SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

What do you expect when you say this:

Well the models are firming up on becoming mild to very mild in day 10 and beyond

How many models go out to day 10?
How many of them show cross-model agreement at day 10?

At the moment, it's impossible to get cross-model agreement past day 2.

You asked for that one i'm afraid.

He came in here to escape

[Tom Jarvis]

5 minutes ago, jos787 said:

Ah who remembers the snow cup a few years ago, ?now that was fun , can't remember who did all the hard work keeping records, I remember going outside with my tape measure and taking a photo, and bloody froze and still lost , plus think there was cheating going on, how naughty 

Yes I remember nearly made it into the final 

[Chris101]

E4 Day after Tomorrow if anyone fancies it

[Dami]

There is no need to be rude in any thread.

[snowrye]

Why do I have an impending feeling of doom

[Badgers01]

8 minutes ago, CSC said:

Nothing is impossible when it comes to the weather!

Actually meteorology is a science and there is an awful lot that actually is impossible with the weather! 

[snowray]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I mentioned the possibility of det runs being more consistent showing mild towards day 9/10 and !!!!!!!...all hell let lose towards me :)...unless you back up your thoughts with numerous ensembles, clusters or anomaly charts your deemed as an idiot which to be honest after this fatigue ridden winter I couldn't be bothered...as said it's not as if many in there haven't backed up there thoughts and still been wrong (last week or so).

That was a very silly thing to do in there, and you mentioned the M word god forbid what do you expect. I mean you do love to antagonise them don't you.

[CSC]

Just now, Badgers01 said:

Actually meteorology is a science and there is an awful lot that actually is impossible with the weather! 

Okay okay! It was a broad statement 

[SMU]

Temps finally on the way down here after a 4 hour period of being stationary-

Skies clearing temps 3.3C now.

[Nqp15hhu]

Still 4c and raining but dew point now down to 0c.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Nqp15hhu

[lassie23]

16 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I mentioned the possibility of det runs being more consistent showing mild towards day 9/10 and !!!!!!!...all hell let lose towards me :)...unless you back up your thoughts with numerous ensembles, clusters or anomaly charts your deemed as an idiot which to be honest after this fatigue ridden winter I couldn't be bothered...as said it's not as if many in there haven't backed up there thoughts and still been wrong (last week or so).

too many pickers in there

[Badgers01]

7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

too many pickers in there

Don’t forget we have to have a few bites of that cherry first - doh ! 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Evening all,

Just wanted to take the liberty of posting up a couple of extracts, from the telephone conversations I had with local Meteorologist, Ian Currie, a few weeks ago.

On 5th January, Mr.Currie, stated the following: I've highlighted the salient parts of the conversation:

Quote:

"Ian is fully expecting a cold second half of Winter. Like some of the Forecast Models seem to be suggesting, the wintry weather will be coming from the North. He did state that it will probably take a few bites of the cherry, for this to happen. He suggests around the 20th/21st Jan. will be the timescale, to look out for. He expects a S.E. diving low, to be the catalyst for opening the floodgates to the North and expects the flow to eventually turn to the N.E".

On 13th January, Ian stated the following:

Quote:

"As stated last weekend, he doesn't envisage a strong Greenland block but a strong ridge from a mid-Atlantic High, allied to lows tracking on a N.W/S.E. axis, after a few glancing blows that an Arctic sourced Northerly is likely to be on the menu, as we enter the last week of January, the flow may then veer towards the N.E, for a while. Ian is not expecting a prolonged "freeze up" but cold spells punctuated by milder interludes. He does expect this sort of regime to last through February and perhaps into March, too. He expects the flow to be mainly from the North but that there was a chance that a Scandinavian High could develop, as we go through February, although no guarantee. Ian did note that there had been a lot of Northerly winds over Scandinavia and quite a bit of snow and some very deep low pressure at times, in the Norwegian Sea.  This build up of snow and a very cold region could well help to facilitate the build up of High Pressure over Scandinavia, as we enter the final month of Winter." 

I just wanted to review, Mr.Currie's thoughts.

Although we havn't seen anything particularly wintry yet, we do seem to be on the cusp of something, more Seasonal.

I do think Ian was visualising a more direct, Northerly. He's seemed to have been correct with his, a "few bites of the cherry" comment, though!!

