SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[kold weather]

11 minutes ago, Nick F said:

12z UKMO-G and updated faxes agree on a slower clearance of the France low and occluded front/trough over UK compared to other models, this would bring more prolonged snowfall , be interesting to see if the UKMO is more on the money

T+60

T+72

 

Very interesting to see the UKMO haven't modified their output to reflect the other models, so they clearly have some confidence. I'm wondering whether or not the EURO4 output has also increased their confidence in that forecast, as it was a mirror image of the UKMO.

[CSC]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Very dependent on how heavy snow will be, as likely to start off rain/sleet which will make ground wet and light snow would struggle to settle when it likely does turn to snow as cold air undercuts occluded front, if snow is moderate to occasional heavy could see 1-5cm lower elevations inland, more over N and S Downs, High Weald, Chilterns, etc. Think low coastal areas more likely to see rain/sleet for longer or throughout though. All an educated guess though, now casting the key in such marginal situations!

very interesting times indeed. Brighton is a geographical area almost impossible to forecast. I remember many snow events we have had where it was forecast to be rain but it is far enough to east to sometimes remain very cold.

METO have heavy snow for the coast here so nowcasting seems the only way to find out! Could be 4 inches, could be less or could be nothing!

[snowray]

GFS 18z coming out and the low is further north again!

PPN looking good too

Edited January 27, 2019 by snowray

[Hammer]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

GFS 18z coming out and the low is further north again!

I think thats a tad south from 12z. Or is at T42.

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, Hammer said:

I think thats a tad south from 12z. Or is at T42.

Yes it starts slightly further north then drops slightly south of the 12z. Snow moving through more quickly too.

I think I'll stick with the UKMO and EURO4 for now.

Edited January 27, 2019 by snowray

[Nick F]

12 EC for 6pm Tues, midnight and 6am Weds. Nowt too heavy generally, apart from Essex and Suffolk coastal areas. Again, not to taken literally in what is a dynamic and fluid situation liable to change.

 

[Froze were the Days]

39 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I agree that there is a bullying culture that goes on in there, but, in my opinion, you did massively mild ramp - which would be fine if the thread was called, hunt for mild, it doesn't mean that you should not be allowed to call mild when you see it, but even the 240 chart, still had a pocket of -4c uppers over England, and the mean Max temps on the eps were still around 6c on the London 0z graph, so although i am yet to be completely convinced of any Scandinavian high or Icelandic high, or any other pattern likely to bring a big freeze, there is nothing mild and certainly nothing very mild being signalled in the extended range, if you had said that there is a signal for a return to near average temperatures then that would have been fine.

Anyway, that isn't the reason i came onto this thread, it was to wish you all luck for snow on Tuesday.

No that's okay but I've often looked at synoptic charts (since early 80's) without looking at upper temperatures and that generally tells me all I need to know other than inversion cold - if you look at most recent day 9/10 ecm det runs you can see there has been a trend for heights to grow towards western Iberia (also stated by the brave Jason M), okay not mild as you say but the possibility of trending mild. Too many disciples in there following their messiahs and everything they say, don't get me wrong there are some good posters (Steve Sussex, Mr Murr, Bluearmy, Catacol, Nick F) but everybody is falible.

[Methuselah]

The MAD thread's getting like The Golden Shot: up a bit, left a bit, down a bit, right a bit, stop, start...

[CSC]

GFS 18z brings the possibility of more snow for the S and SE for WED rush hour after the initial event Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could cause some disruption and something to look out for and keep a close eye on too!

[username home]

2 minutes ago, CSC said:

GFS 18z brings the possibility of more snow for the S and SE for WED rush hour after the initial event Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could cause some disruption and something to look out for and keep a close eye on too!

Thursday and Friday will be more interesting. With more on Saturday...

[Weathizard]

Mod thread cracks me up, all the moaning northerners then the 18z is good for them and rubbish for the further  south and it’s a complete turn around suddenly they don’t care about people being IMBY.

