Croydon to Norwich on Friday morning and then from Norwich to Stanstead Saturday morning for a flight.

Does anybody have any idea whether we could get anything to disrupt travel plans.

Thanks

Looks like your trip to Norwich on Friday morning could be a snowy one... but my advise is to keep updated. There's certainly a medium percentage probability of 2-3 inches of snow Thursday night/Friday morning and I would think Norwich could be in that bracket 

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
9 minutes ago, Isabellesnanny said:

Very confused here, we are travelling from Croydon to Norwich on Friday morning and then from Norwich to Stanstead Saturday morning for a flight.

Does anybody have any idea whether we could get anything to disrupt travel plans.

Thanks

We can hardly be sure of tomorrow and Wednesday, let alone Friday 

Early hours of Saturday looks messy!

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

Hmmm, not holding out much hope for tomorrow night into Weds morning to be honest.

As others have said, all very marginal and most will see rain to snow for a while. Despite the myth that snow cannot stick after rain, I have seen this happen many times, so there is a chance some of us will have a slushy covering for a while late Tuesday into Weds morning. Not ideal, we all want nice powder but after this horrific winter so far, we have to take what we can get. Those further North & West in our region best placed for half decent accumulation I feel.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex near Ongar
  • Weather Preferences: weather, especially snow, and a lovely frost
  • Location: Essex near Ongar

All down to lamppost watching, as i dont have lampposts where i live, its a case of waving my arm outside my back door for my security light, so now called security light watching, doesnt have the same ring to it though , im getting snow anyway, so im happy, 

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

At the end of the day the signs are good, every front and trough that crosses the UK has lots of fluctuations and divergences from what was forecast, little waves and pivots, sudden intensifications of certain areas.

The thing is that most of the year this makes no difference to us whatsoever and to a certain extent we don't even notice that we got a fair bit more or less rain than was forecast or it rained for 2 hours longer than they said.

Now when that precipitation leaves a deposit behind that we can see all those fluctuations come into play a whole lot more, rest assured the guys at meto will be trying madly to work as much detail as they can to add in to the model, but it wont be easy for them, like i say, the most of the year they really don't have to worry about these minor details, it just ends up with you saying it was meant to stay clear till lunch but its raining already.

How many times a year does anyone notice that they were forecast 4.6mm of rain but actually got 6.0mm?

Edited by Chris101
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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
3 minutes ago, jos787 said:

All down to lamppost watching, as i dont have lampposts where i live, its a case of waving my arm outside my back door for my security light, so now called security light watching, doesnt have the same ring to it though , im getting snow anyway, so im happy, 

A rechargeable work light comes in very handy 

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
33 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

iStock just out of the sweet spot dammit

Can you adjust that a little East and South please. Central London more at risk than Steve Murrs downs location?!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex near Ongar
  • Weather Preferences: weather, especially snow, and a lovely frost
  • Location: Essex near Ongar
1 minute ago, Kent Blizzard said:

A rechargeable work light comes in very handy 

very true, but  a bit of pity for me wouldnt go a miss, as i have to stick both feet out side my back door and freeze, mines a halogen light so a  747 could land, as i will be out there waving my hand constantly , mind you if i did i would die happily covered in snow , no embalming necessary 

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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London

Let's see what happens tomorrow night, certainly not without interest. Not hugely bothered as it's still only late January so plenty of winter still to go. The overall pattern is what the MET have been saying for weeks now and they are still going for February E/NE. 

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Honestly, I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed. I'm not quite sure what people are looking at on the models to be ramping it up so much. Looks to be a mildly snowy event to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

ECM ensembles for Thursday are broadly still suggesting about 1-2 inches for areas about 20 miles north of the south coast. Quite a sharp cutoff though from there to rain.

However there is still a huge amount of uncertainty about Thursday, and everything from heavy rain only, right through to 6-8 inches even to the coast is still on the table. The mean though is what was suggested above, and actually very similar to the 06z ICON.

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
7 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Honestly, I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed. I'm not quite sure what people are looking at on the models to be ramping it up so much. Looks to be a mildly snowy event to me.

Me neither

 

euro4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
7 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Honestly, I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed. I'm not quite sure what people are looking at on the models to be ramping it up so much. Looks to be a mildly snowy event to me.

Not seen anyone ramp. Most understand risk of disruption lower, amounts lower but still something to keep eye on.

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

The timing is going to be crucial, we don't want the precipitation wasted too early ...Rush hour might surprise a few tomorrow...!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

I too am not getting my hopes up. Living in zone 4 (Harrow) also seems to impact snow chances (UHI). Current prediction for is rain followed by snow tomorrow night leading to a cm or two Wednesday morning. This melting by afternoon. For Thursday moderate to heavy leading edge snow. Soon turning to rain washing away any deposits. Am hopefully proved wrong! Would like to be in central and Southern Midlands. 

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