He certainly seems to be correct in his assumption that he didn't foresee a strong block over Greenland and that an Arctic flow, will come off the back of a strong mid-Atlantic ridge. Even though Tues/Weds "runner", is approaching from the West, it is being fuelled by Arctic air, flooding down from the North. He's been a bit out with his dates of 20th/21st Jan, being the timescale when the definitive pattern change would come. One could argue that the failed Northerly around that time, has helped back the pattern westward enough (especially loosening the grip of the Azores High, somewhat.), to facilitate the promised, more Wintry spell we are about to receive, hopefully!!  

And the Forecast Models seem to be "sniffing out" some height rises over Scandinavia but perhaps a bit earlier than Mr.Currie, envisaged though. Although,  he did state of course that this kind of scenario, in his opinion, wasn't guaranteed.

Still at this moment in time, I think Ian's thoughts have been pretty accurate.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

Edited January 27, 2019 by TomSE12

[snowray]

40 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m not getting excited yet I’ll wait for 00z UKMO people talking about 10-20cm for now expect nothing a few CM at most seems fairly good for a lot of us. Sweet spot intensity probably will brush coast.

Met Office site have rain now on Tuesday evening but have increased the intensity of snow, including all of the London area, from after midnight to 9am Wednesday with heavy snow symbols, thats nine hours of heavy snow. This scenario would put the low even further north than the fax charts surely?

Will the warning go orange tomorrow I wonder?

[Mark wheeler]

19 minutes ago, snowray said:

That was a very silly thing to do in there, and you mentioned the M word god forbid what do you expect. I mean you do love to antagonise them don't you.

MMMM.  Mild ssshhhhhh

[JennyJane1]

53 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

 in excess of 20 feet possible

Those 5 goats coming back then?

[Milocation]

Oh my, this must be where all of the civilised folk have fled to! Reading the mad thread reminds me of being back at primary school . I'm looking forward to the next few days although there is a large amount of uncertainty on the events to come.

I think that's logical @snowray which means things have a chance of getting that bit more interesting! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

38 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I mentioned the possibility of det runs being more consistent showing mild towards day 9/10 and !!!!!!!...all hell let lose towards me :)...unless you back up your thoughts with numerous ensembles, clusters or anomaly charts your deemed as an idiot which to be honest after this fatigue ridden winter I couldn't be bothered...as said it's not as if many in there haven't backed up there thoughts and still been wrong (last week or so).

eh? not bad, got you 42 'likes' rep points, and counting possibly, not many members get 42 rep points for a post

[lassie23]

I dare anyone to go in the mod thread and post AT LEAST IT WILL BE MILD

[Tom Quintavalle]

24 minutes ago, jright35 said:

It was Tom who carried this out

Yes, I'm afraid I have to own up to the ill-fated, Snow Depth Cup, when I was TOMSE20!! After LOTTIEKENT/SNOWBOB, dead-heated in the inaugural running of the event, it then seemed to jinx our snow chances. Poor Chris Mantle, devised a superb, self calculating Excel Spreadsheet. He then sadly became ill and passed away. I then had my Haemorrhagic Stroke, in Sept.2015. So I think it was a jinx on two fronts, snow chances and health!! 

But have no fear. I certainly have no plans, to host another one.  Besides, I think my brain would "blow-up", for a second time!!

Regards,

Tom.  

[snowray]

I'm waiting patiently for the 18z ICON, that low must stay further north, It MUST I TELL YOU!

[Hammer]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

I'm waiting patiently for the 18z ICON, that low must stay further north, It MUST I TELL YOU!

Note the Icon was showing it furthest south earlier so if next run it is further north similar to GFS, UKMO. Would be good.

[Mark wheeler]

4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I dare anyone to go in the mod thread and post AT LEAST IT WILL BE MILD

Do It  , I Dare you , your reward is dump hole will get a foot of snow .

obviously I can’t promise you that

Edited January 27, 2019 by Mark wheeler

[Milocation]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Do It  , I Dare you , your reward is dump hole will get a foot of snow .

obviously I can’t promise you that

if you make it 2 foot of snow it's a deal 

 

[Delka]

Damaging strong winds out there currently, been going for hours with trees down on a few local roads and power outages being reported in a village nearby..  but worst of all, it's bin night and our bin has blown over