Northern monkeys

Edited January 27, 2019 by Weathizard

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, Delka said:

Damaging strong winds out there currently, been going for hours with trees down on a few local roads and power outages being reported in a village nearby..  but worst of all, it's bin night and our bin has blown over  

at least your bin got emptied early, joking aside my fence was blown down last night

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

at least your bin got emptied early, joking aside my fence was blown down last night

Wow , winds up to 4 mph last night

[lassie23]

Just now, Mokidugway said:

Wow , winds up to 4 mph last night

lol how is the summery weather, enjoying your holiday

[Snow Queen one]

Just now, CSC said:

GFS 18z brings the possibility of more snow for the S and SE for WED rush hour after the initial event Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could cause some disruption and something to look out for and keep a close eye on too!

I like this.  Just been in mad thread and according to cherry picked charts you could be forgiven thinking us in the south/se will miss out and get rain. I do feel sorry for newbies looking at that thread.

[southbank]

What’s really is the elephant in the room is that despite millions upon millions spent on computer model driven programs we still can’t say with any high percent of confidence where / how much / when anyone may see snow Tuesday/Wednesday 

[Badgers01]

 

2 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

I like this.  Just been in mad thread and according to cherry picked charts you could be forgiven thinking us in the south/se will miss out and get rain. I do feel sorry for newbies looking at that thread.

it is showing accumulations of <1cm Wed afternoon so perhaps just a few flakes in the wind !

[chionomaniac]

Hmm. I’m not convinced still on tuesday nights outlook. If the UKMO is correct then there could be enough snow to make a snowman, otherwise a lot of us may see rain followed by wet snow that just about sticks before the morning comes and it is all gone lunchtime. I think that a bigger surprise may come from Thursday to Saturday especially if the second low is weaker and slides south more with a negative tilt. Those hoping for snowmaggedon come Wednesday morning could be disappointed unless you live in places like Biggin hill, crowbough, Reigate hill or on top of the downs.

[steveinsussex]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Hmm. I’m not convinced still on tuesday nights outlook. If the UKMO is correct then there could be enough snow to make a snowman, otherwise a lot of us may see rain followed by wet snow that just about sticks before the morning comes and it is all gone lunchtime. I think that a bigger surprise may come from Thursday to Saturday especially if the second low is weaker and slides south more with a negative tilt. Those hoping for snowmaggedon come Wednesday morning could be disappointed unless you live in places like Biggin hill, crowbough, Reigate hill or on top of the downs.

have to agree, so many factors come into play, despite what some of the rampers will say

Edited January 27, 2019 by steveinsussex

[Jayces]

14 minutes ago, southbank said:

What’s really is the elephant in the room is that despite millions upon millions spent on computer model driven programs we still can’t say with any high percent of confidence where / how much / when anyone may see snow Tuesday/Wednesday 

Spot on. There was an 80% chance of an Easterly this weekend but instead we've had a mild blip much to even the experts on here surprise I think. My years on this great forum have taught me one thing, wintry weather especially snow can only be forecast accurately a few hours out, maybe 12 - 24 but beyond that I never take what's being said too seriously!

Chionomaniac is right unfortunately and it's always the way with the situations the marginality and the rain to snow / snow to rain situation could mean expectations not met come Wednesday or equally a nice surprise.

I'd like to say I've stopped waking up in the middle of the night to check outside when snow night be falling but I still do even at nearly 50 years old but the disappointment is always a downer when there's nothing. Of course on the plus side when there's loads is great!

Edited January 27, 2019 by Jayces

[Nqp15hhu]

Wish someone would make a diagram of predicted snow. I don't trust the Met Office, they're not likely to produce a map of realistic predicted snowfall. 

[lassie23]

just looked in the model waffle discussion thread and the low is too far north and too far south and not low enough for snow lol

[Badgers01]

3 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Wish someone would make a diagram of predicted snow. I don't trust the Met Office, they're not likely to produce a map of realistic predicted snowfall. 

they are probably best placed to - you trust them less than some of the rampers on here ??

Edited January 27, 2019 by Badgers01

[chionomaniac]

4 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

have to agree, so many factors come into play, despite what some of the rampers will say

Yes. I’ll be very surprised if I am not able to get to work in East Grinstead on Wednesday despite having to drive through Turners Hill. But I will have my winter gear in the car because you never know!

[Snow Queen one]

Just now, Nqp15hhu said:

Wish someone would make a diagram of predicted snow. I don't trust the Met Office, they're not likely to produce a map of realistic predicted snowfall. 

No one can make a realistic map of predicted snow fall.  It's a hard thing to predict and depends on so many things.  I would love some snow on weds though.