SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Kent Blizzard]

14 minutes ago, throwoff said:

This could be the make or break week of the winter, heres hoping!

WAIT....WE always have 10 Days ahead to look forward too 

[Bedfordblues73]

Hmm , not much expected in the way of snow down here on Tuesday it seems , let’s hope we can get a good covering later in the week .

[Sky High]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think a very good shot unless the GFS is correct with the angle of the front.

ICON  06z has also made the front a little more active this time around compared to the 00z run with broadly 2-4cms forecasted in this region, with a peak at 5-6cms in local spots.

Thanks mate. We didn't do so well out of the last lot. Snowed but never settled. So fingers crossed.

[kold weather]

I'll put my neck on the line here. I think we haven't finished seeing adjustments on that front. ICON 06z is closest to my thoughts, and the ECM is close as well. But I think there is some southward adjustments to come still.

Probably not going to make a huge difference to me personally. I'm off work again the next few days (still haven't shaken this illness and so I'm living off a few hours of sleep at night at the moment) so I can watch it but I think this is more interesting for places further north.

[Kent Blizzard]

1 minute ago, Let_it_snow said:

Been snowing on and off in my location all morning. Was not expecting anything today.  Im in Wymondham today.

Which just goes to show, Anything could happen, Anything could happen Anything could happen Anything could happen, Anything could happen,Anything could happen, Anything could.....

Song in that somewhere 

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'll put my neck on the line here. I think we haven't finished seeing adjustments on that front. ICON 06z is closest to my thoughts, and the ECM is close as well. But I think there is some southward adjustments to come still.

Probably not going to make a huge difference to me personally. I'm off work again the next few days (still haven't shaken this illness and so I'm living off a few hours of sleep at night at the moment) so I can watch it but I think this is more interesting for places further north.

You sure you're ill or do you just want to check weather models?

[kold weather]

ICON goes for 5-10cms for this region, cutoff point from snow-rain is about 20 miles north of the coast. I'd be right on the southern boundary, though I'm at 300ft so that may slightly help. Broadly similar distribution as the 00z ECM, maybe a touch south.

Some high precip rates as well from the ICON worth noting, rush hour would be a problem if it was right.

Edited January 28, 2019 by kold weather

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

ICON goes for 5-10cms for this region, cutoff point from snow-rain is about 20 miles north of the coast. I'd be right on the southern boundary, though I'm at 300ft so that may slightly help.

Some high precip rates as well from the ICON worth noting, rush hour would be a problem if it was right.

What about Essex?

[snow raven]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

ICON goes for 5-10cms for this region, cutoff point from snow-rain is about 20 miles north of the coast. I'd be right on the southern boundary, though I'm at 300ft so that may slightly help.

Some high precip rates as well from the ICON worth noting, rush hour would be a problem if it was right.

Is this tomorrows potential or Thursdays?

[kold weather]

Just now, snow raven said:

Is this tomorrows potential or Thursdays?

Thursdsay. ICON 06z went for 2-4cms broadly with a jackpot around 6cms this run, which was an upgrade on the 00z.

[PLANET THANET]

I see on the met office site it has us down for no snow now on either tues/wed and saturday but just the odd sleet shower, oh well it had to happen, it was too good to be true

[weathergeek]

15 minutes ago, Icebox said:

And now the rest of the week looks like that may go a bit pear shaped too...

The way our luck has gone this winter, you just know we are going to end up with a cool spring under a constant chilly easterly... 2 months too late! 

That's what I keep worrying about, that we'll have a really chilly Spring just as I'm wanting some lovely warm sun which will also help me get over this "winter of discontent", lol!!xx

[kold weather]

Downgrade on the 06z GFS for Tuesday, front fizzles out even quicker on this run as a frontal feature gives rain to the SE ahead of the front we were watching. Would still be some snow but probably not worth measuring if the GFS is right.

However, that is in contrast to other models which haven't yet shown that trend...for example the ICON only shows very slight weakening so a chance the GFS is overdoing that.

Edited January 28, 2019 by kold weather

[Nqp15hhu]

48 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Few flakes of snow about in East Anglia according to the radar, an interesting morning for you folk

It's not snowing here. It rained all night.

[Met4Cast]

Please.. just a little further South..

[Nqp15hhu]

24 minutes ago, Let_it_snow said:

Been snowing on and off in my location all morning. Was not expecting anything today.  Im in Wymondham today.

What? It's pure rain in Norwich with a temp of 1c.

[Dami]

22 hours ago, Dami said:

I'm sitting on the fence. last time radars, maps, whatevers said i had snow. And I got freezing rain. 

This^. 

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Nqp15hhu said:

What? It's pure rain in Norwich with a temp of 1c.

You're probably being effected by temperatures being moderated by the North Sea 

[Kent Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

It's not snowing here. It rained all night.

Reports of a few flakes falling slightly South of you in Thorndon?

[Nqp15hhu]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

You're probably being effected by temperatures being moderated by the North Sea 

We have the NW wind. I think the atmosphere is just saturated.

[Laurence Hill]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Please.. just a little further South..

Daniel, if you live in Strood, why would you want that feature to go south?  Really interested to know, assume your Strood is just east of London.

Edited January 28, 2019 by Sharpedge

[Alpine glow]

Brighton is under yellow warning today, it wasn’t yesterday. I’m not really expecting much but still looking forward to watching the lamppost. Just in case!

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Sharpedge said:

Daniel, if you live in Strood, why would you want that feature to go south?  Really interested to know, assume your Strood is just east of London.

So that it brings this region into the "sweet spot". Largest accumulations still look likely to be well North of here 

[lottiekent]

Still hoping for something tomorrow night here with the elevation I have, time will tell as always!

[stainesbloke]

Tuesday and into Wednesday is looking less exciting on the latest model output for our region with a thin slushy covering a more likely outcome. Saying that, last Tuesday gave many of us a wonderful surprise snowfall, so who knows.